Set your picks early, remember, there are three games now on Thanksgiving, not two.

WEEK 12
Green Bay over DETROIT
DALLAS over N.Y. Jets
Indianapolis over ATLANTA
Denver over CHICAGO
Tennessee over CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND over Houston
KANSAS CITY over Oakland
Seattle over ST. LOUIS
TAMPA BAY over Washington
CAROLINA over New Orleans
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo
N.Y. GIANTS over Minnesota
ARIZONA over San Francisco
SAN DIEGO over Buffalo
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia
PITTSBURGH over Miami
Last week: 13-3 Season: 103-72

Before recapping, I can’t stress this enough: SET YOUR LINEUPS AND MAKE YOUR PICKS EARLY. Three Thursday games, don’t forget.

STARS
– Randy Moss, WR, Patriots. After Tom Brady, he’s this year’s second-biggest fantasy surprise (mostly because of Brady). Moss went big Sunday night, catching 10 passes for 128 yards and four touchdowns.

– Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys. Moss didn’t even have the best receiving performance of the week, not with Owens’ 8-reception, 173-yard, 4-TD game.

– Vince Young, QB, Titans. Young turned in his best fantasy performance of the season, passing for 305 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 74 yards and a TD. Good stats that make up for the two interceptions he threw.

SURPRISES
– Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings. I thought Taylor might have a big game filling in for Adrian Peterson, but these stats were just silly: 164 yards rushing and three TDs. Now if the Vikes just had a passing game …

– D.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks. He enjoyed a career day: nine receptions, 136 yards and a TD.

– Drew Carter, WR, Panthers. Now why hasn’t Steve Smith been able to do this lately? Well he couldn’t Sunday because he was injured, while Carter caught five passes for 132 yards and a TD.

SLOTHS
– Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. Another rough game for Manning, though he threw five less interceptions this week.

– Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. Stick a fork in Gore, he’s done. Fifteen carries, 32 yards. At least Larry Johnson rebounded from his bad start before he got injured — meaning Gore is officially this year’s biggest fantasy bust.

– Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. Portis’ two-game streak of impressive games ended after carrying 12 times for 36 yards and no touchdowns against the Cowboys.

Got a lot to cram in here in a few days with the three Thanksgiving games ahead. First, the new rankings. The biggest jump of the week goes to the Vikings, up six, while the Saints and Bills take the biggest tumbles, down five.

1. Patriots (10-0)
2. Cowboys (9-1)
3. Packers (9-1)
4. Colts (8-2)
5. Giants (7-3)
6. Jaguars (7-3)
7. Browns (6-4)
8. Steelers (7-3)
9. Buccaneers (6-4)
10. Seahawks (6-4)
11. Lions (6-4)
12. Titans (6-4)
13. Chargers (5-5)
14. Eagles (5-5)
15. Texans (5-5)
16. Broncos (5-5)
17. Cardinals (5-5)
18. Redskins (5-5)
19. Bills (5-5)
20. Bears (4-6)
21. Vikings (4-6)
22. Saints (4-6)
23. Panthers (4-6)
24. Ravens (4-6)
25. Chiefs (4-6)
26. Bengals (3-7)
27. Falcons (3-7)
28. Jets (2-8)
29. Rams (2-8)
30. Raiders (2-8)
31. 49ers (2-8)
32. Dolphins (0-10)

I’m convinced, the Patriots are going 16-0. Even though the Bills were without Marshawn Lynch, I thought they might hang with the Pats for a little while. Not quite, it was 35-7 at halftime. Unless the Steelers, who lost to the lowly Jets, can figure out a way, no one is stopping New England until the playoffs.

Some other musings:

– Brett Favre and the Packers won the Geritol Bowl, beating Vinny Testaverde and the Panthers 31-17. Unless my math is off, Testaverde won the Heisman while Favre was still in high school. I was surprised to find out today that the Packers have the second-youngest team in the league. That fact is just another testament how well Favre is playing this season.

