Remember Kansas? The cinderella from last year’s NCAA football season that didn’t go so quietly into the night? Well, they are back in the bowl season, and while the Insight Bowl was for sure below their hopes, it still gives them postseason promise for a school that is rock-chalk basketball all the way around. Continue making bowls and we will have to–gasp–consider Kansas an all-purpose school!

Minnesota, on the other hand, had a chance to play the same role that Kansas did last year, streaking out to an amazing 7-1 record with their sole loss to perennial Big Ten bully Ohio State. But then, seemingly with one fluke play, the Golden Gophers’ wheels fell off. Northwestern’s interception which gave the Wildcats the win almost knocked the full wind out of Minnesota and they then went on to lost 4 straight, backing into the Insight Bowl bid. While this team was still higher than almost everyone’s expectations after going 1-11 the previous year, after starting that hot, a 7-5 regular season finish was definitely disappointing to Big Ten fans and especially Gopher fanatics.

Looking at Minnesota’s schedule for the year, the 7-5 record shows the following statistics: all 7 wins were against teams that didn’t make bowls, and 4 of 5 were to teams that did. So, one could really surmise that while Minnesota is competitive, when facing an increased level of competition, the Gophers aren’t quite ready to face the national scene.  While it can be said that losing Duane Bennett for the season mid-October certainly hurt, the curious case of Adam Weber still has me scratching my head.  A double threat last year, his rushing yards this year were a third of what they were in 07-08. Now, something can be said for the fact that Weber had very little to hand off to last year, but you would think that it would then translate to more passing yards than the year before; this is not the case, and Weber has thrown 10 less TDs than during the 1-11 campaign. Sure, he cut down his interceptions, but through the last three games where the Gophers have gotten beat, his line:

Michigan, Loss 29-6: 105 passing yards, 0 TDS, 1 INT

Wisconsin, Loss 35-32: 202-3-1

Iowa, Loss 55-0: 127-0-2

That’s just plain awful. In order for Minnesota to have any chance versus the Jayhawks, Weber will need to step up and give Mr. Everything Eric Decker the chance to really show his stuff.They should have plenty of chances to do so against Kansas, which ranked 114th in passing yards allowed.

Kansas finished 7-5 as well, and only 1 of their wins came against a bowl team, while all 5 of their losses were to bowl teams. The Jayhawks are lead by Todd Reesing, Jake Sharp, and Dezmon Briscoe, who are QB, RB, and WR respectively, to form an offensive juggernaut that is 8th in the nation in terms of passing yards and averages nearly 33 points a game. While the Big 12 isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart of a conference, it’s still notable.  The ‘Hawks come into the Insight on a high note, eeking out Missouri 40-37 to take Auntie Mo’ on to their team in this match up of 7-5 teams.

While on paper this game looks decently matched, the Jayhawks are currently a 9 point favorite and people are betting very heavy on Kansas to cover the spread. I concur. Minnesota is certainly a good team and has impressed me, but they are way overmatched in this game.

The Big Tenet’s prediction: Kansas 41, Minnesota 24

By the accounts of the polls, Northwestern is ranked #20 and Missouri #23. So the Wildcats should win, right? Not so fast my friend. In fact, this could end up being one of the more lopsided contests in the 2008-09 bowl season. Sorry to sound so glum off the bat, but it is what it is.

Missouri, by most accounts, was a legitimate national title contender through the first several games of the season. With Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel at the helm and arguably one of the best receivers in the country in Jeremi Maclin, the Tigers were primed to hang with the other teams in the Big 12. Problem was that while Mizzou was a very good team, many of the other teams made such huge strides in the talent department that it proved to be a lethal combination in Missouri’s season; considering that their 4 losses were against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas, 3 of those 4 losses were against teams that were ranked in the top 5 at one time and 1 that is playing in the national title game. Sure, they got bombed in the Big 12 title game, but that doesn’t underscore how good this team is.

Boy, it sure seems like I am a Big 12 fan, doesn’t it?

Well, I am not. I am a Big Ten fan. And if anyone has been following my posts this year, you know that I have great admiration and respect for the Northwestern Wildcats.  In fact, one may surmise that I am always crushing on Pat Fitzgerald’s crew.  C.J. Bacher is still a very good QB, but his stats are a fraction of what they were the year previous, and he only has 14 TDs and 14 INTs. Not exactly the ratio that a coach likes. Yes, he had some injury issues, but that is an issue in itself.  Losing Tyrell Sutton for the season was devastating to the overall offensive scheme since he kept defenses honest. Granted, the Wildcats are 9-3 and own wins against Minnesota, Iowa, and…..ummmm…..uhhh…Illinois? Michigan? Yeah…that’s about it.  Considering that NW didn’t even play Penn State or Wisconsin and lost to the other 2 top teams by a combined 82-30, the 9-3 record doesn’t look so shiny.

Missouri is currently a 12 point favorite and the money is hot and heavy after the Tigers. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ending line is well over 2 TD by gametime….and they should cover this with ease.

The Big Tenet’s prediction: Missouri 42 Northwestern 21

Alright, so I totally missed on the Northwestern pick which gave me another week of being 1 more loss than ESPN’s pro Adam Rittenberg. Ah well. At least on the spread picks I was 4-2, so over the last two weeks I am 7-4-1. I’m up, I’m up!

