We’re into the home stretch, when the fun really begins …

SMART STARTS
– Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. Another must-start despite his injury problems this season, Jackson has almost completely returned to form, and St. Louis will need him against Atlanta with Marc Bulger sidelined.

– Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals. Expect another shootout when Arizona hosts Cleveland, and expect more guady numbers from Warner.

– Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. If the Ravens figure out how to slow down Randy Moss like the Eagles, did, then Welker will post another big game.

SNOOZERS
– Adrian Peterson, RB, Bears. Going far out on a limb on this sleeper, but the other Peterson will step up and top 100 yards in his first week replacing the injured Cedric Benson.

– Roy Williams, WR, Lions. Williams has been up and down all season, more down. Just a hunch that he has an up week at Minnesota.

– Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts. Gonzalez topped 100 yards for the first time last week, and with Marvin Harrison still a question mark, look for another decent game and maybe a TD by the rookie.

A FOUNTAIN OF PESSIMISM
– Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens. Baltimore won’t scare New England like Philly did, and McGahee will be shut down by the Pats’ defense.

– Any Carolina Panther. Wow, has this season gone to hell for the Panthers, and not just in fantasy terms. I know it’s tough not to start Steve Smith, but do you honestly think the Carolina offense is going to improve this week?

– Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs. He had a nice breakout game against the Raiders last week, but I don’t think he’ll repeat that against the Chargers.

Thursday night’s Green Bay-Dallas game lived up to the hype — it was entertaining, competitive and put one team in control of the NFC.

But were the Cowboys really that good? Though they won 37-27, they should have been able to put the Packers away earlier but were unable to do so, just like they have in a few games this year. At some point, maybe not until the playoffs, an opponent will make the Cowboys pay (the Patriots sort of did in October). If the Packers were able to play defense when they needed to, and avoided those big pass interference penalties (including one Green Bay fans who were able to watch the game will criticize), they might have won this game, even without Brett Favre (by the way, wasn’t Aaron Rodgers solid?)

The Packers have mostly an easy schedule, though they will play at Chicago.in Week 16. Dallas goes on the road to Detroit, then gets Philly, Carolina and Washington. That’s not unfavorable either, but the Cowboys can’t let up. They are the best team in the NFC, but they must be better to win the Super Bowl.

I hope if your pick’em league uses point spreads you took the Eagles last week. Don’t feel bad, I didn’t either. By the way, my season record is a game off, and I can’t figure out where. Assume a nonexistent tie until I get it figured out.

WEEK 13
DALLAS over Green Bay
TENNESSEE over Houston
San Diego over KANSAS CITY
ST. LOUIS over Atlanta
MIAMI over N.Y. Jets
MINNESOTA over Detroit
NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay
PHILADELPHIA over Seattle
WASHINGTON over Buffalo
San Francisco over CAROLINA
Cleveland over ARIZONA
Denver over OAKLAND
CHICAGO over N.Y. Giants
PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
New England over BALTIMORE
Last week: 10-6 Season: 113-78

Don’t forget the short week — I might not get a preview out for Week 13, but Tony Romo, Brett Favre and Terrell Owens are obvious must-starts. Back to Week 12 …

STARS
– Bears D/ST. Two words: Devin Hester. The defense forced a few turnovers too.

– Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals. Ocho Cinco easily turned in his best game of the season, scoring three touchdowns and catching 12 passes for 105 yards. And admit it, you missed his post-TD antics.

–Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals. It was a Warner flashback to 1999 — Warner went 34-for-48 for 484 yards, two TDs yet two picks. And the Cards lost this game!

SURPRISES
– Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs. With Larry Johnson sidelined, Priest Holmes very sidelined and Michael Bennett traded, Smith stepped up with 150 yards rushing and two TDs.

– A.J. Feeley, QB, Eagles. Nobody saw this coming, particularly the Patriots: 345 passing yards and three touchdowns.

– Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. It’s sad when the No. 4 pick in many fantasy drafts turns in a surprise performance on Week 12. Gore rushed for 116 yards and scored two touchdowns, turning him from a supreme bust to simply a major bust.

SLOTHS
– Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Moss owners must have been disappointed by his non-superhuman numbers of five receptions, 43 yards, no touchdowns.