– The Browns are headed for the playoffs. They didn’t fold last week, despite losing on Phil Dawson’s missed field goal, and they didn’t fold this week, when Dawson came through, albeit after further review. I’m declaring five locks in the AFC for the playoffs — the Pats, Colts, Steelers, Jaguars and the AFC West winner — it looks like the Browns and Titans might battle for the sixth spot.

– The Giants are headed for the playoffs. They ground out a tough victory over the Lions, and though I doubt they’ll catch the Cowboys, a wild-card spot is theirs to lose. Five locks here, too — Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Bucs and the NFC West winner. The suddenly struggling Lions, Eagles and maybe the Cardinals (if you believe the Seahawks will win the West) might contend for that last wild-card spot.

– This better be just a blip in Peyton Manning’s season, or him doing the best he can with the team’s injuries; otherwise, the Colts might be looking at the wild-card. At least he had five less interceptions than last week.

– Finally, what a day for star receivers with massive egos — Terrell Owens and Randy Moss each scored four touchdowns today. Too bad Keyshawn Johnson wasn’t in the league anymore, he might have had a career day, too.

I’m running errands this morning right around when the early games start. Listening to the radio, the first news I hear about one of my fantasy players is this: Braylon Edwards fumbled. We lose points for fumbles in my league, so at 10 minutes after the hour, I’m in negative points.

After hearing the Packers snagged an interception and I’m back at zero total points, I get this piece of news — my tight end, Owen Daniels, fumbled. So I’m back in the red. We arrive at Home Depot, and finally some good news — the Packers returned a punt for a TD. I got a high-five from my 3-year-old and went inside to shop.

Still, two fumbles to start off the day is a bad sign. It could be worse, our opponent has Peyton Manning, who has thrown another interception …

With the byes done, and most trading deadlines near, it’s just about time to sink or swim with your current team. In these final weeks before the fantasy playoffs, your most important decision might be who to start and who to sit. You have your entire team at your disposal, injuries notwithstanding, and sometimes the choices can be a little daunting. This week, I have to decide between Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin, and though I’m leaning toward Williams, I’m still undecided. It’s a good quandary to have, but nonetheless still a quandary that make these last few weeks particularly maddening.

SMART STARTS
– Marc Bulger, QB, Rams. He’s baaaaaack. It may be too late for the Rams to make the playoffs, but it looks like St. Louis players are ready to put up non-embarrassing fantasy numbers again, including Bulger against the 49ers on Sunday.

– Jon Kitna, QB, Lions. Look for Kitna to turn in another big game on his home turf, approaching 300 yards and two TDs again, hopefully this time without the two picks.

– Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals. It’s been a rough season, relatively, for Palmer, but he’ll put up good numbers at home against the Cardinals.

YAWN ABOUT THIS
– Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings. With Adrian Peterson sidelined, and the Raiders in town, Taylor becomes Minnesota’s best offensive option and a good sleeper at running back.

– Matt Schaub, QB, Texans. Houston had a week off for Schaub to heal a bit, and the Texans face a visiting Saints offense that couldn’s stop the Rams last week. My guess is Schaub will return to his early-season form.

– Greg Jennings, WR, Packers. Brett Favre’s newest favorite target, if you believe Ruvell Martin’s two-TD game was just a fluke, should find the end zone again Sunday against the struggling Panthers.

RISKY BUSINESS
– Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Jones’ first year with New York has been a disappointment, and it won’t improve against the Steelers. He should have stayed with the Bears — I’m sure Bears fans think so, too.

– Any Buccaneer or Falcon. The fantasy wasteland of the week. Earnest Graham might be splitting carries with the returning Michael Pittman, and the Falcons are, well, the Falcons.

– Bills defense. The unit has played admirably and produced some fantasy points, but against a rested Patriots team, even in an important game for the Bills, it might get ugly.

Back to a full slate, meaning a greater chance of success … and a greater chance of abysmal failure. Kind of like last week’s picks.

