Lawrence Westbrook

16-1. 5-8. Two stark comparisons of numbers. But it is exactly the reversal of fortune that has occurred with Minnesota and their basketball team this season. Coming into the Big Ten tournament, while they are 21-9 overall, the Gophers are not sure things for the NCAA Tournament by any means. And now they are facing an upstart Northwestern team that in the past week won at Purdue and fought to the bitter end at Ohio State. The Wildcats may be 17-12 and have no shot at this point for the big dance, but a top showing in the tournament could be just what they need to get over the top.

My guess? The Wildcats win this game in the final minutes of the game. Why?

1) Northwestern is deeper than the Gophers and their role players are really starting to come through. Freshman John Shurna has started to get comfortable and has really turned it on in the rebounding department. Luka Mirkovic has also been solid and contributing.Meanwhile, the Gophers have been struggling to find their identity even at the end of the season. Al Nolen has been remanded to a bench player after being one of the big studs in the Big Ten at the point. On sheer depth alone, the Wildcats are looking good in this game.

2) Kevin Coble has more star power. Yes, Lawrence Westbrook is the Gophers’ leader, but Coble has that special quality that can post 35 on you in a heartbeat. As the game comes down to the wire, Coble will come through.

3) Vindication. The Wildcats were embarrassed at Minnesota 72-45 not but a couple of weeks ago, and don’t think that this isn’t sticking in their mind.

4) Hunger. It has seemed for a long time Minnesota has been playing not to lose–not to win, which is a factor Northwestern has–they absolutely MUST make it to the finals and maybe even win the tourney to have the shot at the bigs. At 21-9, the Golden Gophers can be more complacent…even though this may be a false sense of security in the long run.

Craig Moore Northwestern Basketball

Northwestern has been a team of head-scratching proportions. They look so great one minute, and then like a team that has no clue what they are doing. So goes it in the Big Ten, it seems. Currently they stand at 5-8 in the conference and 14-10 overall. Do they have signature wins? Yup–a win at Michigan State do anything for ya? How about bad losses? Um, uh-huh. From an almost 30-point drubbing by the Wisconsin Badgers to a loss to Iowa on the road, they have some things to hang their head about as well.

Remaining Conference games: 5

At Minnesota: Loss

The Golden Gophers play lock down defense at home and the Wildcats are coming off an emotional win at home against Ohio State. Look for Tubby Smith to take advantage.

At Indiana: Win

No better antidote than to play a team that has been down and out all year. Despite the fact that it’s on the road, Northwestern should win this going away.

vs. Iowa: Win

Revenge is a dish best served cold. And it will be evident in this game as Northwestern will probably blow them out.

at Purdue: Loss

The Boilermakers are playing the best ball in the conference right now, and with all cylinders humming, will prove too much for Kevin Coble and Craig Moore to keep up with.

at Ohio State: Loss

See note about Revenge above. The Buckeyes will be playing for an NCAA seed and should have won in Evanston. They won’t let it go in Columbus.

Big Ten Tournament Outlook: Perhaps an upset victory over a team like Illinois or Penn State if they get to face them, but if it’s Purdue, Wisconsin, or Ohio State, not going to happen.

Post season Tournament Outlook: NIT. The Wildcats should do well in this tournament and get more experience for their young guns.

After the first half of the Big Ten basketball season, there have been some surprises from certain players and there have been some that have lived up to their hype. While teams like Illinois and Minnesota have proven to be solid game in game out which wasn’t exactly expected, Michigan State has stayed the course and Purdue has gotten back their swagger as of late as well.

So with a little less than a month left in the season, what will the All-Big Ten team shape up to look like?

Here’s how I see it…

G Talor Battle, Penn State Nittany Lions–18.2 ppg (leads league), 5.2 assists per game (tied for first in league)–no guard has upped his game the way Battle has this year. In fact, he’s one of the main reasons the Nittany Lions have a very legitimate shot at making the NCAAs. He is not only a shoo-in for this team, but I think he has a very good shot at getting league MVP.

G Manny Harris, Michigan Wolverines–17.5 ppg (2nd), 7.3 rpg (3rd), 4.3 apg Harris has lived up to the billing that he started the year with and has really catapulted the turnaround in Ann Arbor. He’s also vastly improved in holding on to the ball this year and is every bit of the leader that Coach John Beilein needed to turn his team around.

G Craig Moore, Northwestern Wildcats–15.3 ppg (tied for 4th),76 3 pointers (43% from the arc). Kevin Coble may get all the pub and the hype, but Moore is the catalyst that allows for the defenses to extend and give Coble the open looks he needs. Moore is a sharpshooting senior who definitely can get the job done when needed.

F Evan Taylor, Ohio State Buckeyes–17 ppg (3rd), 7.5 rpg (3rd) While Taylor is 6-7, he qualifies as a tweener guard-forward. Turner is by far the biggest surprise of the 2008-09, as the sophomore has doubled his scoring average from 2008 and has really kept the Buckeyes in the Big Ten hunt. He certainly has impressed me.

