Travis Walton

Michigan State and Purdue had some big time struggles in their second round games, with each coming down to the waning minutes before both teams snatched victory. From a seeding standpoint, Purdue was the only mild upset, with a 5 over a 4 seed in Washington. But in everyone else’s case for the Big Ten seeds, they lost and are not in the Sweet 16.  So was it really all that a surprise that only 2 of 7 got further?

Ten NCAA Observations about the Big Ten

1) Illinois could have been the biggest disappointment of the bunch. The Illini really never had a chance in their game against Western Kentucky and only a flourish at the end made it respectable. Bruce Weber better get the offense more consistent next year if the Illini want to improve.

2) Travis Walton showed fans across the country just how deep the Michigan State Spartans are with his offensive performance against USC. If things like this keep happening, the grins will be permanent in East Lansing.

3) Michigan definitely has reason to believe that they are certainly a team of the future. They beat a good Clemson team and gave Oklahoma all they could handle before folding.

4) Purdue hasn’t been winning pretty, but that doesn’t matter at this point of the game. Their depth is also something to take note of and they will need every bit of it against the white-hot UCONN Huskies.

5) Minnesota certainly impressed me in their game against Texas. I personally thought that the game was almost unwinnable as soon as I heard it announced, and the Gophers really played the Longhorns with every bit of heart they had. Tubby Smith ought to be very proud of his team and excited about their future.

6) Ohio State’s loss to Siena was kind of surprising–kind of. Siena was actually one of those teams that everyone thought could make a run–and even though the Buckeyes were playing decently close to home,  I still thought that Evan Turner would win this game for OSU. But don’t fret–I got a feeling he’ll be back and very tough next year.

7) Wisconsin’s first round victory over Florida State should have given a bit of respect to the naysayers of the Big Ten. A win over Xavier would have solidified the legitimacy of the conference. Now it’s up to the Boilers and Spartans to keep the conference faith alive.

Proponents of the Big East have said that this is best conference ever according to the talent in this year’s pool. Well, I gotta say that they are not too far from the truth. It’s clear these teams know how to win, and unlike the Big Ten teams who had their chances, can close when it counts.

9) JaJuan Johnson is quickly becoming a huge X factor in almost all Purdue games and his NBA stock is rising exponentially. While he has said he intends on returning next year, he also hasn’t ruled out going pro. I think it all depends on his performance against UCONN that may make the difference on that huge of a stage.

10) The Kansas-Michigan State match up is really an interesting one. Michigan State beat them pretty bad a couple of months ago, but Kansas has improved greatly–winning 16 of their last 19. Izzo definitely knows how to plan for this team, but can he beat them again? Bill Self certainly has the pedigree in the tournament now to really question that…

Ohhh, the horror. Wisconsin a 12 seed? Wow. But as anyone can attest, if there’s any place to be in the NCAA tournament as an underdog,

Bo Ryan and Trevon Hughes

it’s the 12 seed–as the history tells us that the 12 seed is actually very successful in terms of upsets. And the Badgers are playing good ball, despite getting beat in their opening round game of the Big 10 tournament.

The first round match up is against Florida State, a basketball team that was able to make it to the ACC Final after upsetting North Carolina who was sans Ty Lawson. They lost to Duke, but in the process, the 25-9 Seminoles were able to garner the 5 seed–but while this is a good seed, some think it should have been higher. Still, this is no cakewalk for the Seminoles, as the tournament-tested Badgers will bring their best Bo Ryan game to Boise in what should be an awesome game overall.

The Seminoles are talented and tall, but not rugged at all. They have streaky shooters and are not all that great defensively, but Wisconsin is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The key to this game will be if Florida State can hold on to the basketball, as their guards have had a tendency to be sloppy at times. And with Wisconsin continuing to be a solid defensive team, they may be the Achilles heel for the upstart Seminoles.

If the Badgers can make it past the Seminoles, they’ll likely face Xavier in the second round, the 4 seed. The X-men won the regular season title in the Atlantic 10, but the conference overall was not as strong as it normally has been in the past, and overall the only big wins the Musketeers got was over Memphis and LSU. Other than that, Xavier really doesn’t have much to impress me. Still, this is a very athletic who can score in chunks and provide match up issues with the Badgers if they can control the tempo.

Predicted Outlook: The Badgers can certainly beat the Seminoles if they are on their game and Xavier as well. Asking more than that is probably too muchm but if they make it to the Sweet Sixteen, that will be a huge coup for Big Ten fans.

Saying that this is a tale of two very different teams is an understatement. Ohio State started off red hot and had some

Marcus Landry

huge victories; meanwhile, Wisconsin stumbled out of the gate in the Big Ten conference and has been playing catch up ever since. Ohio State, on the other hand, has cooled off and has for the most part been underachieving. So, it’s only fitting that these two teams square off in the first round, because both have a lot to gain and a lot to lose in this contest. In order for the Buckeyes to go deep, the inside presence of Dallas Lauderdale and B.J. Mullens is an absolute must to give Evan Turner and William Buford open looks. This could be Mullens’ coming out party if the Buckeyes make a run. Wisconsin, on the other hand, continues to execute their game plans painfully–but with a winning edge. Arguably the hottest team in the Big Ten after finishing the season 7-2 with their only losses on the road at Michigan State and Minnesota, the Badgers have everyone scared of them again. Marcus Landry will need to work hard to get the Buckeyes in foul trouble for Wisconsin to lull the Buckeyes to sleep. In the season’s only match up, Wisconsin eeked by OSU at home.

