Travis Walton

Michigan State and Purdue had some big time struggles in their second round games, with each coming down to the waning minutes before both teams snatched victory. From a seeding standpoint, Purdue was the only mild upset, with a 5 over a 4 seed in Washington. But in everyone else’s case for the Big Ten seeds, they lost and are not in the Sweet 16.  So was it really all that a surprise that only 2 of 7 got further?

Ten NCAA Observations about the Big Ten

1) Illinois could have been the biggest disappointment of the bunch. The Illini really never had a chance in their game against Western Kentucky and only a flourish at the end made it respectable. Bruce Weber better get the offense more consistent next year if the Illini want to improve.

2) Travis Walton showed fans across the country just how deep the Michigan State Spartans are with his offensive performance against USC. If things like this keep happening, the grins will be permanent in East Lansing.

3) Michigan definitely has reason to believe that they are certainly a team of the future. They beat a good Clemson team and gave Oklahoma all they could handle before folding.

4) Purdue hasn’t been winning pretty, but that doesn’t matter at this point of the game. Their depth is also something to take note of and they will need every bit of it against the white-hot UCONN Huskies.

5) Minnesota certainly impressed me in their game against Texas. I personally thought that the game was almost unwinnable as soon as I heard it announced, and the Gophers really played the Longhorns with every bit of heart they had. Tubby Smith ought to be very proud of his team and excited about their future.

6) Ohio State’s loss to Siena was kind of surprising–kind of. Siena was actually one of those teams that everyone thought could make a run–and even though the Buckeyes were playing decently close to home,  I still thought that Evan Turner would win this game for OSU. But don’t fret–I got a feeling he’ll be back and very tough next year.

7) Wisconsin’s first round victory over Florida State should have given a bit of respect to the naysayers of the Big Ten. A win over Xavier would have solidified the legitimacy of the conference. Now it’s up to the Boilers and Spartans to keep the conference faith alive.

Proponents of the Big East have said that this is best conference ever according to the talent in this year’s pool. Well, I gotta say that they are not too far from the truth. It’s clear these teams know how to win, and unlike the Big Ten teams who had their chances, can close when it counts.

9) JaJuan Johnson is quickly becoming a huge X factor in almost all Purdue games and his NBA stock is rising exponentially. While he has said he intends on returning next year, he also hasn’t ruled out going pro. I think it all depends on his performance against UCONN that may make the difference on that huge of a stage.

10) The Kansas-Michigan State match up is really an interesting one. Michigan State beat them pretty bad a couple of months ago, but Kansas has improved greatly–winning 16 of their last 19. Izzo definitely knows how to plan for this team, but can he beat them again? Bill Self certainly has the pedigree in the tournament now to really question that…

Mike Tisdale

The Illini are somewhat of an enigma in this NCAA tournament. Yes, they have the numbers in terms of quality wins and overal win-loss record, and a rich history of successful basketball to boot. So why is it that Illinois is the fave pick to get upset by Western Kentucky in the first round? Well, there are a couple of reasons, some of which are justified, some of which aren’t.

First of all, Illinois has a tough road ahead without Chester Frazier. The man does not score a lot of points, but being a “coach” on the floor has really helped along some of the younger problems and also has provided a great defensive player for the Illini. Second of all, the Illinois offense is nothing but consistent. And the X factor usually goes around Demetri McCamey, who is either red-hot or ice cold, as evidenced by several performances where he scored over 20 and then there were games were he posted a goose egg. As McCamey goes, so go the Illini. And facing a team like Western Kentucky, who many think deserved much better than a 12, the Illini aren’t playing against a team that is just happy to make it to the dance.

On the other hand, Mike Davis has really come into his own over the last several games, providing great rebounding and a soft touch to really become a great player. Mike Tisdale has also become a go-to scorer for the Illini, and his height and shooting touch could prove to be a big impact on the Illini’s success in the tournament–or lack thereof. Tisdale has had foul problems as of late, probably because he is slower than molasses.

