Kalin Lucas

Blah Blah Blah Tarheels this  Tarheels that. Tyler Hansbrough best center ever blah blah. Ty Lawson awesome yadda yadda yadda. Aren’t all Big Ten fans tired of hearing about the ACC? I was after the freakin’ tipoff special with Dick Vitale basically handing someone in the conference the NCAA championship before it had begun.

There’s only one team standing in the way of the North Carolina Tarheels. And that’s the Michigan State Spartans.

Yes, they are heavy underdogs. Yes the Tarheels have looked fantastic in the tournament overall. But, just like in the UCONN game, you cannot discount MSU at the very least. They CAN beat North Carolina. Here’s how:

1) Aggressive, Aggressive, Aggressive.

The Spartans must be playing tight D and pushing the ball as much as they can. Does this spell a possibility for foul trouble on MSU? Yes, but it also spells a possibility of foul trouble on UNC. This could end up being Michigan State’s biggest ally–or enemy. Either way, gotta play aggressive for 40 minutes if they want to win this game.

2) Extend the game–on both sides.

North Carolina has quite a few players that can stroke the 3, and it proved to be the killer in the Villanova game for the Wildcats. If Michigan State will extend their defense to the arc considerably, they will be able to contend shots and hopefully be able to frustrate the Tarheels. Offensively, that means having Goran Suton out by the perimeter a little more and extending Hansbrough, allowing for a bit more “flexing” of the offense. The Spartans will look to some good three point shooting of their own to keep themselves in a winning position.

3) Stick to the game plan.

One of the things that North Carolina dictates is tempo, but Michigan State is a far cry from the norm that UNC has. If the Spartans can control the rhythm of the game and possibly change it up–pushing the ball for a bit, then settling into a half court and so on and so forth, it can possibly get the talented Tarheels a bit off balance. It certainly paid dividends against UCONN.

4) The bench has to step up.

Let’s face it. The starting five for UNC is incredible, with each guy able to drop 30 on you at any time. Not that Michigan State’s guys are far off, but the X factor will be the play of Luscious Jackson, Draymond Green, Marquise Gray, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers. These guys again played very well in the Semis against UCONN (Well, Allen really didn’t…) and it proved to be a big difference as to the runaway victory against the Huskies.

5) Tom Izzo

I know I keep on beating this drum loud and proud, but I really think that Izzo is the best coach in the country. He has the heart and soul, the planning, and the familial relationship with his players that make them go that extra mile. Izzo will be certain to have his squad ready, and he will certainly push UNC as hard as he can to get the victory in Motown.

Sure, call it a homer pick. Call it a blind leap of faith. What I call it is a prediction based on education, a hypothesis based on research, per se.

Michigan State beats UCONN.

It doesn’t have quite the ring as “Dewey Defeats Truman”, but it’s close. While that may seem a little dramatic, really the only shot that pretty much anyone gave the Spartans for defeating the dominating Huskies was due to the fact that they were playing 90 miles from home. But in the end, it didn’t take a last second shot or home crowd surge for MSU to take the game–nope, it was classic Tom Izzo, dissecting the Huskies piece by piece, frustration by frustration, and it was such a team effort that I am sure many left going “wow, I didn’t realize…”

Of course you didn’t. Why would you? The media has basically showered the Big East and ACC with accolades since day 1 of the season, and the Big Ten once again was labeled as the ugly stepsister that was brought to the dance just to make fun of.

Who’s laughing now, guys? Your mighty mighty Big East not only is NOT going to win the championship, they aren’t even going to have a team in the final. And the ugly stepsister suddenly is a step away from grabbing the crown from Miss America….so what do you think now?

Haters will again cling to home advantage, say the refs called a bad game, say the Spartans got lucky.

You know what I say?

I told you so.

Basketball betting

I follow a lot of betting lines on Wagerline.com to see how trends go, and let’s be honest–to give me some headway into games I am interested in throwing some money on. The early line for the Michigan State-UCONN game was the Huskies being favored by 4, and bettors have been eating it up–in favor of UCONN, as the consensus shows at the time of this writing that almost 70% of picks think Connecticut will cover.

The line therefore will probably move up then as books try to get people to put more money on Michigan State, and while 4 points may seem a no brainer on paper, if it goes to six or more, I may be prone to throw my cash at it. Because I certainly think that the Spartans are going to play this one tight and go against the grain.

The over/under is now at 135, and I would HAVE to think with the offensive firepower that both teams have showed over the past few games that it should clear this, and it seems that betters are certainly thinking the same, as the percentages show almost 2/3 of bets going towards the over.

What do you think?

Tom Izzo

Tom Izzo has always been known as a classy coach. He has always been someone who has played by the rules, recruited with vigor, and coaches with heart. He is a role model for his players and colleagues, and is one of the most noticeable names in all Big Ten sports.  He is one of the definitive Michigan State icons.

