2007 August - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for August, 2007

Fantasy rankings: Wide receivers

Wide receivers run deep this year, no pun intended. But there are questions after you get through about the first 10.

Will Marques Colston follow up his amazing success of last year? Can Randy Moss return to form with the Patriots? Can Darrell Jackson stay healthy? But any fears surrounding the pool of WR2s might be allayed by the depth in the next group. You should be able to get three decent receivers even in bigger leagues.

1. Marvin Harrison, Colts
2. Steve Smith, Panthers
3. Chad Johnson, Bengals
4. Torry Holt, Rams
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts
6. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
8. Roy Williams, Lions
9. Javon Walker, Broncos
10. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
11. Marques Colston, Saints
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
13. Donald Driver, Packers
14. Randy Moss, Patriots
15. Lee Evans, Bills
16. Andre Johnson, Texans
17. Plaxico Burress, Giants
18. Hines Ward, Steelers
19. Santana Moss, Redskins
20. Darrell Jackson, 49ers
21. Laveranues Coles, Jets
22. Chris Chambers, Dolphins
23. Calvin Johnson, Lions
24. Reggie Brown, Eagles
25. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
26. Braylon Edwards, Browns
27. Terry Glenn, Cowboys
28. Deion Branch, Seahawks
29. Greg Jennings, Packers
30. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
31. Bernard Berrian, Bears
32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
33. Donte Stallworth, Patriots
34. Mark Clayton, Ravens
35. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
36. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
37. Devery Henderson, Saints
38. Ronald Curry, Raiders
39. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
40. Jerry Porter, Raiders
41. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
42. Matt Jones, Jaguars
43. Joe Horn, Falcons
44. Isaac Bruce, Rams
45. Mike Furrey, Lions
46. Desmond Mason
47. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
48. Drew Ben\nett, Rams
49. Brandon Jones, Titans
50. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
51. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
52. Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
53. Amani Toomer, Giants
54. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
55. Marty Booker, Dolphins
56. Wes Welker, Patriots
57. Troy Williamson, Vikings
58. Eric Parker, Chargers
59. Bryant Johnson, Cardinals
60. Drew Carter, Panthers
61. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
62. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
63. Arnaz Battle, 49ers
64. Robert Meachem, Saints
65. Rod Smith, Bronocs
66. Kevin Walter, Texans
67. Michael Clayton, Buccaneers
68. Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins
69. Terrance Copper, Saints
70. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
71. Joe Jurevicius, Browns
72. Tab Perry, Bengals
73. Bobby Wade, Vikings
74. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
75. Samie Parker, Chiefs
76. Hank Baskett, Eagles
77. Sidney Rice, Vikings
78. David Givens, Titans
79. Peerless Price, Bills
80. Maurice Stovall, Buccaneers
81. Steve Smith, Giants
82. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
83. Keenan McCardell, Texans
84. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
85. Devin Hester, Bears
86. Roscoe Parrish, Bills
87. Brad Smith, Jets
88. Sinorice Moss, Giants
89. Eric Moulds, Titans
90. Mike Walker, Jaguars
91. Dennis Northcutt, Jaguars
92. Josh Reed, Bills

Posted on 16th August 2007
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Fantasy rankings: Running backs

The rankings continue …

The running back is the marquee position in fantasy football, and the one, in my opinion, most fraught with danger. Steady producers one season can be a bust the next. Big-yardage running backs suddenly stop scoring touchdowns. RBs off the fantasy radar steal TDs from starters. Yet running back production can break a make a team. It can be maddening.

Looking at the rankings, LaDainian Tomlinson is the obvious, overwhelming No. 1, while Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson are clearly the next two. After that, I saw so much variation over the next several picks. Shaun Alexander came in at No. 4, while I moved up Rudi Johnson to 5, call it a hunch (despite him not getting the receptions of some other top RBs). But the next several running backs are solid RB1s, it’s a very deep year for the position. That depth is evident in the 20s, where late RB2s and RB3s emerge — in past drafts, you could do much worse than having Jamal Lewis or Cadillac Williams as your third running back