– Just about any Steeler or Dolphin. OK, Willie Parker and Hines Ward weren’t all that bad., but it was a fantasy mudfest at Heinz Field. Mother Nature must have been playing someone (Heat Miser likes the Steelers — hope someone got that reference) with Ben Roethlisberger on his fantasy team.

– Eli Manning, QB, Giants. Too bad Eli didn’t have this four-interception game the same week his brother threw six — imagine 10 Manning interceptions in one day.

Monday night’s Steelers-Dolphins game was simply unwatchable. A 3-0 game can be exciting if it’s a defensive battle, not a battle against the elements. There have been so many complaints about this game that I won’t rehash, but could that have been the Dolphins’ best chance to win? Would it have been a hollow 1-15 if they had won? Also, how miserable for the fans it must have been, to sit through the rain and watch bad football. Too bad you can’t get a rain check simply for a bad game.

More on the weekend that was:

– I’m calling it now, two 9-7 teams will make the playoffs. I’d say two 8-8 teams, but I think the Seahawks and Chargers might have enough momentum to stay above .500.

– It’s been a bad month for running backs returning from “retirement” only to watch it end quickly. First Priest Holmes reinjures his neck, then Ricky Williams tears a chest muscle on the sixth play of his comeback. At least Williams knows how to stay mellow. WITH YOGA! What do you think I was going to suggest?

– One interesting thought I heard over the weekend was Donovan McNabb as a Bear next season. It makes sense, he’s from Chicago, would be a good fit for that offense, and is clearly a step up from Rex Grossman or Brian Griese. That said, without Devin Hester, the Bears’ record is even worse. It’s been that rough a season.

– Finally, on a serious note, how sad is the death of Washington’s Sean Taylor? For a moment, forget about the effect on the Redskins and the shock and sadness when this happens (and the sadness that this happened again after the death of Denver’s Darrent Williams) and how a young life was cut down too early, and keep in your thoughts the 18-month-old daughter he leaves behind. Amidst all the tragedies of his death, that’s the greatest one.

For the record, the Patriots would have stayed No. 1 even if they had lost. Doing the rankings this week, it occurs to me, again, there are a lot of crudirifcic (if you allow me to create a word) teams in the league. Is it parody or is it crud? You make the call! The Vikings, Saints, Raiders and 49ers make the biggest jumps, six spots each; the Giants fall six for the week’s biggest tumble.

1. Patriots (11-0)
2. Cowboys (10-1)
3. Packers (10-1)
4. Colts (9-2)
5. Jaguars (8-3)
6. Browns (7-4)
7. Steelers (8-3)
8. Buccaneers (7-4)
9. Seahawks (7-4)
10. Chargers (6-5)
11. Giants (6-5)
12. Titans (6-5)
13. Eagles (5-6)
14. Lions (6-5)
15. Vikings (5-6)
16. Saints (5-6)
17. Bears (5-6)
18. Redskins (5-6)
19. Broncos (5-6)
20. Texans (5-6)
21. Bills (5-6)
22. Cardinals (5-6)
23. Bengals (4-7)
24. Raiders (3-8)
25. 49ers (3-8)
26. Chiefs (4-7)
27. Ravens (4-7)
28. Panthers (4-7)
29. Falcons (3-8)
30. Jets (2-9)
31. Rams (2-9)
32. Dolphins (0-11)

The Eagles proved Sunday night that the Patriots can be beat. They just weren’t able to do it.

Still, Sunday night’s game was a reminder that maybe the Pats aren’t as invincible as they might appear. I don’t know if someone will defeat them in the last five games (if the Steelers can get their act together and anticipate how the Patriots adjust after this game, they will have the best shot), but the playoffs should be fair game. However, this might be chilling for New England’s foes — when the Patriots needed to execute in the fourth quarter, they did, with Tom Brady and Wes Welker leading what would be the game-winning drive (with Randy Moss catching nary a pass) and the defense stopping A.J. Feely.

– A word of advice to Bear opponents: STOP KICKING THE BALL TO DEVIN HESTER. If the Broncos miss the playoffs because they lost this game …

– A lot of seemingly mediocre teams won Sunday — San Francisco, Oakland, Minnesota, Chicago, New Orleans, Cincinnati and almost Philadelphia. It was definitely a week for parody.