The Hilltoppers form a lot of challenges for the Illini, but if there’s something the Illini rely upon, it’s quick ball movement, high assist to turnovers, and great defense. Western Kentucky is a decent offensive team, but nothing that the Illini can’t deny and shut down with a good effort. The Hilltoppers have good guard play, but that is where the Illini excel at defending. I am going against the trend here.

Predicted Result: Win

2nd round: Gonzaga/Akron

Gonzaga is almost a sure call here. The Zags have a great lineup and while they always take heat for not having a great conference, don’t forget that Dick Vitale picked the Zags to be in the Final Four at the beginning of the year. They have only lost one game in 2009, and there team is as deep as many of the best teams out there. If Illinois can win the first round, they will have their hands full–way too full.

Predicted result: Loss

Chester frazier Mike Tisdale Bruce Weber

This by far at this point is one of the more intriguing games of the tournament. Yes, Wisconsin and Ohio State should be a really good game, but the Illinois-Michigan battle really has a lot of things that could happen here. With senior captain Chester Frazier out for this game and possibly longer, the Illini will look for leadership that will be sorely missed with Frazier’s absence. The Illini also have been great defensively all year but suspect on the offensive end from time to time, and usually the X factor has been Trent Meachem. When he’s hot, the Illini usually roll, but when he’s off, everyone seems to struggle. As the purest shooter on the team, that’s no surprise. For Illinois to improve their seeding in this tournament, they will need large performances from Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale and hope that Alex Legion can get his stuff together NOW.

Michigan, on the other hand, has really kicked things up a notch and beat the living crap out of Iowa. Not to disrespect the Hawkeyes, but while this game wasn’t ALL that difficult even on paper, the fact that Michigan embarrassed the Hawks by almost 30 is something you simply can’t ignore. So the question is, will the hot shooting continue against Illinois, or will there be a fatigue factor involved?

Big Tenet’s Prediction: Michigan 69 Illinois 66

Yes, my first upset pick. The teams split the series and played evenly against each other in both matchups, but the loss of Frazier will really have an impact on the team’s chemistry, especially if it’s Legion who has to log more minutes, because frankly I have yet to see him embrace the “team” concept the Illini employ. Likewise, with the Wolverines shooting the lights out and with some of the three point prowess they have, it’s likely that this game will come down to the shooting beyond the arc, and I can really envision a shot at the buzzer winning it for Michigan. Sorry, Illini fans.

Tom Izzo

Is this a bit premature? Naah. I mean, barring a complete let down at Indiana, the Spartans will be the outright Big Ten Basketball champions for the 2008-09 season. At a minimum, they will be co-champions if they lose at Indiana and at home against Purdue. If the game today against Illinois is any indication, the Spartans will win both of these games.

Michigan State lead throughout the entire game in one of the hardest venues to win in the Big Ten, the Assembly Hall in Champaign. Every time the Illini came close to the Spartans, they always had an answer; whether it was a silky shoot runner by Durrell Summers or Raymar Morgan, or a cutting drive by Kalin Lucas, or a thunderous layup/dunk/steal by pretty much anyone on the Spartan team, the Illini just couldn’t figure the Spartans out.

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You know the story about how out of the ashes “Rises the Fiery Phoenix”? Well, this one is not so dramatic, but there are still some underlying tones to the same type of scenario. Illinois, who lost a school record 19 games last year and brought very little back to the table in terms of recruits, etc., has reversed its fortune in a big way, standing at 23-8 and still having a shot at winning the Big Ten title. Can they keep the magic alive, or will they fizzle out in a big “wah-wuhhhh” at the end of the season?

Remaining Conference Games:

vs. Michigan State   Win

Is it just me, or has Michigan State kind of looked lethargic lately? And while the Illini lost embarrassingly to Penn State over a week ago, overall they have delivered clutch performance wins down the stretch–outlasting a feisty Indiana squad in Bloomington, coming back from 11 down to beat Northwestern, outlasting Ohio State in Columbus, and bearing down on Minnesota. These types of wins tell me that the Illini will be very up for this game and with the raucous crown at the Assembly Hall, will pull out another one to keep them alive in the Big Ten race. Look for Mike Davis to lead the Illini to an emotional win.

at Penn State

Mike Davis Illinois

Illinois has much vindication at stake in this game and will still be gunning for the number one slot in the Big Ten. While this will be a nailbiter, look for the Illini to end up on top.