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Steven Jackson, Rams
3. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
4. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
5. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
6. Frank Gore, 49ers
7. Willie Parker, Steelers
8. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
9. Joseph Addai, Colts
10. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
11. Reggie Bush, Saints
12. Travis Henry, Broncos
13. Willis McGahee, Ravens
14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
15. Clinton Portis, Redskins
16. Cedric Benson, Bears
17. Thomas Jones, Jets
18. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
19. Deuce McAllister, Saints
20. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
21. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
22. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
23. Marion Barber III, Cowboys
24. Jamal Lewis, Browns
25. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
26. Ahman Green, Texans
27. Brandon Jackson, Packers
28. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
29. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
30. Chester Taylor, Vikings
31. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
32. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
33. Julius Jones, Cowboys
34. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
35. Kevin Jones, Lions
36. Ladell Betts, Redskins
37. DeShaun Foster, Panthers
38. Tatum Bell, Broncos
39. Warrick Dunn, Falcons
40. LenDale White, Titans
41. Chris Henry, Titans
42. Vernand Morency, Packers
43. Rueben Droughns, Giants
44. Mike Bell, Broncos
45. Anthony Thomas, Bills
46. Michael Turner, Chargers
47. Dominic Rhodes, Raiders
48. Leon Washington, Jets
49. Ron Dayne, Texans
50. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
51. Chris Brown, Titans
52. Michael Pittman, Buccaneers
53. T.J. Duckett, Lions
54. Adrian Peterson, Bears
55. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
56. Michael Bennett, Chiefs
57. Lorenzo Booker, Dolphins
58. Najeh Davenport, Steelers
59. Mike Anderson, Ravens
60. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
61. Sammy Morris, Patriots
62. Michael Bush, Raiders
63. Michael Robinson, 49ers
64. Brian Leonard, Rams
65. Tony Hunt, Eagles
66. Kevan Barlow, Steelers
67. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
68. Maurice Hicks, 49ers
69. Wali Lundy, Texans
70. Cedric Houston, Jets
71. DeDe Dorsey, Colts
72. Greg Jones, Jaguars
73. Musa Smith, Ravens
74. Noah Herron, Packers
75. Jason Wright, Browns
76. Mewelde Moore, Vikings
77. Jerome Harrison, Browns
78. Justin Griffith, Raiders

Posted on 15th August 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks

Here is the first installment of my fantasy rankings for 2007.

I’ve been doing rankings this way for years, and it’s nothing too radical. In fact, it’s a little like average draft position — I take preseason rankings from a variety of sources, average them together, do some of my own adjustments, and come up with a list. I like my method mostly because I don’t trust just one source. No matter how thorough a fantasy football source is, it won’t be perfect, and it is basing some of its judgments on opinions, and opinions can be biased. One magazine might like a player another Web site doesn’t. Even after compiling my initial lists, I still do my own adjustments, inject my own opinions. I hope this variety creates a more unbiased set of data I can work off of.

Another reason I do rankings this way — I have to type out a lot of names. When I get to draft day, I at least have some idea on who each player is, what team he plays for, how he did last year and what is expected for him this year. That mere typing or writing of the names goes a long way in familiarity.

Now to the rankings. First off is quarterbacks, and Peyton Manning is overwhelmingly No. 1. I see the first major dropoff of talent around No. 5-6, depending on whether you believe Donovan McNabb will return to form following his knee injury. The dropoff means, if there is a run where all those QBs go off the board, you should be able to wait a little before you need to select someone from the next tier. That next tier goes from Matt Hasselbeck at No. 7 down to about Jay Cutler at 14. After that are strictly QB2s.

QUARTERBACKS
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Tom Brady, Patriots
5. Marc Bulger, Rams
6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
8. Jon Kitna, Lions
9. Vince Young, Titans
10. Philip Rivers, Chargers
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys
12. Eli Manning, Giants
13. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
14. Jay Cutler, Broncos
15. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
16. Brett Favre, Packers
17. J.P. Losman, Bills
18. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
19. Rex Grossman, Bears
20. Alex Smith, 49ers
21. Chad Pennington, Jets
22. Matt Schaub, Texans
23. Steve McNair, Ravens
24. Trent Green, Dolphins
25. Jason Campbell, Redskins
26. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
27. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
28. Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
29. Tavaris Jackson, Vikings
30. Michael Vick, Falcons
31. Joey Harrington, Falcons
32. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
33. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
34. Charlie Frye, Browns
35. Brady Quinn, Browns
36. Damon Huard, Chiefs
37. David Carr, Panthers
38. Chris Simms, Buccaneers
39. David Garrard, Jaguars

Posted on 14th August 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

We had joy, we had fun, we had preseasons in the sun

The NFL preseason is in full swing, and I’m trying hard to watch. Really, I am.

