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Week 9 fantasy preview

I might have running backs on the brain: Seven of my nine choices below are RBs. Good luck

SMART STARTS
Matt Forte, RB, Bears:
I don’t know if Forte turned a corner last week — though he scored two touchdowns, his average per carry was somewhat weak — but he has a good matchup at home against the Cardinals. He should at least sustain last week’s performance.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Grant gets a good matchup against the Buccaneers, and after Aaron Rodgers got a little beat up against the Vikings last week, the Packers might be inclined to run the ball more. Expect Grant to top 100 yards and score a touchdown.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Backfield-mate Ahmad Bradshaw isn’t 100 percent, quarterback Eli Manning seems rattled, and the Giants host the Chargers, who let Justin Fargas have a decent game last week. If the Giants rely on Jacobs a lot, he might turn in his best game of the season.

SLEEPER ALERT
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans:
Walter has fallen off the radar in recent weeks, but with tight Owen Daniels out for the season, he might find himself back in Matt Schaub’s mix.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks:
Yep, I can’t believe I calling Jones a sleeper, but Seattle is at home against the Lions and their terrible run defense. He could turn in a big week.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: OK, this is the week you start Smith … maybe? Brett Favre is the only good fantasy QB on bye, so Smith will start in most leagues only if an owner is stuck with another second-tier quarterback as his starter. That said, Smith was solid last week against a good Colts defense, and he draws the porous pass defense of Tennessee this week.

BENCHWARMERS
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
: I have a hunch Washington will be passing most of the game just to keep up with Atlanta. Add the fact the Redskins generally stink — thus, I think Portis isn’t a good play.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: The rookie will face his biggest test against the Pittsburgh defense on Monday night. This is another game in which the underdog (Denver, in my book) will be passing to keep up, and don’t be surprised if Correll Buckhalter splits carries a little more than usual this week.

Ryan Moats, RB, Texans: Moats was a popular free-agent pickup this week after his impressive game against the Bills in relief of the bumbling Steve Slaton. Even if Slaton doesn’t return to full-time duty, surely he’ll split carries with Moats, who simply isn’t a week-to-week fantasy starter (and definitely isn’t one in Houston). Moats is maybe a low-end RB3 against the Colts, but there are other low-end RB3s more worthy of taking a chance on.

Posted on 7th November 2009 by Joey G
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Week 9 picks

I’m hoping to rebound after a mildly rough 8-5 week. Should have never picked the Packers and Lions …

WEEK 9
ATLANTA over Washington
CHICAGO over Arizona
Baltimore over Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston
NEW ENGLAND over Miami
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City
SEATTLE over Detroit
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina
N.Y. GIANTS over San Diego
SAN FRANCISCO over Tennessee
Dallas over PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh over DENVER
Last week: 8-5 Season: 86-30

Posted on 6th November 2009 by Joey G
Under: Expert (muffled laughter) picks | No Comments »

Week 8 redux

Houston coach Gary Kubiak finally had enough of Steve Slaton’s fumbling and benched him in favor of Ryan Moats in the Texans’ victory over the Bills. Was this a one-week experiment, or will Slaton be relegated to platooning the rest of the season?

Fantasy owners might hope Slaton returns, but the Texans need to get serious quickly. They aren’t going to catch the Colts in the AFC South, and 10-6 in the AFC might not be good enough for a wild card (remember, 11-5 didn’t get the Patriots into the playoffs last year). Houston has little margin for error, and Slaton simply is committing too many errors.

The Texans’ bigger problem emerging from Sunday’s victory: Tight end Owen Daniels is out for the season with a torn ACL. If their offense doesn’t adapt, forget about the playoffs.

– Minnesota’s Brett Favre was tremendous in beating the Packers at Lambeau Field. But before heaping too much praise upon Favre, it must be asked, where was the Green Bay defense all game? Aaron Rodgers did what he could to keep the Packers close, only to see the defense let Favre march down for another touchdown.

– The Giants are regressing fast, and even though third place in the NFC East still could get them into the playoffs, they need something to change quickly. Eli Manning was playing so well to start the season but now doesn’t look like he deserves his big contract. And it won’t help that the Chargers are up next.

– Finally, Tom Cable needs to go. Now.

Posted on 5th November 2009 by Joey G
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Post-Week 8 rankings

Not much movement in the rankings this week, with the Panthers making the biggest jump (three spots), and the Broncos and Packers each falling three.