Big Ten Tournament: Semifinals

While Indiana has been kind to the Illini this year, if the Illini face the Spartans, Badgers or Boilermakers in the semifinals, the road will end there, which is more than likely. If it is Ohio State, Penn State, or Minnesota, the Illini should move on to the championship game. But is a Big Ten Tourney title in their grasp? Not so much. Sorry.

Postseason Tournament: NCAA

Illinois should get a 5 seed and probably will play a team like Kentucky or Cincinnati in the first round. If this is the case, yipes for Illini fans, as Illinois has certainly been bitten by the 5-12 curse (just ask Brandon Roy). But they certainly have the depth to avoid the curse, but winning a second round match up will be a challenge for this team at this point–but again, not out of the question. Illinois going to the Sweet Sixteen is a definite possibility.

Demetri McCamey

Minnesota clawed. They scraped. They couldn’t shoot worth a lick–outside of 17 layups and dunks, they were only 2 for 43…Illinois didn’t do a heckuvalot better overall, but they still were able to keep a lead, and every time it seemed like they got comfortable, the Golden Gophers would find a loose ball, grab an offensive board (Minnesota basically owned the rebound category all game), and then make it close.

But then, as the Gophers scratched their way back to within 1 at 42-41, the Illini stepped up as they went on a 10-0 run late in the game, spearheaded by a big trey by Demetri McCamey, and the Illini ended up winning the game in double digits. The win, number 23 on the year, is really beyond even Coach Bruce Weber’s expectations (of course he won’t ever tell you that) and it pretty much guaranteed at worst a fourth place finish in the Big Ten and still kept them in the Big Ten title race.

The win was even bigger because of the fact that up in Williams Arena the Gophers dominated the Fighting Illini by 23 and sets up a showdown in Champaign as the Illini face Big Ten leader Michigan State on Saturday.

Mike Tisdale Illinois

There have been some doozies in my time of watching Big Ten basketball, but none so horrifying as the Penn State-Illinois game tonight. The teams looked like grade school teams and while the commentators were pumping up the defenses of both teams, the ill-advised shots and the lack of teamwork on both parts was not typical of either of these teams. Some observations of the 38-33 debacle:

1) Why is Chester Frazier suddenly deciding to shoot–A LOT–more? For the majority of his career he has known his role as great defender and disher, and now over the last two games he has taken it upon himself to shoot the rock. Not a wise decision in my estimation.

2) I’ve often given press to Talor Battle and Jamelle Cornley for their roles in terms of leadership and have tended to forget Stanley Pringle. He didn’t do anything tonight to prove to me that I need to mention him any more than I already do, which is pretty much never.

3) Can Demetri McCamey show emotion? Ever? Or maybe just wake up?

4) Chris Babb is a decent shooter, but not as good as the commentators made him out to be. I love the quick release though.

5) Talor Battle is a straight up baller. He may have struggled for the majority of the game, but he did it when it counted. Kudos to the soph.

6) Mike Tisdale may be the slowest guy in the Big Ten. No wait, in the country. He makes Lerch look like Dee Brown.

7) Ed DeChellis is a much better coach than what people give him credit for; he could be on the verge of a special team.

Bruce Weber’s plea to his team to show more emotion was dead on, and they didn’t provide it. Illinois mailed it in before the tip.

9) Both teams basically abandoned the team game for more of an individual game, which is directly correlated to the reason why they clanged shots all night long–the defense for both teams normally forces a teamwork game to beat the other, and neither of them grasped that concept the entire game.

10) This loss more than likely dropped Illinois to no better than a 5 seed in the NCAAs, barring a huge run in the Big Ten tournament, where they have been very successful traditionally.