I have never been able to get into preseason football. After months with no games, you would think anything would be welcome. Maybe others look forward to those first preseason games, but I’m ambivalent. It just so lacks the drama, the overall urgency, the meaningfulness, that I generally don’t concern myself. I know from a fantasy perspective, I should watch, and with more preseason games popping up on NFL Network, there’s really no excuse, right?. There was a nationally televised game Sunday night, and instead I watched “History Detectives and “Scott Baio is 45 and Single” while multitasking some fantasy stuff.

I’m sure I’m not the only one bored by the preseason. There’s always been griping that the preseason is too long, and calls for the NFL to reduce it by a couple games. The owners don’t like that because they’d lose revenue from the extra home, albeit preseason, game. What about decreasing the preseason and adding to the regular season? Wouldn’t an 18-game regular season be cool? I doubt the union would ever go for it — two more weeks of non-playoff, non-exhibition games are two more weeks of potential injuries to already tired players — and it might decrease the quality of play a little (rosters surely would need to be expanded to cover the extra weeks, watering down the talent pool), but I am inclined to think fans would love it.

Alas, I think we’re stuck with the current setup. In the meantime, I’m looking forward to next weekend’s Detroit-Cleveland game. Oooh.

Posted on 13th August 2007
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

The law of averages

One of the latest rages in fantasy football draft preparation is average draft position, or ADP. Essentially, a Web site takes the results of a number of mock and/or real drafts, then produces a composite list of where each player was taken on average. ADP isn’t a ranking so much as a poll that reveals what other fantasy owners are thinking and how they are drafting.

I like ADP — it’s a decent indication how the typical fantasy football owner, one who has done some moderate studying and is going off a good cheat sheet, will typically draft. It also helps in later rounds — if there’s a player you covet who is still available, an ADP might help you assess the odds if he will still be available when the draft comes back to you (or if you can pass him and wait for the next round). Drafts are always unpredictable, but an ADP at least gives you some extra information on what to expect within the norm.

That said, don’t be too tied to average draft position. If you like a player in the first round, and an ADP says you are taking him a few spots too high, but you know he won’t be there in the next round, ignore the ADP and take the player. Just because the whole fantasy football populace thinks one thing doesn’t mean that populace will be right as the season goes along. Your intuition and research is just as important as the analysis within an ADP.

One site with average draft position I liked was fantasyfootballcalculator.com. As well as having mock drafts aplenty (both to peruse and participate in), its ADP charts include a graph option, where you can view how the average draft position of a player changed over the past several weeks. Click on LaDainian Tomlinson’s graph to see a straight line …

JG

Posted on 10th August 2007
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A matter of record

I’m going to switch sports a little to focus on Barry Bonds breaking baseball’s all-time home run record tonight. Whether you think he did it fairly or not, whether you are happy, upset, neutral or indifferent that he broke the record, whether he keeps it for as long as Hank Aaron did (my bet is Alex Rodriguez passes it eventually, and then maybe Albert Pujols) — the record belongs to Bonds tonight, he is baseball’s home run king.

The record got me thinking about NFL records. They aren’t as glamorous, longstanding or well-known. Where some baseball records exist merely out of longevity of the game (Cy Young’s all-time wins record), or because of the changes in the game (Young’s aforementioned record, Rickey Henderson’s stolen bases record which likely will never be approached until smallball makes a huge comeback), or because of the sheer awesome ridiculousness of the mark (Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, for example), football’s records are inevitably broken as the game gets faster, more complex, and as players stay healthier longer. Think of Brett Favre’s consecutive games streak (OK, that might be a hard one to break) — it’s amazing he’s stayed that healthy for that long. But the other passing records (Favre likely will pass Dan Marino for career passing TDs) will inevitably fall, maybe by Peyton Manning, maybe by another QB that is primed for even greater success.

