Kalin Lucas

Not long ago–about a month to be exact–I published an article with my predictions for the All-Big Ten team. Sure, it’s not like I did it before the season began, but there was still a lot of basketball to play–and I almost 100% nailed it. I picked Talor Battle, Evan Turner, JaJuan Johnson, and Manny Harris, which made the first team, but I failed to pick not only one player–but the Big Ten player of the year. That’s right…I left out Kalin Lucas from Michigan State.

My bad.

It wasn’t as if I forgot–I certainly knew of Lucas’ prowess and progress with the Spartans this year. However, I chose Craig Moore instead at the guard position–why? Well, I took into account Moore’s 3-point shooting accuracy and his “senior” status. I also took into consideration that Michigan State was awfully darn good anyways and would be a good team if Lucas was hurt. But–in the last month of the season, Lucas turned it on, Moore’s Northwestern Wildcats kind of faded, and here we are.

I guess it does make sense to have the Big Ten POY be from the championship team. That really shouldn’t have been a surprise.  However, the fact that all five players were sophomores and 9 of the 15 players from the first, second and third teams were sophs. Talk about a future that’s bright for the conference.

Ok–assuming that these young players stay in school. I can see Battle, Harris, and Lucas maybe going pro at this point, but the other young’uns would probably best be served staying at least another year in school (at least for the conference’s sake!).

Congrats, guys, and congrats, Kalin. You all deserve it!

I’m afraid–for the Big Ten.

Because what I witnessed tonight in Michigan’s 72-66 OT win against Indiana was really interesting–and a glimpse into the future. The Hoosiers, who are expected to be the doormat of the league this year, streaked out to a 20 point lead early in the second half, only to fold to Michigan’s long bombs and could not make free throws in overtime as the Wolverines did not walk–they ran out of Assembly Hall with an oh-too-close victory.

I am afraid for the Big Ten because of the fact that Tom Crean’s team is just not that good–their experience and talent level at this point shouldn’t even be comparable to many teams in the Big Ten–especially with the improvement the league as a whole has made. But with the heart that this team is already showing, in a couple years you WILL be seeing a return to prominence of this Indiana program–mark my words. By that time, the recruits will be rolling off the top of the heap, the younger players will have matured, and Crean’s system will be fully in place–this is just a foreshadowing of what is to come.

But you also can’t underscore the improvement of the Wolverines either. Manny Harris‘ leadership and DeShawn Sims ability to take over a game when he wants to–along with a slew of three point bombers–may well have this team positioned to finish high in the Big Ten and at the same time grab a good seed in the NCAAs. I realize that this is a bit premature considering the Big Ten season just started, but this team is FOR REAL.

When I started watching the game, I thought-well this one will be over by the half–and it almost was–in IU’s favor. But then the leadership and talent caught up with the inexperience, turning the game upside down. But there’s one thing for sure–this is the reason why I love Big Ten basketball.

My apologies to Ohio State, but this is one year that I am really anticipating a great game in the BCS championship. I know, I know, I have a blog about the Big Ten conference and I am writing about 2 teams that are not even included, but I have to weigh in my not-so-mighty opinion on this. What we have here is a case of not only 2 superstar QBs, but two very good coaches, minor role players that can be huge in this type of game, and all of the pressure of a national championship.

Tim Tebow feels like he was robbed. After winning back to back Heisman trophies and bringing his team back to the national championship game, he wasn’t even close to winning it this year. Not that he had a terrible year–he threw for 2500+ yards, ran for over 500 yards, and had a combined 40 TDs. Yes, that’s down from last year, but no–it’s no one can really scoff at it–unless your name is Sam Bradford. The Oklahoma QB is not a runner–but this guy must have a rubber arm, as the humble sophomore threw for just short of 4500 yards and 48 TDs.

Bradford took home the gold, but the critics are still questioning whether he’s all that and a bag of chips–and in this game, he’ll get the biggest of stages to either prove it–or flop. Experts have pointed to the fact that it’s not necessarily Bradford who is the person that should be thanked, but rather coach Bob Stoops, who ordered a change to a no-huddle offense this year after the Sooners got beat by West Virginia last year. The talent that the Sooners own was perfect for this move; in fact, a good percentage of OU’s TD strikes came because of the fact that they run so many plays so fast with great execution that defenses were either huffing and puffing, not in position, or making late substitutions and caught off guard–while this is the nature of the offense itself, it cannot be underscored as to the brilliance in which it took teams that were apparently “good” defensively and turned them into bumbling idiots.

Florida relies upon a very young and deep defense and substitutes a lot–so the no-huddle offense could be a nightmare for them. But you also cannot discount the preparation that Urban Meyer does–he was undefeated in bowls until last year’s upset at the hands of Michigan that sent Lloyd Carr out (see, I DID pull the Big Ten into the discussion). Give Meyer a month at looking at the OU offense and you can be sure that he will have his team ready.