Big Tenet Prediction: Wisconsin 61 Ohio State 55

Bo Ryan is one of those methodical coaches in the country, and he will pick apart the Badgers by pressuring the ball and harrassing Turner, who is basically the emotional and offensive catalyst the Buckeyes must have to win. Solid defense down the stretch and a grind it out offense gives Wisconsin a tough win at Conseco.

It’s hard to type when you are continually scratching your head. But, forge on I must.

Trevon Hughes

The Badgers are quite the enigma of a team…you’ve got All-Big Ten talent, tradition, experience, and great coaching…and a 17-10 record? How is that even possible? Badger fans, who are used to great teams from Bo Ryan, have to be feeling a bit ill as the season is winding down, because despite a late season run to get them back to prominence, it still doesn’t guarantee a NCAA bid. At 8-7 in the conference, the next few games are absolutely monumental for the Badgers’ postseason hopes.

Remaining Conference games: 3

vs. Michigan    Win

When the Badgers met the Wolverines on New Year’s Eve, they were two teams heading in different directions at that time, as Michigan was on the rise and the Badgers struggled– but Wisconsin won that game by 12. And now, the teams have reversed course, with Wisconsin playing great ball and the Wolverines starting to fade, which should mean that the Badgers roll.

at Minnesota   Loss

Minnesota matches up well against Wisconsin, and the Badgers blew a lead last time against the Gophers in Madison. With Minnesota bucking for a better seed in the NCAAs and place in the Big Ten tournament, playing at Williams will be just what they need to knock off the hot Badgers. It will be nip and tuck the whole way, but I foresee Blake Hoffarber and Lawrence Westbrook having big games against the softer defense of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon.

vs. Indiana Win

Do I even need to discuss this? I thought not.

Big Ten Tournament: Wisconsin could surprise a lot of teams, and I believe that a first round victory is definitely in the cards as the Badgers would get magic win number 20, and if they get Illinois or Purdue in the second round, I can see where they could pull the upset there as well. Is a title in the cards? Probably not.

Postseason Tournament: NCAA with a 9 seed. This is all contingent upon the Big Ten tournament showing and also the outcome of Ohio State’s season, as Wisconsin or Ohio State will be the last Big Ten team in the tourney, in my opinion. While they won’t get a big seed, Wisconsin could be one of the most dangerous 9 seeds in the entire tournament, and the second round match up against a team like Pitt, UCONN, Duke, or Oklahoma could be very fun to watch.

This is not a surprising award or flaming of the Wisconsin Badgers program. But you have to admit, going into the season, no one would have thought that by the end of January that the Badgers wouldn’t have a prayer to defend their Big Ten title. Yeah, yeah…I know…it’s still relatively early in the season, the Badgers could always go on a run, blah blah blah…But this isn’t your typical Bo Ryan team–nor is it a typical Big Ten basketball season.

Bottom line: Wisconsin is in major trouble.

When you look at their season, the Badgers didn’t have a terrible nonconference schedule in terms of being soft–playing UCONN, Marquette, and Texas. Problem is–they didn’t win against them. To date, the biggest win quality wise this year has been against Michigan on the road. Yeah, it’s been that kind of year.

So what gives? Well, the Badgers have been. Giving, that is–their assist to turnover ratio, usually a beacon of strength for Bo Ryan teams has dissipated; in fact, Trevon Hughes’ stats have gone way south in the turnover department. But even with that statistical downturn, all is not lost for Wisconsin–in the games that they have lost, except for those at UCONN and Purdue, Wisconsin has been in every game down to the last minutes–they just don’t seem to have the killer clutch player to bring them over the top that they have had over the years. If they do in fact want to prove me wrong and go on that run that may save their season, it has to be Hughes, Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, or Jason Bohannon that keeps the ball in his hand and then can score when it counts if they want to go on to the NCAAs–or even the NIT at this point.

Riding the return of injured players Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer, the Purdue Boilermakers got their first Big Ten win of the year by defeating a good Wisconsin team that lost their first Big Ten game of the year in West Lafayette 65-52. JaJuan Johnson scored 2o points and grabbed 10 rebounds and Hummel had a great game back with 16 and Kramer, the team’s emotional and defensive leader, played 21 minutes in coming back from a leg injury. What was even more amazing was that even though Wisconsin is a great defensive team, the Boilermakers only committed 4 turnovers.

Joe Krabbenhoft scored 13 for the Badgers and was the only player in double figures. Wisconsin handled the ball almost as well, making only 8 turnovers for the entire game. However, Wisconsin did not shoot the ball well, as Trevon Hughes went only 3-11 and Marcus Landry was 3-15 from the field. Ouch.

