Kalin Lucas

Blah Blah Blah Tarheels this  Tarheels that. Tyler Hansbrough best center ever blah blah. Ty Lawson awesome yadda yadda yadda. Aren’t all Big Ten fans tired of hearing about the ACC? I was after the freakin’ tipoff special with Dick Vitale basically handing someone in the conference the NCAA championship before it had begun.

There’s only one team standing in the way of the North Carolina Tarheels. And that’s the Michigan State Spartans.

Yes, they are heavy underdogs. Yes the Tarheels have looked fantastic in the tournament overall. But, just like in the UCONN game, you cannot discount MSU at the very least. They CAN beat North Carolina. Here’s how:

1) Aggressive, Aggressive, Aggressive.

The Spartans must be playing tight D and pushing the ball as much as they can. Does this spell a possibility for foul trouble on MSU? Yes, but it also spells a possibility of foul trouble on UNC. This could end up being Michigan State’s biggest ally–or enemy. Either way, gotta play aggressive for 40 minutes if they want to win this game.

2) Extend the game–on both sides.

North Carolina has quite a few players that can stroke the 3, and it proved to be the killer in the Villanova game for the Wildcats. If Michigan State will extend their defense to the arc considerably, they will be able to contend shots and hopefully be able to frustrate the Tarheels. Offensively, that means having Goran Suton out by the perimeter a little more and extending Hansbrough, allowing for a bit more “flexing” of the offense. The Spartans will look to some good three point shooting of their own to keep themselves in a winning position.

3) Stick to the game plan.

One of the things that North Carolina dictates is tempo, but Michigan State is a far cry from the norm that UNC has. If the Spartans can control the rhythm of the game and possibly change it up–pushing the ball for a bit, then settling into a half court and so on and so forth, it can possibly get the talented Tarheels a bit off balance. It certainly paid dividends against UCONN.

4) The bench has to step up.

Let’s face it. The starting five for UNC is incredible, with each guy able to drop 30 on you at any time. Not that Michigan State’s guys are far off, but the X factor will be the play of Luscious Jackson, Draymond Green, Marquise Gray, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers. These guys again played very well in the Semis against UCONN (Well, Allen really didn’t…) and it proved to be a big difference as to the runaway victory against the Huskies.

5) Tom Izzo

I know I keep on beating this drum loud and proud, but I really think that Izzo is the best coach in the country. He has the heart and soul, the planning, and the familial relationship with his players that make them go that extra mile. Izzo will be certain to have his squad ready, and he will certainly push UNC as hard as he can to get the victory in Motown.

Sure, call it a homer pick. Call it a blind leap of faith. What I call it is a prediction based on education, a hypothesis based on research, per se.

Michigan State beats UCONN.

It doesn’t have quite the ring as “Dewey Defeats Truman”, but it’s close. While that may seem a little dramatic, really the only shot that pretty much anyone gave the Spartans for defeating the dominating Huskies was due to the fact that they were playing 90 miles from home. But in the end, it didn’t take a last second shot or home crowd surge for MSU to take the game–nope, it was classic Tom Izzo, dissecting the Huskies piece by piece, frustration by frustration, and it was such a team effort that I am sure many left going “wow, I didn’t realize…”

Of course you didn’t. Why would you? The media has basically showered the Big East and ACC with accolades since day 1 of the season, and the Big Ten once again was labeled as the ugly stepsister that was brought to the dance just to make fun of.

Who’s laughing now, guys? Your mighty mighty Big East not only is NOT going to win the championship, they aren’t even going to have a team in the final. And the ugly stepsister suddenly is a step away from grabbing the crown from Miss America….so what do you think now?

Haters will again cling to home advantage, say the refs called a bad game, say the Spartans got lucky.

You know what I say?

I told you so.

At the end of every NCAA basketball season, several players pop up on the NBA radars as possibilities for the upcoming draft in June. Regardless of whether they are seniors or not, the media and all kinds of pundits start prognosticating the players’ chances at the pro level. For the bulk of the NCAA tournament, the rumors were coming in loud and clear that Purdue center JaJuan Johnson may be one of those chosen ones.

Why? Well, for the statistics side of things, he was a solid choice–all Big Ten first team for the talent-laden Boilermakers and a very good tournament–and plus for being a player that was not even mentioned alongside fellow Robbie Hummel at the beginning of the season, Johnson was certainly a huge, pleasant surprise.

And he had a story too–there was a lot of coverage of his mother’s travels to the NCAA games due to people assisting in getting her there. It was truly a feel good story, and with a family that could use the money, it would seem the most natural step for Johnson would be to throw his hat into the NBA ring.

Not going to happen…at least this year.

Johnson has opted to stay at Purdue for his junior year, and you can bet that the Purdue offense will be certainly churning with him in the mix–a year older, a year wiser, a year more experienced.

Yikes.

Basketball betting

I follow a lot of betting lines on Wagerline.com to see how trends go, and let’s be honest–to give me some headway into games I am interested in throwing some money on. The early line for the Michigan State-UCONN game was the Huskies being favored by 4, and bettors have been eating it up–in favor of UCONN, as the consensus shows at the time of this writing that almost 70% of picks think Connecticut will cover.

The line therefore will probably move up then as books try to get people to put more money on Michigan State, and while 4 points may seem a no brainer on paper, if it goes to six or more, I may be prone to throw my cash at it. Because I certainly think that the Spartans are going to play this one tight and go against the grain.

The over/under is now at 135, and I would HAVE to think with the offensive firepower that both teams have showed over the past few games that it should clear this, and it seems that betters are certainly thinking the same, as the percentages show almost 2/3 of bets going towards the over.

What do you think?

Goran Suton

Michigan State apparently didn’t read the script. You see, the top seeded #1 seed Louisville Cardinals had just rolled over Arizona like they were a high school team and they were on the brink to going to Motown for the Final Four. Unfortunately, Tom Izzo crashed the party with a fierce and ferocious Big Ten style and basically embarrassed the Cardinals as the Spartans reached the Final Four for the fifth time this decade.

And like so much of what college basketball is about, they cannot rest on this laurel. They now face the mighty mighty Connecticut Huskies in the semifinal game. And they are already underdogs, as expected.

So the thought is that with the Huskies basically ransacking their entire regional and truly looking like the team to beat in the entire tournament–that Michigan State is overmatched. But are they? While UCONN has had a monstrous inside presence, they haven’t had to face up against the sudden superstar Goran Suton, who WILL stretch the defense out to the perimeter. Delvon Roe may present a bit of a match up issue with his rugged athleticism, and while A.J. Price is the stud for UCONN at guard, Michigan State may have an equalizer in Travis Walton as well.

The fact of the matter is this: if Tom Izzo could take down the high-flying Cardinals with less than 48 hour prep, what makes you think that with a week to prep for the Huskies he can’t do the same thing? The Spartans are deep–much deeper than people really think—and they match up well with UCONN. The biggest telltale sign of this game truly will be foul issues–if MSU can stay clean, they could be standing tall at the end. But if they get in trouble early, expect for UCONN to exploit whatever weakness that brings.

Don’t underestimate the heart of this team–especially with having the “home” advantage being very close to Detroit. No one gave them a chance against Louisville, said they got lucky against Kansas, and here they are. Once again being told they aren’t going to win. And that’s exactly how Tom Izzo likes it.

Travis Walton

Michigan State and Purdue had some big time struggles in their second round games, with each coming down to the waning minutes before both teams snatched victory. From a seeding standpoint, Purdue was the only mild upset, with a 5 over a 4 seed in Washington. But in everyone else’s case for the Big Ten seeds, they lost and are not in the Sweet 16.  So was it really all that a surprise that only 2 of 7 got further?

Ten NCAA Observations about the Big Ten

1) Illinois could have been the biggest disappointment of the bunch. The Illini really never had a chance in their game against Western Kentucky and only a flourish at the end made it respectable. Bruce Weber better get the offense more consistent next year if the Illini want to improve.

2) Travis Walton showed fans across the country just how deep the Michigan State Spartans are with his offensive performance against USC. If things like this keep happening, the grins will be permanent in East Lansing.

3) Michigan definitely has reason to believe that they are certainly a team of the future. They beat a good Clemson team and gave Oklahoma all they could handle before folding.

4) Purdue hasn’t been winning pretty, but that doesn’t matter at this point of the game. Their depth is also something to take note of and they will need every bit of it against the white-hot UCONN Huskies.

5) Minnesota certainly impressed me in their game against Texas. I personally thought that the game was almost unwinnable as soon as I heard it announced, and the Gophers really played the Longhorns with every bit of heart they had. Tubby Smith ought to be very proud of his team and excited about their future.

6) Ohio State’s loss to Siena was kind of surprising–kind of. Siena was actually one of those teams that everyone thought could make a run–and even though the Buckeyes were playing decently close to home,  I still thought that Evan Turner would win this game for OSU. But don’t fret–I got a feeling he’ll be back and very tough next year.

7) Wisconsin’s first round victory over Florida State should have given a bit of respect to the naysayers of the Big Ten. A win over Xavier would have solidified the legitimacy of the conference. Now it’s up to the Boilers and Spartans to keep the conference faith alive.