(Now, if I could only have the cahones to actually put up the stakes…)

This next week gives a few more tough games to pick, especially with the spreads, but I am man enough to do ‘em (well, on paper that is :)))

Iowa vs Indiana: Iowa -5

Iowa’s defense has given up 11.2 pts per game this year…Indiana has yet to win ATS this year…Indiana has given up average of 431 ypg on offense last three…The over has hit the last 3 games played between these teams…Iowa has lost 3 in a row by a combined 9 points…Indiana has lost last three by an average of 2 TDs per game…

Michigan vs. Toledo: Michigan -16.5

Illinois vs. Minnesota: Minnesota +12.5

• Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
• Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Fighting Illini are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Purdue vs. Ohio St.: Purdue +19

• Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Boilermakers are 8-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Boilermakers are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss.
• Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
• Buckeyes are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.

Michigan St. vs. Northwestern: Northwestern +1

• Spartans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
• Wildcats are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win.

Penn St. vs. Wisconsin: Penn St. -6

• Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
• Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Badgers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Badgers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home games.
• Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Yeah, yeah, let the ribbing begin.

Thanks to a last minute drive by upstart freshman Terrelle Pryor and a Buckeyes team that was not to be denied, it allowed for Ohio State to defeat Wisconsin in Madison, and in the process, give my picks the only blemish for the week. It was enough to provide my match up with ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, the prolific sports site Big Ten guru, a perfect mark and week one win over the Big Tenet.

Oh my, what ever will I do? Now my record stands at 21-4, while Rittenberg’s overall is 43-7.  So he has a slight edge, ok?? So now we begin…right?

(Hey, anything to ease the pain of the oh-so-close loss.) Ah well….

At least in the betting category I stayed on the up side, winning 3 of 5 ATS bets. Again, that darn Pryor kept me going 4-1, but oh well. I’ll take +100 for the week

Indiana (2-2) at Minnesota (4-1): Minnesota -7

Betting Statistics: Gophers are 3-1 against the spread this year…Indiana has yet to win against the spread in 2008…Over Under is 58-combined this year both teams are 5-2 for the over….both teams have given up more than 350 yards per game on defense for the last three games…First road game for Indiana this year…Gophers are 3-0 this year at home.

The Big Tenet’s Bet: Take the Gophers with confidence. The over is a good bet as well.

Penn State (5-0) at Purdue (2-1): Penn State -13

Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS this year…Boilermakers are 1-2…Penn State is averaging 49.8 points a game…Boilermakers are giving up nearly 27 a game, Nittany Lions giving up 13…Penn State is 3-1 in the Over/Under…57 is the over/under for this game…Purdue has given up nearly 440 yards per game this year after playing high octane offenses Oregon, Central Michigan, and Notre Dame…The under has won the last six games of this series

The Big Tenet’s Bet: Penn State is on a roll and Purdue is spinning out of control. The under may have won the last six, but I’ll take the over as Penn State could easily score 40 on these guys.

Illinois (2-2) at Michigan (2-2): Illinois +2.5

Both teams are a combined 2-5 ATS…Illinois’ losses this year have come to teams ranked in the top 10…Michigan’s win last week at home was biggest comeback in Ann Arbor ever…Over under is 52.5…Combined, teams are 5-2 for the over…Michigan has given up 325 yards per game at home, 285 total for year…Illinois has averaged 415 yards per game on offense for last three…Michigan has given up average of 89 ypg on ground this year…Illinois averages 33 per game, Michigan 20

The Big Tenet’s Bet: Illinois took Penn State deep into the fourth quarter but their special teams failed them once again. Michigan had no business winning against Wisconsin and with Illinois trying to gain respect, look for Arrelious Benn to own the Wolverines’ secondary. I’m staying away from the O/U, but if you put a gun to my head, I’d take the under.

Iowa (3-2) at Michigan St (4-1): Michigan St -8

After losing first game, Michigan State has won 4 straight by an average of nearly 20 ppg…Iowa is 2-2 ATS this year, Michigan State 3-2…Over/Under is 44…All Iowa’s games have hit the under this year…MSU is 2-3 for the over this year…Michigan state has averaged nearly 400 ypg this year on offense–200 on the ground…Iowa has given up only average of 10 ppg…Iowa has given up nearly 325 ypg over last three…Home team has won the last 8 games…Favored team has won the last four…

The Big Tenet’s Bet: Michigan State has looked like an offensive juggernaut over the last few weeks. Javon Ringer doesn’t seem to be able to be stopped, and after Iowa had the wind taken out of their sails against Northwestern, the Spartans will take advantage. The Over/Under seems to scream under, but with MSU’s offensive capability, I’m staying away from this one.

Ohio State (4-1) at Wisconsin (3-1): Wisconsin +1.5

Ohio State is 0-4 ATS…Wisconsin is 2-2…Over/Under is 44…combined, teams are 4-4 O/U this season…Wisconsin is 2-7 over last 9 conference games ATS…Underdog is 7-1 ATS over last 8….Wisconsin has averaged 72 ypg on the ground at home this year, Ohio State averages 71 ypg on the road…Wisconsin averages 413 ypg on offense for the year, 391 over last three…

The Big Tenet’s Bet: Wisconsin should not have lost at Michigan, that’s a given. Ohio State has talent with Terrelle Pryor, but a freshman playing at Wisconsin is not a good combination. Look for Bielema’s Bunch to cover.