1. Colts (7-0)
2. Saints (7-0)
3. Patriots (5-2)
4. Steelers (5-2)
5. Vikings (7-1)
6. Cowboys (5-2)
7. Broncos (6-1)
8. Eagles (5-2)
9. Bengals (5-2)
10. Giants (5-3)
11. Ravens (4-3)
12. Cardinals (4-3)
13. Texans (5-3)
14. Falcons (4-3)
15. Chargers (4-3)
16. Dolphins (4-4)
17. Packers (4-3)
18. Bears (4-3)
19. Jets (4-4)
20. 49ers (3-4)
21. Panthers (3-4)
22. Jaguars (3-4)
23. Bills (3-5)
24. Seahawks (3-4)
25. Raiders (2-6)
26. Redskins (2-5)
27. Titans (1-6)
28. Chiefs (1-6)
29. Lions (1-6)
30. Browns (1-6)
31. Rams (1-7)
32. Buccaneers (0-7)

Posted on 3rd November 2009 by Joey G
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Week 8

Already November — wow.

WEEK 8
Houston over BUFFALO
CHICAGO over Cleveland
DALLAS over Seattle
DETROIT over St. Louis
GREEN BAY over Minnesota
N.Y. JETS over Miami
BALTIMORE over Denver
SAN DIEGO over Oakland
Jacksonville over TENNESSEE
PHILADELPHIA over N.Y. Giants
ARIZONA over Carolina
NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
Last week: 10-3 Season: 78-25

Posted on 31st October 2009 by Joey G
Under: Expert (muffled laughter) picks | No Comments »

Week 8 fantasy preview

SMART STARTS
Steve Slaton, RB, Texans:
Houston plays the Bills, whose run defense is poor. Somehow, the Panthers didn’t take advantage of that fact will, but the Texans will, possibly producing a 100-yard game with a TD or two for Slaton.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He’s the best fantasy player on the worst team in the league, and St. Louis plays another bad team in Detroit. Jackson might turn in his best game of the season, which unfortunately for the Rams, isn’t saying much.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: Austin proved he’s no fluke with another two-touchdown game. Though unlikely to repeat the obscene numbers of his last two games, he should top 100 yards and perhaps score a TD against the Seahawks.

SLEEP TIGHT
Austin Collie, WR, Colts:
Anthony Gonzalez isn’t quite ready to return, and Reggie Wayne isn’t 100 percent healthy. And of course, Peyton Manning is the Colts’ quarterback. Considering all this, Collie could deliver the best game of his young career.

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: The last quarterback to play the Titans threw six touchdowns. Granted, Garrard is no Tom Brady, but he should still take advantage of Tennessee for at least 250 yards and 2-3 touchdowns.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: It’s a sign how far Tomlinson’s stock has dropped that he’s a sleeper, but let’s face facts: The Chargers are going to run all over the Raiders on Sunday. Expect Tomlinson’s best game of the season.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Donald Lee, TE, Packers:
With Jermichael Finley injured, it would make sense the Lee would get more targets. But with the Packers hosting Brett Favre and the Vikings, nothing might make sense, and in what might be an emotional game, I don’t think Aaron Rodgers trusts Lee enough to integrate him heavily into the offense Sunday.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Smith took over the starting job in the second half last week and looked confident after years of struggling. He’s a good sleeper pickup this week, but against the Colts, he’s just not worth starting. Wait until Week 9, when the 49ers host the Titans.

Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos: Everyone keeps waiting for the Broncos to lose and Orton to turn in a bad game. I think at Baltimore might be it, especially since the Ravens will be fighting to stay above .500. Orton might not completely stink, but he won’t put up numbers worthy of starting, even as a bye-week replacement.

Posted on 30th October 2009 by Joey G
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Week 7 redux

Minnesota’s Brett Favre committed two turnovers that Pittsburgh turned into touchdowns, pretty much giving the Steelers the victory. Think there are some Jets fans who watched the game feeling deja vu? After all, Favre started last season like he hadn’t aged, then descended the Jets into a morass of turnovers and losses.

I don’t think the Vikings are going to fall apart like the Jets did last year, but it should be remembered that Favre isn’t the perfect QB. I’m sure the Packers are remembering that as the Vikes prepare to play at Lambeau on Sunday.

Speaking of Jets …

– Give Mark Sanchez a break for eating that hot dog when his team was nearing the end of its easy victory over the Raiders. He was hungry and really not needed anymore; he wasn’t hot dogging (sorry, couldn’t resist).

– But don’t let Kansas City’s Larry Johnson off the hook for tweeting his displeasure after the Chiefs’ loss. He needs to be with another team next year: This marriage is over.