WEEK 11
Tampa Bay over ATLANTA
New England over BUFFALO
CINCINNATI over Arizona
DALLAS over Washington
GREEN BAY over Carolina
INDIANAPOLIS over Kansas City
MINNESOTA over Oakland
Pittsburgh over N.Y. JETS
PHILADELPHIA over Miami
JACKSONVILLE over San Diego
Cleveland over BALTIMORE
HOUSTON over New Orleans
St. Louis over SAN FRANCISCO
DETROIT over N.Y. Giants
SEATTLE over Chicago
DENVER over Tennessee
Last week: 6-8 Season: 90-59

The Colts placed defensive end Dwight Freeney injured reserve Tuesday, meaning the highest-player defensive end is done for the season.

Are the Colts done too? They have lost two straight, are being chased down by the Titans and Jaguars, might see the Steelers pass them for a first-round playoff bye, and likely will not catch the Patriots.

Even with Peyton Manning, Indy never got over the Super Bowl hump until its defense improved. It can’t be assumed that defense will automatically fall apart without Freeney, particularly since the Colts signed Simeon Rice, who has played for Tony Dungy before, to take Freeney’s place on the line.

My bet is the Colts will regroup. So they won’t finish 16-0, or 15-1, and I think 14-2 will be a stretch. But 12-4 is still the mark of a good football team, and their biggest challenge will be defeating New England on the road in the playoffs — a tall order for sure, but not impossible for Manning, Dungy and Co. I think the reports of Indy’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Another week, another round of frustration with Frank Gore …

STARS
– Brett Favre, QB, Packers. Favre’s comeback fantasy season continued with a 351-yard, three-TD performance against the Vikings. If Ryan Grant continues to run the ball well and take some pressure off the passing game, expect similar numbers from Favre the rest of the season.

– Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. It’s not too late for Jackson to shed the phrase “first-round fantasy bust” from his persona. He rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown and passed for a TD against to help St. Louis to its first victory.

– Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles. If Westbrook hadn’t been injured, we might be talking about him as fantasy MVP 1A (after Tom Brady, of course). Mr. Versatility delivered total yards and three touchdowns against Washington

SURPRISES
– Shayne Graham, K, Bengals. Less of a surprise than an indictment of the Cincinnati offense, but it’s a good thing any time your kicker boots seven field goals in a game.

– Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons. Antyime an Atlanta player can provide fantasy points, it’s a surprise. Dunn turned in a solid game with 89 yards rushing and a TD.

– Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins. Though Miami misses Ronnie Brown, Chatman filled in nicely with 124 yards rushing against the Bills.

SLOTHS
– Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. Six interceptions. If you are in a league that penalizes for picks, ’nuff said.

– Cowboy running backs: Julius Jones and Marion Barber III. The running back by committee combined for 82 yards and no scores. It’s always hit or miss with an RBBC, at least one of them needs to get in the end zone each week.

– Vinny Testaverde, QB, Panthers. Yeah, like this was really a surprise, though he proably performed better than David Carr would have.

Call it parity, or maybe parody — 16 teams are either 5-4 or 4-5. The Eagles make the biggest jump, eight places, while the Panthers suffer the biggest fall, from 17 to 23.

1. Patriots (9-0)
2. Cowboys (8-1)
3. Packers (8-1)
4. Colts (7-2)
5. Steelers (7-2)
6. Giants (6-3)
7. Jaguars (6-3)
8. Titans (6-3)
9. Chargers (5-4)
10. Lions (6-3)
11. Browns (5-4)
12. Buccaneers (5-4)
13. Seahawks (5-4)
14. Bills (5-4)
15. Redskins (5-4)
16. Eagles (4-5)
17. Saints (4-5)
18. Bears (4-5)
19. Texans (4-5)
20. Cardinals (4-5)
21. Broncos (4-5)
22. Chiefs (4-5)
23. Panthers (4-5)
24. Ravens (4-5)
25. Falcons (3-6)
26. Bengals (3-6)
27. Vikings (3-6)
28. Rams (1-8)
29. Raiders (2-7)
30. 49ers (2-7)
31. Jets (1-8)
32. Dolphins (0-9)