What about on the other side of the ball? Tebow gives defensive coordinators fits because he has strengths in so many areas, but this year has seemed to be m0re of a pass-first type of year for Tebow, but it really cannot be ignored that he is one of the most mobile QBs in the country, and the OU defense hasn’t exactly been awesome against such type of QBs. Yes, they limited Chase Daniel in the Big 12 Championship game, but Zac Robinson from in-state rival Okla St. had 90 yards on the ground and 250+ in the air, posting 41 points on the Sooners. (Sure, the Sooners had 61 that game, but I am making a point here In the only loss of the season, Colt McCoy had a good day, although he wasn’t used specifically on the ground that much–and they put up 45 points on OU. No offense to Robinson and McCoy, but Tebow is a much better QB overall–especially with the slew of weapons he possesses.

So, the X factor will basically be whether the no-huddle will keep Florida off balance and if Tebow can exploit the Sooners defense with his double threat ability. While I like Bradford, coming into this battle with these kind of stakes as a sophomore is a bit daunting–and Tebow has already won a national title. Something tells me that Florida’s defense and their very good secondary will make adjustments that they need to and get some key turnovers, while Tebow will slowly dissect the Sooner defense. It will be a great game, but Meyer comes out on top again.

The Big Tenet’s prediction: Florida Gators 41, Oklahoma Sooners 31

You would think that Kirk Ferentz would be happy.  An Iowa program that was in disarray with legal issues, off the field problems, and an overall win-loss situation that was not exactly “great”, the Hawkeyes were able to rise above this and make the postseason to face the South Carolina Gamecocks. But he’s not just complacent about making a bowl–Ferentz wants to win. But he’s not underestimating the importance of “getting back”. “I think they appreciate their opportunities a little more. Certainly for us to be back and playing in a great bowl, that’s going to make it that much better for us, so we’re thrilled.”

But now the young Hawkeyes must face a feisty and always scary South Carolina team, who is lead by Steve Spurrier. Love him or hate him, you have to respect his game. So, what’s the story morning glory? Well, even though SC is in the tough SEC, the Gamecocks record of 7-5 isn’t all that impressive. The seven wins they got were against less competition, and the last two they lost to Florida and Clemson were blowouts.

The Gamecocks are pretty good on defense–ranked 11th in the FBS, and their offense is pretty typical of Spurrier teams–more pass, less run. Iowa is also a solid defensive team, but their offense is more rush oriented, riding freshman Shonn Greene to many big wins this year. However, with the ‘Cocks ability to really step up defensively against the pass-ranked 3rd in the country–it could spell a lot of issues with freshman Ricky Stanzi, who only took over the offense mid season. Can he stand up to such pressure in the postseason?

Iowa is a four point favorite, but with the Iowa defense facing an offensive legend like Spurrier and with the defense for SC being incredibly talented, I think it will be close, but unfortunately no cigar for Iowa.

The Big Tenet’s prediction: South Carolina 21  Iowa 15

Now that I have had some time to digest even more of the holiday food that I threw down my gullet, I can concentrate yet again on Big Ten basketball for the second half of the grades for these prestigious (cough) universities…

Minnesota Golden Gophers: A-

Big Tenet, how in the world can you give an undefeated team an A-? Are you just soulless? Well, yes, but that has nothing to do with this.  Minnesota is certainly a good team, but are they worthy of their ranking right now? Maybe so–or maybe not. Their biggest win came against Louisville in a game where the Cardinals were extremely road-weary, and the only other victory worth noting was Virginia. Even against much less opponents, Minnesota didn’t exactly dispatch of them easily (Georgia St by 8, Colorado St by 1, SE Louisiana by 9). With opening games against Michigan State and Ohio State, we will soon see just how good this Gopher team is.

Northwestern Wildcats: C+

Man, I am tough today! The Wildcats are 8-2, but come on, I mean–who have they really beaten of significance? Florida State? Maybe. But losses against teams like Butler and Stanford as the only teams that really had anything to show should really put out there that the Northwestern ballers aren’t exactly grade A material. Kevin Coble has been solid and as a team the Wildcats have a good shooting percentage, but that is much in due part to being able to get easy shots on their slow-down offense. At the free throw line, they are struggling, and if they do not improve, the Big Ten season will be long for them.