– There are some bad teams in the NFL this season, but why did the Bears pretend to be one of them against the Bengals? One week Chicago is solid, the next week is a disaster. Get ready for 7-9, Bears fans.

– Finally, with the Bills not throwing him the ball, I’m anticipating the Terrell Owens rant we’ve come to know and expect. He’s been unusually quiet the last few weeks as he’s been targeted less and less; something big is coming. And it should be entertaining.

Posted on 29th October 2009 by Joey G
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Post-Week 7 rankings

Not too much movement this week, with several teams making nothing more than a two-spot jump. The Falcons and Bears tie for the fall, down four each.

1. Colts (6-0)
2. Saints (6-0)
3. Broncos (6-0)
4. Patriots (5-2)
5. Steelers (5-2)
6. Vikings (6-1)
7. Cowboys (4-2)
8. Giants (5-2)
9. Eagles (4-2)
10. Cardinals (4-2)
11. Bengals (5-2)
12. Falcons (4-2)
13. Ravens (3-3)
14. Packers (4-2)
15. Texans (4-3)
16. Chargers (3-3)
17. Dolphins (3-4)
18. Jets (4-3)
19. Bears (3-3)
20. 49ers (3-3)
21. Jaguars (3-3)
22. Bills (3-4)
23. Seahawks (2-4)
24. Panthers (2-4)
25. Raiders (2-5)
26. Redskins (2-5)
27. Lions (1-5)
28. Chiefs (1-6)
29. Titans (0-6)
30. Browns (1-6)
31. Buccaneers (0-7)
32. Rams (0-7)

Posted on 27th October 2009 by Joey G
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Week 7 picks

No chatter, just picks:

WEEK 7
Chicago over CINCINNATI
Green Bay over CLEVELAND
San Diego over KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis over ST. LOUIS
HOUSTON over San Francisco
PITTSBURGH over Minnesota
New England over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA over Buffalo
N.Y. Jets over OAKLAND
New Orleans over MIAMI
DALLAS over Atlanta
N.Y. GIANTS over Arizona
Philadelphia over WASHINGTON
Last week: 9-5 Season: 68-22

Posted on 23rd October 2009 by Joey G
Under: Expert (muffled laughter) picks | No Comments »

Week 7 fantasy preview

Almost through half of the fantasy regular season. It goes quick …

SMART STARTS
Ryan Grant, RB, Packers:
Green Bay faces the Browns, who rank 30th in run defense. Granted (ugh, couldn’t resist), the Packers will pass the ball too, but unless they fall asleep like the Eagles did last week against the Raiders, the offense should cruise, producing 100 yards and a touchdown for Grant.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: The San Diego running game just isn’t getting the job done, and now LaDainian Tomlinson has the flu. The Chargers desperately need a victory against the Chiefs to stay within striking distance of the Broncos in the AFC West. Rivers should come out guns ablazing, throwing for at least three touchdowns.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Houston will pass early and often against San Francisco, and Schaub has never looked better or healthier lately. Expect another big week.

OK TO DOZE
Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals:
Benson has something to prove against the Bears, and even if the Bears have something to prove against Benson, their defense can only shut down one thing at a time, and I’m guessing it will be the Bengals’ passing game. That said, Benson could pile up some decent stats at home.

Eli Manning, RB, Giants:
Ahmad Bradshaw is a little nicked up, Brandon Jacobs is annoyed, and the Giants are playing a great run defense (yeah, I’m surprised by that last fact, too) but a bad pass defense in Arizona. In what might be a shootout, don’t be surprised if Manning tops 300 yards and throws at least three TDs.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs:
We’re still waiting to see if Johnson will break out sometime this season. This a good week for that to happen — at home in a game that K.C. will want to control. He’s a big risk, but if you need a bye-week RB replacement, he might be worth the risk.

NO DICE
Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints:
Mike Bell was getting goal-line carries for the Saints last week instead of Thomas, and honestly, the Saints really didn’t need a rushing game. This week, they face the Dolphins’ excellent run defense and so-so pass defense. All this might translate to a below-average game for Thomas.

Any Buccaneer:The Bucs are playing the might-be-invincible-again Patriots in London. New England won’t shut down Tampa Bay like it did Tennessee, but it will keep the Bucs’ offense in check. That and the travel overseas makes Cadillac Williams and Kellen Winslow borderline starts at best, and everyone else benchable.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers:
Carolina’s offense is all about the run now, with Smith possibly left by the fantasy wayside. The Bills are actually decent against the pass. Smith’s tough to sit, but proceed with caution.

Posted on 23rd October 2009 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »