Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, who after a slow start, truly earned their Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Colts.

Not to take anything away from the Saints, but besides a defense that couldn’t stop Drew Brees in the second half and Peyton Manning’s ill-fated interception, Indy lost this game because of bad coaching decisions. Two jump out:

– The Colts stopped the Saints on fourth down at the 2, then proceeded to run the ball three times rather than push it downfield. They were forced to punt, and the Saints recaptured the momentum with a field goal just before halftime.

– Late in the game, with the Colts trying to cut the deficit to one TD … they inexplicably ran the ball on third down. It didn’t fool anybody and made fourth down too urgent. New Orleans’ defense held to win the game and the championship.

Finally, after months of football, weeks of playoffs, days of hype, the Super Bowl is almost here. If neither team plays much defense, this could be one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever. Expect the quarterback duel to live up to the hype, expect enough defense that viewers aren’t bored, and expect a close game.

NEW ORLEANS VS. INDIANAPOLIS
Why the Saints will win: New Orleans rallied a few times this season to earn key victories, so falling behind in the first half (unless the Colts go up by three touchdowns) shouldn’t be an issue. Quarterback Drew Brees is ready for this stage after being the undisputed leader of his team for a few years now. He guides an offense that knows how to gain yards and score points, via the run (Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush) and the short passing game (Bush and a bevy of good receivers, led my Marques Colston). With Colts defensive end hobbled Dwight Freeney hobbled, Brees could have more time to pass — time Indy can’t afford to give him. The Saints’ defense isn’t shabby, either, spurred by the resurgence of defensive back Darren Sharper. Granted, the defense didn’t look that good against the Vikings in the NFC championship, but it did come up with the turnovers needed to advance. Finally, there’s the whole “team of destiny” storyline in New Orleans five years removed from Hurricane Katrina.
Why the Colts will win: Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning. The veteran quarterback is back in the Super Bowl, where he has won once before. Manning’s season has been nothing short of stunning — not just statistically, but also by his decision-making, which is even better than before. Without a doubt, he can lead the Colts to a victory, more than and QB can lead their team to a victory in the today’s NFL. Manning is blessed with a mix of veterans (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark) and youngsters (Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie) to whom he can throw. Joseph Addai enjoyed a mild career resurgence after injury problems, and Donald Brown offers some additional help at running back. Even with Freeney’s injury, the Indy defense is underrated and has the ability to somewhat hold the Saints in check.
The pick: Colts 34, Saints 30. Manning and Brees will both put on a show, but Manning will get his team into the end zone one more time, which will prove the difference.

I almost did it. I tried to watch a whole Pro Bowl. Alas, I got through one quarter before boredom set in.

Make no mistake, I think moving the Pro Bowl to this weekend is an infinitely better plan than playing it after the Super Bowl. And stateside (at least continental stateside), the game drew it’s biggest crowd in 50 years.

But it’s still the Pro Bowl. That means no hitting, minimal blocking, little defense. Until tonight, I didn’t know all the rules in place for the game: four-receiver sets, blitzing, 3-4 defenses, and nickel and dime packages aren’t allowed (neither is the wildcat). It makes sense, because who has time this week to devise elaborate schemes with new teammates. The Pro Bowl is a pickup game, much like the NBA’s All-Star Game (no defense) and the NHL’s (no checking). But for some reason, the Pro Bowl then loses its entertainment value. Andre Johnson was soooooo wide open for his first touchdown, it was obvious the defense didn’t try too much to cover him.

Having the quarterbacks miked, followed by Ron Jaworski saying what play was coming, was cool. I was half-thinking you’d hear the QB say, “You do a button hook, and you go long.”

There’s always next year — maybe I’ll make it to halftime.

Super Bowl XLIV will feature the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. Six weeks ago, everyone was looking at this potential matchup as a battle of unbeatens. Of course, over the last three weeks of the regular season, that hope was dashed, but I believe this truly will be a game featuring the two best teams in the NFL. Say what you want about the Saints’ performance against the Vikings — they didn’t succumb to the pressure and won the game against the third-best team in the league. New Orleans deserves to be in the Super Bowl.

The focus so far, understandably so, is on the two quarterbacks: Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Sure, we’ll get some stories on Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney and Darren Sharper, and a few on coaches Jim Caldwell and Sean Payton, but for the next 10 days, it will be the Manning and Brees show. When was the last time the top two quarterbacks of a season played each other in the Super Bowl? (Super Bowl XXIV comes to mind, and we know how that turned out for the Broncos …) We should be in for an entertaining game.

Vikings fans are outraged. Packers fans are vindicated. And the Saints are in the playoffs. All of this, thanks to Brett Favre’s late interception Sunday in the NFC championship.