Here’s some numbers to throw at you: 1 national championship. 11 straight NCAA tournament appearances. Five Final Four appearances this decade. 7 players with All-American status. 15 All Big Ten players. A stable of coaches that learned from him that are successful Division 1 coaches. 11 players that have played in the NBA.

And it could all go away.

Why? Well, the rumors have turned from whispers into in your face questions as Kentucky fired Billy Gillispie, and the focus has shifted in terms of filling the vacancy to Izzo. Kentucky is known as one of the crown jewel’s of college basketball, and Izzo certainly has earned the position tenfold. The question is–will he?

There have been many coaches that have said that they aren’t going anywhere (i.e. Bill Self at Illinois) only to end up at greener pastures. But while some of the coaching positions remain absolutely golden–Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, UCLA–I think that Izzo is making Michigan State one of those prized schools. He is the face of Michigan State, the hope of a conference, the statesman of college basketball. Yes,  it would be a great opportunity, but Izzo isn’t about opportunity–he is a man of loyalty, and I think the only way he leaves Michigan State is by retirement. If he leaves, it will be one of the more shocking things I have ever seen in college basketball.

But stranger things have happened…

Goran Suton

Michigan State apparently didn’t read the script. You see, the top seeded #1 seed Louisville Cardinals had just rolled over Arizona like they were a high school team and they were on the brink to going to Motown for the Final Four. Unfortunately, Tom Izzo crashed the party with a fierce and ferocious Big Ten style and basically embarrassed the Cardinals as the Spartans reached the Final Four for the fifth time this decade.

And like so much of what college basketball is about, they cannot rest on this laurel. They now face the mighty mighty Connecticut Huskies in the semifinal game. And they are already underdogs, as expected.

So the thought is that with the Huskies basically ransacking their entire regional and truly looking like the team to beat in the entire tournament–that Michigan State is overmatched. But are they? While UCONN has had a monstrous inside presence, they haven’t had to face up against the sudden superstar Goran Suton, who WILL stretch the defense out to the perimeter. Delvon Roe may present a bit of a match up issue with his rugged athleticism, and while A.J. Price is the stud for UCONN at guard, Michigan State may have an equalizer in Travis Walton as well.

The fact of the matter is this: if Tom Izzo could take down the high-flying Cardinals with less than 48 hour prep, what makes you think that with a week to prep for the Huskies he can’t do the same thing? The Spartans are deep–much deeper than people really think—and they match up well with UCONN. The biggest telltale sign of this game truly will be foul issues–if MSU can stay clean, they could be standing tall at the end. But if they get in trouble early, expect for UCONN to exploit whatever weakness that brings.

Don’t underestimate the heart of this team–especially with having the “home” advantage being very close to Detroit. No one gave them a chance against Louisville, said they got lucky against Kansas, and here they are. Once again being told they aren’t going to win. And that’s exactly how Tom Izzo likes it.

Travis Walton

Michigan State and Purdue had some big time struggles in their second round games, with each coming down to the waning minutes before both teams snatched victory. From a seeding standpoint, Purdue was the only mild upset, with a 5 over a 4 seed in Washington. But in everyone else’s case for the Big Ten seeds, they lost and are not in the Sweet 16.  So was it really all that a surprise that only 2 of 7 got further?

Ten NCAA Observations about the Big Ten

1) Illinois could have been the biggest disappointment of the bunch. The Illini really never had a chance in their game against Western Kentucky and only a flourish at the end made it respectable. Bruce Weber better get the offense more consistent next year if the Illini want to improve.

2) Travis Walton showed fans across the country just how deep the Michigan State Spartans are with his offensive performance against USC. If things like this keep happening, the grins will be permanent in East Lansing.

3) Michigan definitely has reason to believe that they are certainly a team of the future. They beat a good Clemson team and gave Oklahoma all they could handle before folding.

4) Purdue hasn’t been winning pretty, but that doesn’t matter at this point of the game. Their depth is also something to take note of and they will need every bit of it against the white-hot UCONN Huskies.

5) Minnesota certainly impressed me in their game against Texas. I personally thought that the game was almost unwinnable as soon as I heard it announced, and the Gophers really played the Longhorns with every bit of heart they had. Tubby Smith ought to be very proud of his team and excited about their future.

6) Ohio State’s loss to Siena was kind of surprising–kind of. Siena was actually one of those teams that everyone thought could make a run–and even though the Buckeyes were playing decently close to home,  I still thought that Evan Turner would win this game for OSU. But don’t fret–I got a feeling he’ll be back and very tough next year.

7) Wisconsin’s first round victory over Florida State should have given a bit of respect to the naysayers of the Big Ten. A win over Xavier would have solidified the legitimacy of the conference. Now it’s up to the Boilers and Spartans to keep the conference faith alive.

Proponents of the Big East have said that this is best conference ever according to the talent in this year’s pool. Well, I gotta say that they are not too far from the truth. It’s clear these teams know how to win, and unlike the Big Ten teams who had their chances, can close when it counts.