C JaJuan Johnson, Purdue Boilermakers–13.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 55% shooting from the field. While Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer have fought through injuries during the year, Johnson has quietly become the team’s leader and is a beast inside. Not only has he been a central buoy for the Boilermakers, he’s also proven that he has the defensive chops, only averaging 1.7 fouls per game, a phenomenal figure considering his position.

Press Release from the Big Ten Web Site:

Northwestern’s Kevin Coble earns his first weekly laurel after averaging 26 points per game and leading the Wildcats to a milestone win over No. 7 Michigan State on Wednesday. The junior Wildcat posted the top individual performance in a conference game this season, tying a Big Ten season high with 31 points in Northwestern’s victory over the Spartans. It was NU’s first win at Michigan State in 25 years, the team’s first victory over a top-10 opponent in 15 years and its first road win over a top-10 team in 56 years. The win also snapped the Spartans’ 28-game home winning streak and 80-game home win streak against non-ranked opponents. Coupled with the Widlcats’ Jan. 18 win over No. 18 Minnesota, it also gave Northwestern consecutive wins over ranked foes for the first time in program history. Coble followed up the performance with an impressive all-around effort at Michigan on Saturday, tallying 21 points, seven rebounds and five assists. On the week, Coble averaged 5.5 rebounds per game and 3.0 assists per game, while shooting 56 percent from the floor and 90 percent from the free throw line.

Jamelle Cornley garners his first career weekly accolade after posting his 11th career double-double while spearheading two Penn State victories over conference foes last week. In Tuesday’s contest against Michigan, the senior forward grabbed 11 rebounds and netted 17 points on 8-of-10 (.800) shooting to lead a 73-58 victory over the Wolverines. Cornley then posted 24 points and six boards while playing all 40 minutes to help Penn State rally from a 13-point deficit with eight minutes to play to a 63-59 victory over Iowa. The Columbus, Ohio, native was dominating in the paint in both games shooting a combined 19-of-27 (.700) on an array of post moves. He scored 10 straight points, including a three-pointer, in the final five minutes of the victory over Iowa to bring Penn State to within two. Cornley recorded his 75th career double-figure game, jumping into eighth all-time in career scoring at Penn State with 1,369 points.

Here comes the eternal question…if a team that is supposed to be at the bottom of your conference runs by the conference’s top team–on the road–is that due to the fact that the conference is not strong or because it really is? Because when Northwestern went into East Lansing and won for the first time since Reagan was president–in his first term, mind you–and snapped Michigan State’s 88-game winning streak against non-ranked opponents, it certainly raised some eyebrows.

But for me–it didn’t. Why?

It would be different if Michigan State had played some powderpuffs previously; it would be different if this was Northwestern’s first big win of the season….but it wasn’t. In fact, it was the second big win in a row–the first time the Wildcats have beaten ranked opponents back-to-back EVER after the Purple People Eaters had beaten Minnesota last week.

I believe this is in fact a testament to how STRONG the conference is; with Indiana being the exception, every team has a chance to win no matter where the game is being played. Yes, I mean Penn State. Yes, I mean Iowa. Sure, the Big East has a bunch of teams in the rankings, but they also have like 47 teams in the conference. Apart from the ACC, I truly believe that the Big Ten is the second strongest league this year.

With 5 teams in the top 25 for RPI–two of which aren’t even ranked overall–it again shows the top to bottom strength that this conference has immensely improved upon, and I would much rather see a team like Michigan State go down in this way then to see them get to the top and then have everyone else flopping or not as good. Am I wrong to think this way?

By the accounts of the polls, Northwestern is ranked #20 and Missouri #23. So the Wildcats should win, right? Not so fast my friend. In fact, this could end up being one of the more lopsided contests in the 2008-09 bowl season. Sorry to sound so glum off the bat, but it is what it is.

Missouri, by most accounts, was a legitimate national title contender through the first several games of the season. With Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel at the helm and arguably one of the best receivers in the country in Jeremi Maclin, the Tigers were primed to hang with the other teams in the Big 12. Problem was that while Mizzou was a very good team, many of the other teams made such huge strides in the talent department that it proved to be a lethal combination in Missouri’s season; considering that their 4 losses were against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas, 3 of those 4 losses were against teams that were ranked in the top 5 at one time and 1 that is playing in the national title game. Sure, they got bombed in the Big 12 title game, but that doesn’t underscore how good this team is.

Boy, it sure seems like I am a Big 12 fan, doesn’t it?

Well, I am not. I am a Big Ten fan. And if anyone has been following my posts this year, you know that I have great admiration and respect for the Northwestern Wildcats.  In fact, one may surmise that I am always crushing on Pat Fitzgerald’s crew.  C.J. Bacher is still a very good QB, but his stats are a fraction of what they were the year previous, and he only has 14 TDs and 14 INTs. Not exactly the ratio that a coach likes. Yes, he had some injury issues, but that is an issue in itself.  Losing Tyrell Sutton for the season was devastating to the overall offensive scheme since he kept defenses honest. Granted, the Wildcats are 9-3 and own wins against Minnesota, Iowa, and…..ummmm…..uhhh…Illinois? Michigan? Yeah…that’s about it.  Considering that NW didn’t even play Penn State or Wisconsin and lost to the other 2 top teams by a combined 82-30, the 9-3 record doesn’t look so shiny.

Missouri is currently a 12 point favorite and the money is hot and heavy after the Tigers. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ending line is well over 2 TD by gametime….and they should cover this with ease.

The Big Tenet’s prediction: Missouri 42 Northwestern 21

Well, boys, there’s no place to go but up. After going 1-17 in the conference last year, Bill Carmody didn’t look at the situation as something of dire need, but rather is building upon the experience level to give him a better team. If there’s something to be said about the Northwestern Wildcats this year, is that they will not lack for experience or depth on the team.

With Kevin Coble back in the fold, the Wildcats have a legitimate baller who can shoot very well. Coble also should help on the defensive end, where Northwestern was deplorable last year. As far as starters go, the Wildcats have three players who averaged in double figures last year, and with some assistance coming in terms of freshmen that are bigger (see seven footer Kevin Rowley), and the offensive side of things should not be an issue this year.

There are potentially two X factors which can make this team go from an improved team to one of the surprises of the country. Yes, I understand that there is a cavernous amount of space in between those two comparisons, but when you take into consideration the gamesmanship of Craig Moore and Michael Thompson, you’ve got an intriguing situation. Moore struggled immensely at the beginning of last year, yet in closing he lit up the scoreboard and led the Big Ten in three pointers made. Thompson was thrusted into a leadership role as a freshman and while he didn’t fail, he didn’t exactly tear it up either–but even with that in mind, he had a good shooting percentage from the arc–over 43 percent–and he also gave the offense a different look than what many teams had seen defensively, being able to create off the dribble, something that NU hasn’t had…well, ever.

If these two guys can continue their improvement and Moore can simply pick up from last year’s finish, this will be a solid team that should make some noise and maybe even sneak into the NIT. (Come on, they went 1-17 last year, don’t hope for miracles) But this will all hinge on their defensive abilities–if they can stop teams to the tune of 5-10 points less than last year, you will see a greatly different Northwestern team this year.

These are two teams I just don’t get. Michigan has a 3-7 record yet 2 of those wins came against ranked teams and the last win was behind Nick Sheridan, who pretty much has been left at the side of the road for most of the season. It also was on the road against a good Minnesota team.

Northwestern has looked every bit as good as the majority of teams in the conference pretty much game in and game out. They were able to survive their big name QB C.J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton in upsetting Minnesota (notice a theme here?) but then got blown out by Ohio State the next week.

And now, they get Bacher back, but yet Michigan is favored to win this match up of these two mystery teams, and people are betting heavily on the Wolverines. I don’t get it–yes, the Maize and Blue are playing at home, but we’re still talking about a team that, while improved, still is largely erratic. Northwestern hasn’t exactly been the picture of steadiness either, and their offense–which they rely upon the vast majority of time–is still suspect without Sutton. The fact is–without a miracle INT return against the Gophers, they would be on a losing streak on the cusp of this game.

So which teams show up at this game? Is it the improved Wolverines who have a new found “life” with Sheridan at the helm? Or will they fumble around like the letdown against Illinois where they got blown out at the Big House? Will Northwestern jump back on the winning bandwagon with Bacher throwing darts, or will the void of Sutton prove too much for him to handle against a good Michigan defense?

To me, looking at the money being bet on Michigan being favored by a field goal, I just have to look at some different points, and while Michigan COULD have a decent day against a Northwestern defense that is marginal at best, there’s no consistency to assume this will happen; meanwhile, Bacher is the kind of leader who can step up, and coach Pat Fitzgerald is very much some one who can get his team up for this game. I’ll go against the grain and take the Wildcats 21-17.

The Big Ten continues to surprise me. Here I am taking the most obvious train of thought in thinking that when Northwestern QB C.J. Bacher goes down with an injury that little-used backup Mike Kafka would get eaten alive by a decent Minnesota defense.

The Gophers are still shaking their heads in confusion, visions of Kafka running ahead of them.

Not only did Northwestern upset the upstart Golden Gophers, but Kafka set a Big Ten record for yards rushed by a QB. Now, that’s remarkable considering some of the big name scrambling QBs that have played in the Big Ten to think that Kafka stepped in and shattered the record. For his efforts, he was awarded the Big Ten Player of the Week, and rightfully so.

From the Big Ten press release:

The junior signal caller averaged eight yards per carry with 27 rushes for 217 yards, while also completing 12-of-16 (75.0 percent) passes to amass a career-best 360 yards of total offense. The Big Ten record for single-game rushing yards by a quarterback was held by Purdue’s Gary Danielson, who ran for 213 yards against Washington in 1972. Kafka opened the scoring with a 36-yard touchdown pass and led another drive for a field goal and a 10-0 advantage. The Gophers rallied to take a 14-10 lead before Kafka led another scoring drive. The Chicago native broke loose on a 53-yard run before tossing a two-yard touchdown to retake the lead in the second quarter.

Congrats, Mike. You earned it.