Minnesota fans need to get a grip — they knew all season Favre imploding in some way was a possibility. Amazingly, it took all season (he only had one bad game in the regular season), but his interception was classic Favre: He tried to make something happen when something wasn’t there. But he’s the reason the Vikings were in the NFC championship to begin with. He was the reason they were still in the game, too, when his teammates were fumbling and fumbling (seriously, without turnovers, the Vikings win 42-21).

Green Bay fans are gloating, but I hope many look beyond the ending and appreciate how impressive Favre’s season really was. Think of great sports stars of the past trying for one more season of glory — and how many fell flat. Will anyone remember Willie Mays’ last season? Or Michael Jordan’s? I was surprised to recently find out Babe Ruth ended his career with the Braves. Favre’s last season (if he indeed does quit) is going to be looked upon with awe, that a 40-year-old still led his team to so many victories.

Yes, I had been predicting Favre would fall apart all season, but it never happened. He messed up by throwing that interception, without a doubt — and I somehow knew that would happen. But it still was a gutsy performance. He looked so beat up after the game at his press conference, where he theorized he might have broken his ankle. But he never came out, even at one point trying to pounce on Percy Harvin’s fumble. That should be how Favre’s last season should be remembered: He gave everything he had, just like he did his whole career. He won that way, and he lost that way.

Ready for the second-best Sunday of the NFL season (OK, maybe third after the opening Sunday — at least for fantasy football players)? Four teams remain, but only two will be playing in the Super Bowl.

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS
Why the Vikings will win: Brett Favre is defying age, logic and interceptions and has the Minnesota offense rolling. But it’s really the Vikings’ defense that has got them this far, especially after crushing the Cowboys last season. The defense won’t fear the Saints’ high-powered offense like most other teams do.
Why the Saints will win: Five years after Hurricane Katrina, the winning Saints are the feel-good story of the NFL season. The Saints are definitely inspired (and are great at home, whereas the Vikings aren’t the best road team), but they have the talent to back up the inspiration. Drew Brees can hurt opponents in many different ways through a variety of receivers. On defense, the Saints did stop the Cardinals last week and could slow Favre just enough to win the game.
The pick: Saints 31, Vikings 17. Both teams looked good last week, but it can be argued the Cowboys allowed the Vikings to look that good. The Saints will use the Superdome to their advantage, and the somewhat banged-up Minnesota defense will falter just a little, but enough to send New Orleans to its first Super Bowl.

N.Y. JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Why the Jets will win: Nobody expected the Jets to get this far, but here they are: one game away from the Super Bowl. Their defense, led by Darelle Revis, was key to getting them to this stage and could slow down the Colts. The Jets’ victory over Indy last month propelled them into the playoffs, and that confidence might carry over in the rematch.
Why the Colts will win: Indianapolis’ offensive prowess is unquestioned, but the Colts’ defense might be key. The Jets didn’t move the ball that well last week (mostly capitalizing on turnovers to get points), and Indy’s D is better than San Diego’s. The Colts not only possess the playoff experience to advance, but also might be seeking some revenge after last month’s loss spoiled their unbeaten season.
The pick: Colts 24, Jets 10. It won’t be a blowout, but the Colts will score enough points to beat a Jets team I don’t see moving the ball that easily. Peyton Manning won’t make the mistakes the Chargers made last week and will return to the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills hired Chan Gailey this week as their new coach, and I must admit, I’m not so sure it’s their best move.

The Bills were clearly looking for someone to boost their offense, and yes, Gailey didn’t fare so badly as the Cowboys’ coach a decade ago. But I wonder if a more experienced head coach or an up-and-coming coordinator was needed to restart the fire that has burned out on the team. Gailey just seems better suited as an offensive coordinator — Buffalo’s issues seem to run deeper than an inability to score points.

Oh, one other thing — can someone hire Leslie Frazier? My ‘86 Bears bias might be showing, but can you argue with what Frazier has done with the Vikings’ defense?

Four more playoff games in the books, and of the four losers, were any more disappointing than the Chargers? Yes, the Cowboys and Saints looked bad, but they weren’t really favored. The Chargers had won 11 straight, but lost to a team that really didn’t play better than them. Not taking anything away from the Jets, but San Diego is a better team that simply was flat at the worst possible time.

The Colts must be happy that they will miss the Chargers in the AFC championship. Again, nothing against the Jets, but let’s face it — Indy wins that game last month if it doesn’t pull its starters.

