As the title of this article suggests, there isn’t one part of me that believes the Giants are going to win this Sunday. You may have seen my previous article on the Super Bowl, where I predicted the Giants to win 52-7, and for Eli Manning to throw five touchdown passes. I think Eli Manning will have a good game, but I don’t think the Giants will be able to pull this one out. However, I do think this will be a close football game.  The Giants have played great football in their past four games, and frankly, I don’t believe there are many teams in the NFL that would stand a better chance to beat the Patriots this weekend than they do. Nevertheless, the Giants will need a lot of things to go their way for them to win.

Though a game is rarely decided in the first quarter, it is of unquestionable importance for New York to get off to a fast start this Sunday. If the Giants get behind by two touchdowns early in this game, it will be a blowout. The Giants must control the clock by running the football with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. If the Giants are able to run the ball, this game will be lower scoring than the regular season finale in week 17.  If the Giants are unable to run the ball, it will force them into third and long  situations,   giving them more opportunities to commit turnovers. New York must play turnover-free football the entire game to have a chance, as the Patriots rarely miss chances to score, especially with a short field. Also keep in mind that New York’s defense is effective, due largely in part, to their ability to create pressure with four defensive lineman, which allows them to keep seven defenders in the secondary. They are not a blitzing football team, and when they are forced to do so, they give up a lot more points. We saw a glimpse of that in week 17 when the Patriots scorched the Giants deep on several occassions. Therefore, a big key for the Giants is their ability to get pressure on Brady with their core defensive lineman.

The Patriots, on the other hand, just need to keep doing what they have been doing all season long. If the deep routes to Moss or Stallworth are not there, then Brady will focus on his slot and check-down receivers. New York will try to keep as many defenders in the secondary as possible, but if the Giants are forced to blitz, the New England receivers will have some big-play opportunities. With the weather in Phoenix expected to be pleasant on Sunday, I expect Brady, and his wide array of receivers, to have a huge game. Though I am pulling for the Giants, I expect Tom Brady to be the MVP and for the Patriots to win the football game. However, I do not expect the Patriots to cover the 12 point spread. Ultimately, I think Plaxico Burress was right when he said his team would score 23 points, but I think the Patriots will double his prediction of 17 points.

Prediction:  New England Patriots  34        New York Giants  23