Ohio State Buckeyes: A-

This would have been a definite A or even A+ if it weren’t for the drubbing that the Buckeyes took for their first loss of the season against West Virginia, which was more of an embarrassment than anything. Still, at 9-1 and ranked, Thad Matta has to be pretty happy with the results of his young team. Evan Turner has turned into All-Big Ten potential, B.J Mullens is showing his prowess slowly but surely, and Jon Diebler has been solid overall. However, with David Lighty out 4-10 weeks and prized recruit Anthony Crater announcing he’s leaving the Buckeyes, it could very well be a long Big Ten season for them as well.

Penn State Nittany Lions: B+

11-2 is nothing to scoff at, and the frustratingly inconsistent Nittany Lion basketball program is basking in the success thus far. While the team has only played 2 games on the road–winning both–while losing home games to Temple and Rhode Island, this isn’t a dominant team, but it’s not a terrible one either. I feel much better about them being 11-2 than I do the Buckeyes at 9-1. Talor Battle is continuing to light it up from the outside and Jamelle Cornley is showing the leadership that PSU has been seeking. Don’t be surprised to see this team possibly in the Big Ten’s upper crust by season’s end.

Purdue Boilermakers: B+

They are ranked #9 and you are giving them a B+? Yep. While the Purdue faithful continue to be excited about the long-term prospects of this team, I am giving this rating based on the fact that they have set the bar so high that it’s not quite where it needs to be–yet.  Losses to Oklahoma and Duke were devastating, but a huge win against Davidson showed the nation again that this team is indeed for real. If there’s a team that will benefit down the stretch for the level of preseason competition–it will be Purdue.

Wisconsin Badgers: C

At 9-3, it’s not a terrible year thus far, but the Badgers have been less than impressive overall. They’ve lost every game thus far against ranked opponents, including a home loss to Texas when they could have won the game but didn’t execute down the stretch. Sure, the statistics thus far mirror last year’s stunning 31-5 team, but there are certainly chinks in the armor that Bo Ryan must fix with a much-improved conference this year. The Badgers open against Michigan in Ann Arbor, a key indicator as to where this team “truly” is, and guess what–Michigan is ranked. Yipes. Either way, this team definitely has potential, and now is the time to kick it in gear.

Now that many teams are ready to rock into the Big Ten conference season, the Big Tenet has some grades to give out for each program. And awayyyyyyyy we go!!!

Illinois Fighting Illini: A

The Illini won their 12th game of the year in 2007-08 in March.  This year, they posted a dozen wins on Dec 28th. Nice turnaround. Considering the team was coming off a 16-19 year, lost Jamar Smith (again), many fans–including myself–left them for dead. At 12-1, they are certainly one of the most surprising teams in the Big Ten, let alone the country. If they get off a shot in the last 10 seconds against Clemson, this team could very well be 13-0. Still, Bruce Weber has to be ecstatic, and much hyped transfer Alex Legion hasn’t really even done much yet. When he does, look out.

Indiana Hoosiers: D+

While no one expected the Hoosiers to be doing much at all at this point, the fact that they have lost the last two games at home to powerhouses Northeastern and Lipscomb show how far the Hoosier team has fallen. They are young, inexperienced, and seem to have the will but Tom Crean just can’t get them going. Their penchant for turning the ball over has to have him in a state of frustration; while it was expected that Indiana would struggle immensely in the conference, I think many thought they would at least be over .500 at the break. Not so.

Iowa Hawkeyes: B-

The Big Tenet was a bit “giving” on this grade, as when you look at Iowa’s schedule, they have no big wins on the resume and have lost to pretty much every team that was supposed to be better than them. The Hawks have certainly showed their ability to score from the arc (9 per game and 40% from the three point line), but inside they have been getting beat in a lot of statistics, and it’s no surprise–Iowa has no player over 6-8, but the scary thing is that they were getting outrebounded by smaller teams. In the rough and tumble Big Ten, Todd Lickliter has got to get these guys crashing with reckless abandon, because eventually those threes will run out.

Michigan Wolverines: A-

John Beilein certainly didn’t think that the Michigan program would be as far along as it is now, but after wins against UCLA and Duke in the preseason, the Wolverines are certainly on the map. With Manny Harris showing his ability to be amongst the league’s and nation’s elite, and DeShawn Sims stepping up in big ways, the Wolverines at 9-2 are playing great basketball. Problem is–they’ve only played 3 games away from home. Plus, they haven’t really played any lock down teams defensively other than UCLA, and they start the season against defensive heavies Wisconsin and Illinois, which will really show the world how far along they have come. But don’t fret quite yet-this team could end up as the surprise team when all is said and done.