Oh, Vikings-Saints this weekend should be quite entertaining. I retract all my gloom-and-doom predictions about Brett Favre — some of his passes were vintage against the Cowboys. The Saints better score early Sunday and not let the Minnesota defense get too much confidence. The Cowboys were moving the ball against the Vikes in the first half, but fumbled away every chance they had and never recovered. If that happens to the Saints, Favre will be returning to the Super Bowl.

Four more games this weekend, and hopefully I’ll fare better than 1-3 …

DALLAS AT MINNESOTA
Why the Cowboys will win: Over the past four weeks, there has not been a better team in the NFL than Dallas. The Cowboys have momentum after two consecutive victories over the Eagles, and know they can defeat an elite team after knocking off the Saints last month. They might not run the ball that effectively against the Vikings’ impressive front line, but Tony Romo has been impressive enough in the passing game that they might not need that running game as much.
Why the Vikings will win: Minnesota needed a week off after a rough December, but lucked out after the Eagles lost in Week 17. The Vikings’ defense can slow down the Cowboys, and Brett Favre has the experience to guide his young offense in the postseason.
The pick: Cowboys 31, Vikings 30. This might be the weekend’s most entertaining game, but I think right now, the Cowboys are a better team than the Vikes. Plus, Favre has a glorious history of playoff implosions — this year’s won’t wait until next week.

ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS
Why the Cardinals will win: Arizona has the firepower to keep up with New Orleans’ offense. If this is indeed Kurt Warner’s final season, he’s going to give it everything he has, much like he did last week vs. the Packers. The Arizona defense, despite stinking for most of last week’s game, got a big lift by forcing the game-winning turnover and could ride that momentum against the Saints.
Why the Saints will win: New Orleans also needed that week off and should be fresh for the Cardinals. The Saints have the best offense in the league and will be smelling blood against an Arizona defense that gave up touchdown after touchdown to the Packers last week.
The pick: Saints 38, Cardinals 27: These offenses are both prolific, but at home, the Saints’ defense should do better stopping the Cardinals than the Packers last week. If Drew Brees gets rolling, New Orleans may score more than 38.

BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS
Why the Ravens will win: Their running game is dominating, their defense is as good as ever, and they are coming off a big victory over the Patriots. If all that comes together again, Baltimore could come up with another upset.
Why the Colts will win: Simply, they are the best team in the league. They have this quarterback, maybe you’ve heard of him, Peyton Manning, who is coming off another monster season. The Colts also have the defense that could stop the Ravens’ run game.
The pick: Colts 27, Ravens 13: Baltimore’s magic ends in Indianapolis, as long as the Colts don’t look ahead to the Chargers. They won’t.

N.Y. JETS AT SAN DIEGO
Why the Jets will win: In the midst of a Cinderella winter, the Jets are confident after upending the Bengals last week. The New York defense was key in that victory, and if it can repeat that performance, the Jets might have a chance at another upset.
Why the Chargers will win: San Diego might have been the least regarded of the four teams who earned first-round byes, but don’t be deceived — the Chargers have the talent to make the Super Bowl. Philip Rivers has finally emerged as a top-tier NFL quarterback, and though LaDainian Tomlinson’s numbers were down in 2009, he still knows what it takes to win.
The pick: Chargers 24, Jets 10. The Jets might slow down San Diego, but their offense won’t put up enough points to win on the road.

After watching four playoff games over the weekend — three of which, quite honestly, sort of duds — I discovered that I had no opinions of the first round (deciding three games were duds notwithstanding). Yes, there were two big upsets, but the first weekend seemed unimportant in the grand scheme: I’m betting the four teams with byes are the four teams that get out of this weekend.

One bit of news did inspire me to write, however — Seattle hiring USC coach Pete Carroll. It’s a great move for Carroll, whose Trojans aren’t surprising anyone in the Pac-10 anymore and could be facing some NCAA sanctions. But why would the Seahawks turn to a coach who already has been unsuccessful in the NFL, after years of other college coaches stinking up their stints in the NFL.

The list of college coaches who failed is long and distinguished: Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino, Steve Spurrier, Dennis Erickson (twice), Rich Brooks, Butch Davis, Lou Holtz. Barry Switzer was handed a Super Bowl team when he took over the Cowboys, so he doesn’t count. That leaves Jimmy Johnson and Bill Walsh.

Don’t expect Carroll to fare much better this time through the NFL. He inherits a bad Seattle team in what could become a tough division if the 49ers take the next step. He’ll last three years, going 6-10, 8-8 and 5-11, either getting fired or jumping back to the college ranks (a la Saban) when some big East Coast or Midwest program has an unexpected opening (how about Carroll at Penn State after Joe Paterno retires?). In the meantime, Seahawks fans will be waiting for their team to return to the playoffs.