Mike Tisdale Illinois Fighting Illini

I went to this game in Bloomington, it was my first visit to Assembly Hall. Some observations:

1) Indiana is going to have a very special program in a couple of years. This team doesn’t have a lot of talent, but the fan support and the heart that the team shows for Tom Crean can only make them greater as they get more recruits and experience.

2) Illinois has no killer instince. Sure, it was on the road, but they were up 17 at half and let the Hoosiers creep back to a six point deficit. This could prove lethal in the Big Ten tournament and NCAAs.

3) Matt Roth can SHOOT. Good lord this kid can shoot. Hands down, one of the most pure shooters in the conference.

4) Mike Tisdale may be the best shooting big man in the conference, and quite possibly may have the most consistent range in the country for his size. He gains any quickness and bulk and retains this shooting ability and he will be collecting NBA paychecks for a while.

5) Indiana fans do not like Bruce Weber. In fact, they HATE Weber. I heard so many off-color comments about the former Purdue assistant and Illinois coach symbolized a bitter disdain for everything he does. I’ve seen some rivalries, but as long as Weber is there, this could be the prime event for IU and Illinois fans for years.

6) Assemby Hall is a truly unique basketball facility, and I know I am not any skinny minnie, but I did not particularly care for the fact that if the person in front of me sat directly back in their chair their head was almost in my crotch. No joking.

7) Mike Davis doesn’t jump in the air, he glides. He was very smooth all game long and grabbed 10 boards–he could have easily grabbed 15.

Indiana fans have to be some of the most rabid I have ever seen. I’d love to go to a game some time in East Lansing, because I have heard how raucous they can be, but all in all these fans love their Crimson and Cream. With vigor.

9) In comparison, Illinois fans have to be some of the most boring I have seen. While the Orange Krush is an awesome student section, the rest of the crowd usually acts like they are just simply unimpressed most of every game unless they are “primed” for a big game, etc. Other than that, it’s just like watching a pick up game the majority of the time.

10) Chester Frazier has NCAA coach written all over him. It may not be now, but rest assured within a decade you’ll see him at the helm of a Division 1 team.

Minnesota’s last few games haven’t been pretty, as they lost to Northwestern and Purdue, and then eeked out a road win against seemingly hapless Indiana. So going into the game against the red-hot Illinois Fighting Illini didn’t seem like a great thing in terms of timing, especially considering the fact that the Illini had scorched the Golden Gophers with a 20-game winning streak–that’s right, Minnesota hadn’t beaten Illinois in the 21st CENTURY!

Until now.

Riding a tenacious defense and the crowd at Williams Arena, the Gophers dumped the Illini 59-36 in what was just a plain ugly game all-around. But they will take it–as Coach Tubby Smith noted that hopefully the Gophers “Can build off of it”.

Illinois looked atrocious on the offensive end, being outrebounded and only 29% from the field, including 13% from three point range. The Minnesota defense rattled them early, and even coach Bruce Weber noted that the Illini looked like they just stopped moving in the second half. Meanwhile, Minnesota won the old fashioned way, with gritty determination and banging the boards with authority. This is the kind of basketball Smith loves, and if this is any indication of a turning of the tide in the Big Ten, other teams better watch out.

Steve Lavin made actually one of those “Master of the Obvious” comments during the Illinois-Ohio State game, stating that Illinois is basically the same team minus Dominique Keller and Alex Legion that lost 19 games last year. The thing is–the point he was making was that this team is now 16-3 as opposed to one from last year that just couldn’t seem to do anything and threatened Bruce Weber’s job.

So, is one year of maturity that much of a difference?

In Illinois’ case, absolutely. In the drubbing of Ohio State, the teamwork, hustle, shooting prowess, and depth made the Buckeyes just look bad all around, where Ohio State coach Thad Matta even commented that his team just looked shell-shocked in the first half, and it was every bit a part of the Illini’s great defense and shooting.

Keller had perhaps his best game of the season for the Illini, slicing inside of the match up zone, and the defense harrassed the Buckeyes into several unforced errors. While BJ Mullens had another improved game and he is showing sure signs of superstardom, it was no match for the upstart Illini overall.