Michigan State Spartans: B

Tom Izzo’s crew is 9-2, and that’s not a huge surprise or letdown. The team owns victories over Oklahoma State, Texas (on the road) and losses against North Carolina and Maryland. The biggest X factor has been the return of Goran Suton, who provided the biggest boost in the win over Texas, and his presence inside will give much relief to the Spartan outside shooters. As MSU heads into Big Ten play at Minnesota, this will really set the tone for the year–a win would be huge, a close loss still would leave the Spartans intact, but a blowout loss could be devastating. Delvin Roe has been a pleasant surprise, and Chris Allen has been an inconsistent frustration. The Spartans sit at the #11 ranking in the country, but I don’t know if I am exactly sold on that at this point of the season.

Iowa fans may be hoping that coach Todd Lickliter has the tools he needs for his type of game play after finishing 13-19 last year, but they may be a little ahead of themselves. Lickliter prefers the slow down game, and while he is a good coach, his team this year may not be exactly up to snuff as far as wins and losses.

But then again, this is kind of mystery team, so a lot could happen either way. Tony Freeman’s transfer was a killer to the Hawkeyes, as he put up almost 14 points a game. Still, Cyrus Tate came on strong at the end of last year and could very well make up for some of those points lost, and long bomber Jake Kelly will be looked to lead the team–and with the three point line being moved back, he may be one of the premier shooters in the league.

The Hawkeyes are still very young, and 7 new players will don the black and gold this year. Devan Bawinkel, a transfer from West Virginia/JUCO, should provide immediate help to these young players and also should make an immediate impact offensively.

The overall look at the Hawkeyes is that the team has little depth overall, but decent experience in the starting five. Tate, Bawinkel, and Kelly will form a decent scoring duo, and Lickliter’s approach to discipline should bring the younger players up to speed quicker than most, but to ask for an NCAA berth at this point may be pushing it. An NIT bit and an over .500 record is definitely something that is within reach. Just a wait a couple of years, Hawk fans. They’ll get there.

Well, if the Big Ten is weak, apparently the bowl gods aren’t showing that so far with the predictions of bowl season coming up soon–in fact, two experts have listed that they prognosticate 8 teams in bowls–two in the BCS alone with Penn State in the national title game versus Texas, along with a USC-Ohio State rematch in the Rose Bowl (great, the Trojans get another home game for another bowl).

I understand that one of the biggest issues and complaints against the conference is that they put a bunch of teams in and no one seems to ever win. Well, if there’s any time to prove the naysayers wrong, it’s now.

Here’s the link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowlprojection?season=2008&week=9

Now, I’ll get flak for this, I am sure. Wisconsin started off 0-4 in the Big Ten. Ohio State hasn’t beaten a real good team and started off ranked #1 for the year. But if there’s a team that really has been a disappointment this year, it’s the Illinois Fighting Illini. Coming off of a 9 win season and a BCS berth last year, the Illini had tremendous weapons on offense and a decent defense returning. They had every opportunity to take things to the next level, give coach Ron Zook a label as a great coach, and make some stars in the process.

They didn’t.

Sure, they’ve lost to some good teams–Missouri in St. Louis, Penn State in Happy Valley, and Wisconsin in Madison. But they also lost a game they should have won at home against Minnesota, barely eeked out a victory against Louisiana-Lafayette, and their other three wins have come against 1-A Eastern Illinois and Big Ten doormats Michigan and Indiana. Not a great resume. They have to scrape two wins out of four left, and it has to come more than likely in the next two weeks against Iowa and Western Michigan, as the last two are against Ohio State and at Northwestern.

Even with a split, the team ends up 6-6, and they are bowl eligible, but it’s not anything to write home about; sure, Illini fans are very happy considering how awful the team has been in the 21st century, but it still is way below where this team should be playing.

Again, I know I’ll take some flak, but oh well. I call ‘em like I see ‘em.

Most of the time you can pretty much count on at least one team from the Big Ten making the BCS bowl games, and having 2 has not been entirely unusual–but this year, I don’t think that most people would have ever copped to thinking that the possibility of having 2 teams in it would even be a remote thing.

But–not so fast, my friends!

With Penn State already as high as they are at #3, if they were to lose to Ohio State and that alone, it could still keep the Nittany Lions in the BCS bowl scheme and allow the Buckeyes–who would need to win every game the rest of the season–to also get a BCS bowl. It’s a possibility, that’s for sure, and one scenario I really didn’t think had a snowball’s chance in hell. But I have to say that with both of these teams playing the way they have, the grumbles about the Big Ten being down overall would be quieted at least a little. But in order to really keep the boobirds from flocking, if this would happen, both PSU and OSU would HAVE to win both of their games, else the conference will have to endure yet another offseason of finger pointing and insults.

With the way college football has gone where it seems the number 1 carousel has been going around faster than any season of recent memory, this is now a very real possibility. If Penn State beats Ohio State, it will be the only one in the BCS, and that may be the big one–a national title game. Either way, I’ll take it as a Big Ten fan.