– Only five more regular-season Sundays left. Start planning that Super Bowl party now.

I didn’t think it would come to this, but it has — 10-1 Dallas faces 10-1 Green Bay on Thursday night. At stake is home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (one of these teams would have to completely self-destruct to not get a first-round bye).

Is this matchup as big as Patriots-Colts a few weeks ago? Not quite, but like that first game, it might be a preview of the conference championship. The only team that might shake off the Cowboys or Packers in the weak NFC are the Giants, and I’m not convinced they aren’t simply the best team in a mediocre second tier (unlike the AFC, where the Steelers and Jaguars might legitimately challenge the Pats and Colts). Thursday’s game will set the tone for the NFC championship, assuming no missteps along the way, with the winner feeling pressure as the front-runner, the loser looking for revenge, and both having to deflect critics who’ll say the AFC championship is really the Super Bowl. I read something this week that reminded me of how good the Cowboys are: They were beating the Patriots in their matchup earlier in the season and would be undefeated if they held on. Furthermore, the Packers are just one bad game against the Bears from being 11-0.

These are two good teams, with two good quarterbacks, playing excellent football. In that regard, the matchup is worthy of the hype.

As I watched Thursday’s Thanksgiving games, including Brett Favre’s 381-yard day that surely will be remembered among the top performances for the holiday, I tried to recall what was the most memorable Thanksgiving game in my lifetime. Surely, the Leon Lett debacle of 1993 ranks up there. But for me personally, nothing tops Bears-Lions 1980.

We are watching the game in my grandparents’ living room, and it goes to overtime. The Bears, who would not go to the playoffs this season and began their slide which wouldn’t end until 1984 when they reached the NFC championship, receive the kickoff. David Williams gets the ball and returns it for a touchdown in the victory in what was the shortest overtime in NFL history (I think Brett Favre’s TD pass against the Broncos might have broke that record). It was fortunate I didn’t go into my grandparents’ dining room for another dessert, or I would have missed the TD and the victory.

Yeah, Leon Lett is probably more memorable, or Tony Romo’s coming-out party last year, or Ron Dayne’s big OT run a couple years ago, or a host of other Thanksgiving games that have slipped out of my brain. Maybe it was the exciting Bears finish — there weren’t many in the early ’80s. Maybe it was simply watching the game at my grandparents’ house on the holiday. Either way, the Thanksgiving games are one of the NFL’s great traditions.

Hoping I suggest no turkeys this week. Hoping that’s the last bad pun I try, too.

SMART STARTS
– Willie Parker, RB, Steelers. He’s a must-start anyway, but look for Parker to rebound from his one-week aberration and top 100 yards again. A touchdown would be nice, too.

– Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks. Another must-start, Hasselbeck has delivered for a Seattle offense without a running game. He’ll turn in another big game against the Rams

– Derek Anderson, QB, Browns. It should be another points-aplenty game for Cleveland against the Texans, and Anderson will continue his surprising season with a 300-yard, three-TD game. Doesn’t look like Brady Quinn will be seeing the field anytime soon.

YAWN!
– Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. Despite two interceptions and San Diego losing, Rivers put up OK fantasy numbers last week, and I see him doing the same, if not improving, at home against the struggling Ravens.

– Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Kansas City’s running game took a hit when Priest Holmes retired, again. With only a passing game to rely on, Bowe might turn in another good day in his solid rookie season.

– David Garrard, QB, Jaguars. In his first game back, Garrard was solid and threw two touchdowns against the Chargers. If he continues to stay healthy and throw TDs, he might find himself as a low-end fantasy QB1 by the end of the season.

MAYBE NOT
– Falcons defense. Atlanta placed its two starting defensive tackles on injured reserve this week. And the Colts offense is bound to revert to form sometime, likely Thursday night at the Georgia Dome.

– Rex Grossman, QB, Bears. Hate to say it, but Grossman’s adequate return to starter will implode against the Broncos’ defense. I’m very curious who will start at quarterback for the Bears next year.

– J.P. Losman, QB, Bills. No resurgence here, either, particularly on the road against the Jaguars.