Proponents of the Big East have said that this is best conference ever according to the talent in this year’s pool. Well, I gotta say that they are not too far from the truth. It’s clear these teams know how to win, and unlike the Big Ten teams who had their chances, can close when it counts.

9) JaJuan Johnson is quickly becoming a huge X factor in almost all Purdue games and his NBA stock is rising exponentially. While he has said he intends on returning next year, he also hasn’t ruled out going pro. I think it all depends on his performance against UCONN that may make the difference on that huge of a stage.

10) The Kansas-Michigan State match up is really an interesting one. Michigan State beat them pretty bad a couple of months ago, but Kansas has improved greatly–winning 16 of their last 19. Izzo definitely knows how to plan for this team, but can he beat them again? Bill Self certainly has the pedigree in the tournament now to really question that…

Ohhh, the horror. Wisconsin a 12 seed? Wow. But as anyone can attest, if there’s any place to be in the NCAA tournament as an underdog,

Bo Ryan and Trevon Hughes

it’s the 12 seed–as the history tells us that the 12 seed is actually very successful in terms of upsets. And the Badgers are playing good ball, despite getting beat in their opening round game of the Big 10 tournament.

The first round match up is against Florida State, a basketball team that was able to make it to the ACC Final after upsetting North Carolina who was sans Ty Lawson. They lost to Duke, but in the process, the 25-9 Seminoles were able to garner the 5 seed–but while this is a good seed, some think it should have been higher. Still, this is no cakewalk for the Seminoles, as the tournament-tested Badgers will bring their best Bo Ryan game to Boise in what should be an awesome game overall.

The Seminoles are talented and tall, but not rugged at all. They have streaky shooters and are not all that great defensively, but Wisconsin is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The key to this game will be if Florida State can hold on to the basketball, as their guards have had a tendency to be sloppy at times. And with Wisconsin continuing to be a solid defensive team, they may be the Achilles heel for the upstart Seminoles.

If the Badgers can make it past the Seminoles, they’ll likely face Xavier in the second round, the 4 seed. The X-men won the regular season title in the Atlantic 10, but the conference overall was not as strong as it normally has been in the past, and overall the only big wins the Musketeers got was over Memphis and LSU. Other than that, Xavier really doesn’t have much to impress me. Still, this is a very athletic who can score in chunks and provide match up issues with the Badgers if they can control the tempo.

Predicted Outlook: The Badgers can certainly beat the Seminoles if they are on their game and Xavier as well. Asking more than that is probably too muchm but if they make it to the Sweet Sixteen, that will be a huge coup for Big Ten fans.

Mike Tisdale

The Illini are somewhat of an enigma in this NCAA tournament. Yes, they have the numbers in terms of quality wins and overal win-loss record, and a rich history of successful basketball to boot. So why is it that Illinois is the fave pick to get upset by Western Kentucky in the first round? Well, there are a couple of reasons, some of which are justified, some of which aren’t.

First of all, Illinois has a tough road ahead without Chester Frazier. The man does not score a lot of points, but being a “coach” on the floor has really helped along some of the younger problems and also has provided a great defensive player for the Illini. Second of all, the Illinois offense is nothing but consistent. And the X factor usually goes around Demetri McCamey, who is either red-hot or ice cold, as evidenced by several performances where he scored over 20 and then there were games were he posted a goose egg. As McCamey goes, so go the Illini. And facing a team like Western Kentucky, who many think deserved much better than a 12, the Illini aren’t playing against a team that is just happy to make it to the dance.

On the other hand, Mike Davis has really come into his own over the last several games, providing great rebounding and a soft touch to really become a great player. Mike Tisdale has also become a go-to scorer for the Illini, and his height and shooting touch could prove to be a big impact on the Illini’s success in the tournament–or lack thereof. Tisdale has had foul problems as of late, probably because he is slower than molasses.

The Hilltoppers form a lot of challenges for the Illini, but if there’s something the Illini rely upon, it’s quick ball movement, high assist to turnovers, and great defense. Western Kentucky is a decent offensive team, but nothing that the Illini can’t deny and shut down with a good effort. The Hilltoppers have good guard play, but that is where the Illini excel at defending. I am going against the trend here.

Predicted Result: Win

2nd round: Gonzaga/Akron

Gonzaga is almost a sure call here. The Zags have a great lineup and while they always take heat for not having a great conference, don’t forget that Dick Vitale picked the Zags to be in the Final Four at the beginning of the year. They have only lost one game in 2009, and there team is as deep as many of the best teams out there. If Illinois can win the first round, they will have their hands full–way too full.

Predicted result: Loss

Minnesota has been the subject of some pretty large lashback from the national basketball “scene”, particularly in the fact that many have

Ralph Sampson III

been claiming that the Golden Gophers should not have made the NCAA tournament as an at-large team but rather that it should have been Penn State.