9) JaJuan Johnson is quickly becoming a huge X factor in almost all Purdue games and his NBA stock is rising exponentially. While he has said he intends on returning next year, he also hasn’t ruled out going pro. I think it all depends on his performance against UCONN that may make the difference on that huge of a stage.

10) The Kansas-Michigan State match up is really an interesting one. Michigan State beat them pretty bad a couple of months ago, but Kansas has improved greatly–winning 16 of their last 19. Izzo definitely knows how to plan for this team, but can he beat them again? Bill Self certainly has the pedigree in the tournament now to really question that…

Big Tenet Prediction: Michigan State 73, Ohio State 65

Goran Suton

Well, my crystal ball was a bit fuzzy yesterday, what with me picking Wisconsin over Ohio State and Michigan over Illinois. However, I don’t think the crystal ball is tough to read in this ball game. For one, we’ve got Ohio State playing a superior grind-out game against Wisconsin just 24 hours ago and Michigan State having to utilize some clutch offense down the stretch against upstart Minnesota. So what does this mean for this game?

Well, if Tom Izzo has his way, I think he will push the ball early and often, utilizing an inside-outside game that will keep the Ohio State defense off balance. While he wishes he could put Travis Walton on Evan Turner, that obviously won’t happen due to the size disparity. So, that being said, it should be interesting to see the switches in both offensive schemes and tempo in this game, because I truly believe OSU Coach Thad Matta will try to keep this at a slower tempo while the Spartans will be looking more for a faster track meet to take advantage of Kalin Lucas’ and the suddenly-adept Chris Allen to take advantage of a weaker Ohio State backcourt defense.

Down low, the telling story will be how Delvon Roe and Goran Suton can handle the physical nature that the Buckeyes have started to employ–although I think Suton could potentially have a huge game if he gets it going early.

I’d love to see an upset, but Michigan State now has a #1 seeding in their sights, and to that end, won’t let this game go. My gut tells me that the Spartans lead throughout in the 6-10 point range and then keep it steady in the second half, closing it out again with tough free throw shooting in the end.

Durrell Summers

It’s kind of hard to type when you have egg all over your face. But after going out point by point and putting why I thought Northwestern would overtake Minnesota, the Gophers go out and make me look like a fool. It’s all their fault, not mine. Understood?

So, here we are in the second round of the tournament, where now it seems that Minnesota has assured itself of an NCAA berth, but that doesn’t mean Tubby Smith’s team is going to take it easy. They are now in that “playing for seeding” category, and a win over the Big Ten Champs (Michigan State, for those of you living under a rock) would be absolutely huge. The bench came through in shining fashion against Northwestern and the same effort is a MUST to beat the Spartans. Michigan State of course has the advantage of playing them fresh and is also looking to up their seeding–as MSU is one of the most successful teams next to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament, statistics and history are against the Gophers.

Big Tenet Prediction: Michigan State 67 Minnesota 60

I really can see the backcourt of Michigan State having a big day, as the quickness of Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and defensive prowess of Travis Walton will take advantage of Minnesota’s probably-tired legs. Lawrence Westbrook will have a big day overall, but not a ton from his teammates. The game will be pretty even throughout, but having the one extra day off will pay out for the Spartans in the last 6-10 minutes of the game, and solid free throw shooting down the stretch will seal it.

Tom Crean

Indiana is 6-23. Ouch. They have never had a worse season than this. Double Ouch. But is Tom Crean crying in the corner? Nope. In fact, as a coach who understood exactly what he was getting into when Kelvin Sampson tried to burn the IU program to the ground, even in a loss.

Despite losing to the Big Ten Champs–Michigan State–Crean wasn’t entirely unhappy: “I think we played our best basketball today because our mindset was so right…They’re learning, they’re getting better. They are getting more confident.”

Even though it was senior night and the Hoosiers had many chances to win, they didn’t, but the fact is–they weren’t even supposed to come close to this close of a game. And with that, folks, it shows just what kind of passion and heart the Hoosiers have despite being overmatched in every facet of the game. Yes, they are 6-23, but don’t be surprised that 2 years from now this column is prophetic and that record is reversed. Count on it.

Tom Izzo

Is this a bit premature? Naah. I mean, barring a complete let down at Indiana, the Spartans will be the outright Big Ten Basketball champions for the 2008-09 season. At a minimum, they will be co-champions if they lose at Indiana and at home against Purdue. If the game today against Illinois is any indication, the Spartans will win both of these games.

Michigan State lead throughout the entire game in one of the hardest venues to win in the Big Ten, the Assembly Hall in Champaign. Every time the Illini came close to the Spartans, they always had an answer; whether it was a silky shoot runner by Durrell Summers or Raymar Morgan, or a cutting drive by Kalin Lucas, or a thunderous layup/dunk/steal by pretty much anyone on the Spartan team, the Illini just couldn’t figure the Spartans out.

Read the rest of this entry »