So what is the glamor record of the NFL? It must be the all-time rushing record, held by Emmitt Smith with 18,355 yards. I watched him break Walter Payton’s record, and I watched Payton break Jim Brown’s record. But there are now seven rushers with more than Brown’s 12,312 yards, and a whopping 20 over 10,000 yards. I remember when Franco Harris became the third RB to pass 10,000 and thinking, ooh!; now it’s no big deal — four more might pass it this year, including LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor and … Warrick Dunn? Do you consider Warrick Dunn one of the elite running backs in NFL history?

But I digress. Emmitt’s record will fall. He wouldn’t have had it if Barry Sanders hadn’t retired early, and you have to think that as long as LT stays healthy, he’ll be there in about 6-8 years. Not to dismiss Smith’s accomplishment, but the record was meant to be broken. If it’s not LT, it will be another running back. There will be fanfare, but nothing like the circus that was Bonds’ case of Aaron (and it would have been a circus regardless of all the controversy surrounding Bonds). The NFL record is a big deal, but the league’s history is more steeped in Super Bowls. Baseball shares its history between the World Series and its revered records. That’s not a bad thing — baseball thrives on that history more than any other sport (no, I won’t launch into James Earl Jones’ speech from “Field of Dreams — it just what sets the two leagues apart.

Posted on 8th August 2007
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Pacman’s maze

Pacman Jones has done so much to damage his image, what better place to try improving it than the world of professional wrestling!

Jones, suspended for the entire season by the NFL for a myriad of bad decisions, signed a contract with TNA Wrestling. It’s unclear if his act will include actual wrestling.

Wasn’t it Pacman’s “act” — his appearance at a Las Vegas strip club throwing money around — what got him into big trouble in the first place? It’s refreshing to know an athlete who damages his reputations seemingly beyond repair still can be a doofus rather than try to repair the reputation. At least when Dennis Rodman was wearing a wedding dress after all the stunts he pulled, he had championship rings to back it up. I doubt there’s a Super Bowl title in Pacman’s future. Maybe not even another NFL game.

Now if Pacman dresses up as the real Pac-Man (just a yellow suit will do) on his first TNA appearance, then gets hit with a chair by a wrestler with an odd resemblance to Blinky, that will be entertainment!

Posted on 7th August 2007
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Here’s a story, about a man named Brady

Only five first-round picks are unsigned, and one of them is Brady Quinn. And the Browns are getting impatient.

It seems Quinn is not signing because, the Browns say, they don’t want to pay him more than your typical No. 22 pick. Quinn, the former Notre Dame quarterback, slipped into the later first round after being a projected top-10 selection, fell to No. 22.

Whether this is Quinn or his agent driving this, or the Browns being cheap, Quinn needs to get signed and get into camp. Does he want to start as a rookie? He won’t the longer he holds out, particularly if Charlie Frye gets a few wins early. Yes, Brady, you dropped in the draft, it happens, particularly with quarterbacks (remember Aaron Rodgers?). Swallow your pride (or fire your agent), get into camp, prove yourself, get a big contract the next time around.

Hopefully, JaMarcus Russell is listening, too.

Posted on 5th August 2007
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Let the bidding begin

I tried my first fantasy football auction, and I can say, it was fun.

Usually, fantasy auctions are the stuff of baseball, but ones for football are becoming increasingly popular. The auction I took part in, at Fantasy Auctioneer, was only a mock draft, so it wasn’t for a real league, but gave me a taste on what the format is like.

The strategy is definitely different. If you really like a player, odds are you will get him, but perhaps at the expense of the rest of your team. And the mock auction I joined got less serious about halfway through — one player wasn’t drafting yet never logged out, which threw the economic balance off a little; and three computer teams were included, and I don’t think the computer teams are too bright. I doubt in a real auction I’d nab Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison (which I inexplicably did, damn I wish that was a real league!).

I might try a few more mock drafts before I give a real auction league a try. It’s definitely an entertaining change of pace from the typical snake draft.

Posted on 3rd August 2007
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