The 14th ranked Boilers will surely fall from this ranking, but they probably won’t exit the polls altogether after this win. Purdue next plays at Northwestern on January 15 in what should be a pretty good game. Wisconsin fell to 3-1 in the conference and 12-4 overall and face 22nd-ranked Minnesota at home in what is sure to be one the best match ups in the conference this week.

Well, in the College Football scene, there doesn’t seem to be as much emphasis on having neutral sites as it does on the basketball scene, as when I am looking at the entire scheme of things, there are a bunch of games with teams playing in their own backyard (for example, the worst is the Notre Dame-Hawaii match up being played in Honululu. What’s wrong, Rainbows? Couldn’t get Maine to make the trip?) And the Wisconsin-Florida State is another example of this situation.

In this, the Badgers and Seminoles will be facing each other in the Champs Sports bowl, being played in Orlando. While it’s become common for Wisconsin to head to the Sunshine State for their bowls, facing a team like Florida State, which probably could have been in the Gator Bowl if they hadn’t gotten shellacked by Florida in the final game of the season, does not bode well for Bret Bielema’s team.

Why? Well, for one, the Badgers are a team still of mystery. They came in as one of the front-runners in the Big Ten race and on the national scene, and then promptly started the conference season 0-4, which is basically unheard in Madison in the 21st century.Then they finished strong in the conference, but their wins were not against exactly “great” competition, with only one against a bowl team, that being Minnesota. And while they finished with 3 wins in a row, their last was an OT nailbiter (at home) against football powerhouse Cal-Poly. (Who?)

The Badgers have only won 2 games on the road this season–at Fresno State and Indiana. Yes, Fresno is tough at home and give them credit, but that was a different time and a different place for this Badger team that has undergone a ton of transformation since then: for one, Mr. Everything Travis Beckum is out for the year. Second, their has been a QB switch since then, as Dustin Sherer replaced journeyman Allan Evridge against Illinois and has never looked back.

On paper, these two teams look pretty even, including offensive passing, rushing, points scored, and points allowed. But there’s that little intangible called competition that could be once again a huge Achilles’ heel for the Badgers.  Florida State has played 9 games against bowl teams, Wisconsin 6. Of the 8 bowl teams that FSU has played, they are 5-4. Wisconsin is 2-4. Not to mention that the ACC is overall a better conference than the Big Ten, and there is just too much to overcome from the UW standpoint.

As much as I’d like to see Wisconsin march into the Magic Kingdom and beat up on the Seminoles, I just see this being way too much in favor of Bobby Bowden’s speedy team.

The Big Tenet Prediction: Florida State 31, Wisconsin 17

By most accounts, Wisconsin’s program is not all that great. I mean, they really have never made too much noise in the NCAAs, don’t churn out pro prospects every year, very rarely pull in a big fish for recruiting, and hardly ever score more than 75-80 points a game. In fact, over 70 is a huge game for the Badgers. By these standards, one would think that the Badgers would be near the bottom of the Big Ten basement. But for those in the know, Bo Ryan’s teams strike fear in the hearts of pretty much any team they face, even outside of the conference. When you play Wisconsin, you know you are going to play a team that plays as a team, executes as a team, will lock you down defensively, and give you every bit of heart game in and game out.

And despite losing some huge numbers and names from the roster from this year, the Badgers are back and should challenge Michigan State and Purdue for the conference title. The team leadership position is kind of an anomaly in terms of labels, because there are so many roles and so many people that can play them at times. Trevon Hughes, who really will make the team tick offensively as being a good shooter and point guard, should provide plenty of leadership throughout the season, but his streakiness and penchant for turnovers could also undo the team in critical times. Joe Krabbenhoft, who is the definition of a blue-collar player for the team, can do many things on the court, but lacks the star power and sheer talent to compete against some of the other big names in the conference. And then there’s Marcus Landry, who brings back double digit scoring and can bang inside and shoot it softly from the outside, but lacks size for what the Badgers are going to need defensively and without 7 footers Brian Butch and Greg Stiemsma there any more, he won’t get many open looks anywhere. Still, even with these options available plus Jason Bohannon having potential to lead the Big Ten in three point scoring, the Badgers have a slew of options available for different times and scenarios—which is exactly how Ryan likes it—no need for superstars, just good, solid players who can follow his program.

The biggest X factor as to whether the Badgers can take the title and move deep into the NCAAs isn’t any of these guys though; to me, it lies in the hands of freshman Jared Berggren, who should be a starter by the Big Ten start of the season, and at 6-10 and 235, he needs to put on a bit of bulk, but his athleticism should really make a difference to the Badgers’ success overall. And when he needs rest or is in foul trouble, the Badgers may be able to turn to Ian Markolf, a seven foot wunderkind who can really be a force defensively. Can you say Butch-Stiemsma Part 2?

Overall, this team is good—and should continue to get better. While the national rankings don’t really respect the Badger program (at the time of this writing they are ranked 25^th), don’t be surprised if once again the team gradually dispatches teams like ninjas—quiety, painlessly, and effectively. While they may not have the names that the Spartans and Boilermakers have to grace the covers of ESPN, they have the coach, system, and overall depth and talent to go wherever they want, and that’s not something many teams even nation-wise can say.