I agree.

Penn State had a better record, better Big Ten place, and had a stronger nonconference schedule. The Nittany Lions won 9 of their last 15, the Gophers 6 of their last 15. I know there can be all kinds of arguments back and forth, but it is what it is. Minnesota is in, and their prize is a 10 seed and face 7 seed Texas in the first round of the tournament. The Longhorns, who started off 11-2, played choppy basketball beyond that, going 11-9 the rest of the way. Texas owns wins over UCLA, Villanova, and Oklahoma, but also lost to Arkansas and Nebraska.  Texas resembles more of a Big Ten team than a Big 12 team with not a whole heckuvalot of offense. The defense is suspect at best.

Texas is very balanced offensevely, being led by star A.J. Abrams who can shoot from anywhere and can score a lot of points if needed. Damion James is one of the more underrated players in the country, averaging over 15 points and almost 10 boards a game. He will present match up nightmares for the Gophers.

But don’t underestimate Tubby Smith’s ability to prepare for a game. The Gophers certainly have the “sticktuitiveness” to grind this game out and put points on the board, if they can hang on to the ball, which has been a major issue with Minnesota this season. The game doesn’t give much of an edge with location, so it really comes down to just who plays the better game–and in this case, I’d love to be able to say that Minnesota pulls the mini-upset, but I think that James will have his way down deep and lead the Longhorns to a tough victory.

Predicted Result: Loss

Even if Minnesota is able to win a gutsy game, they will likely face Duke basically in their backyard in Greensboro, NC, and that will make a game that is already one-sdied even worse. Sorry, Gophers fans, I am certainly happy for the turnaround in the program, but it is not in the cards for really much at all this go-round.

Matt Painter

Purdue is on a roll. There’s no questioning that. The Boilermakers had a shaky start to the Big Ten season but finished with a flourish, finally having everyone healthy and taking the Big Ten tournament title in Indianapolis. They didn’t necessarily “need” the title to get into the NCAA tournament, but one would certainly assume that the Boilers would get a pretty darn good seed.

Well, in my estimation, they didn’t.

Perhaps that’s just because I am biased towards the Big Ten, but when you consider that Michigan State, who won the regular season title by 4 games, got a 2 seed..umm…something is wrong here. Not to diss Michigan State by any means, but the Boilers split the season series with them, finished tied for 2nd, and they get a 5? Hmmm…methinks I smell a rat.

Maybe it was the committee’s guilt for putting so many Big Ten teams in that they didn’t want to give too much “cred” to someone other than the Spartans, but getting the cursed “5″ seed is just wrong for a team as good as Purdue. So then, what’s the realistic outlook for the Boilermakers?

Game 1: Northern Iowa

The 23-10 Panthers barely eeked by Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference final, but they still are a good team. The Boilermakers and Panthers share common opponents in Iowa and Indiana State, which Purdue went 3-0 against, UNI went 1-2. Northern Iowa is more disciplined than peopleknow, but Purdue is just too deep for the Panthers to keep up. Predicted result: WIN

Game 2: Winner of Washington/Mississippi State

Washington would prove to be a curious match up for Purdue, as the Huskies are 25-8 and won the regular season Pac 10 title. With the fact that they are playing basically closest to home than any team in the regional (Portland), Washington has a clear advantage over Mississippi State. They have a good offense (topping 80 points 16 times this season) and a decent defense. They are hitting their stride at the right time, winning 9 of their last 11.

But Mississippi State has done the same–winning the SEC tournament after beating LSU and Tennessee and winning six in a row. Still, I don’t think that they will upend the Huskies in their own backyard. So, with Purdue facing off against the Huskies, we’ve got a real situation with a grind-it-out Boiler team versus a scoring Huskie team. So, which prevails? At this point, I am a firm believer that defense is much more consistent than offense–especially in the tourney–so despite the fact that Purdue will be playing them in Portland, I truly think that in the end Purdue takes this nailbiter with some disciplined play and lockdown late-game defense.Predicted result: WIN

Game 3: UCONN/BYU/Texas A&M

Let’s just go with the seeding route here and say that UCONN will be facing Purdue at this point. The Huskies (hmmm, coincidence?) are one of the most solid teams in the nation and their athleticism is rivaled by only a few teams in the entire country. They are balanced and play a voracious defense, so it would take a near-perfect game from all players on Purdue to win this game. While Matt Painter will certainly be happy with a Sweet Sixteen bid for this game, the Boilers won’t go farther than this game–barring an upset by BYU or the Aggies. If that’s the case, Purdue could be playing for the Final Four, which is not a huge surprise–to me. Predicted Result: Vs. UCONN, Loss.