2008 June - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for June, 2008

Rookie rights

So Roger Goodell isn’t happy about the money top NFL rookies are receiving? With all due respect, it’s not his place to whine.

The big rookie contracts are what the market is commanding, and what owners are willing to pay to secure their next star, both before training camp and for the long-term. And though it’s is frustrating when a rookie gets big money and doesn’t live up to his potential, it’s the risk the teams are willing to take.

Should rookie salaries be overhauled? Sure — wouldn’t a system like the NBA’s great? Guaranteed salaries on a established scale for the first few years, no haggling, no holdouts, no renegotiations. After four years, the players are free agents. I doubt the union would go for it, as the Jake Longs of the world would be earning less right away, and owners might not like the prospect of losing players to free agency so quickly, even if they had first shot at re-signing them. But damn, it would simplify things. Seriously, do you remember the last rookie holdout in the NBA?

Posted on 30th June 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Dallas

Moving into the NFC East, I’ll start with perhaps the most loaded fantasy team in the NFC: the Cowboys. They are a little thin at receiver, which conceivably might affect Terrell Owens’ number if he’s keyed in too much. But I doubt Dallas will let it come to that, setting up another big season for T.O.

QUARTERBACK: What can you say about Tony Romo, other than after Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, he’s the top fantasy QB in the league. He might get drafted as high as the late second round in some leagues, and expect another year of 30-plus TDs.

RUNNING BACKS: Marion Barber III turned in another big touchdown year with 10, and rushed for a career-high 975 yards. Though Julius Jones is gone from the Dallas backfield, expect another RB platoon, this time with rookie Felix Jones. Until he can amass more yards, Barber is still no better than an lower-end RB1, but if this is his breakout yardage year, he could become one of the top five running backs in the league. My hunch is he will put up numbers similar to 2007, as the new Jones will assume the same role the old Jones did. Felix is probably an RB4, and a good handcuff for Barber if he doesn’t cannibalize too many TDs.

WIDE RECEIVERS: If not for Randy Moss, Owens would be the top fantasy WR going into 2008. Barring injury or ego episode, he’ll continue the success shared with Romo and put up gaudy WR1 numbers again. Patrick Crayton had a decent season in 2007, but can he remain a good complement to T.O.? If you think he will, he’s a WR3; if not, he’s a solid WR4. I’m not sure how to rate Terry Glenn if he returns to the Boys — I think Crayton is firmly entrenched as Dallas second receiver, meaning Glenn is no better than a fantasy WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Part of the reason Dallas can be a little thin at WR is Jason Witten, who some might argue is the best tight end in the league after Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. He’s a no-brainer TE1, and though he might not get 96 receptions again, he’ll put up great numbers nonetheless.

KICKER: Another reason you shouldn’t stress out over kickers: Nick Folk came out of nowhere to be one of the top Ks in the league, scoring 131 points and going 14-for-14 on FGs from 30 to 49 yards. With Dallas’ potent offense, he’ll be a top-five kicker on draft day.

Posted on 29th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 3 Comments »

Mr. Jones and me

Running back Kevin Jones and his surgically repaired knee worked out for some teams Saturday, and it looks like his rehab is ahead of schedule.

Maybe this is just the fantasy player in me, but some of the teams checking Jones out I just don’t understand. Pittsburgh just drafted Rashard Mendenhall and cut Najeh Davenport. The Packers must have little faith in DeShawn Wynn and Brandon Jackson and Ryan Grant’s backup. Miami might believe Ronnie Brown is destined for another injury.

So the only team that made sense was the one that cut him: Detroit. The Lions had no running game when he wasn’t in the lineup last year. Bringing him back takes some of the pressure off rookie Kevin Smith, and off the passing game, too.

One sobering reality from the article: The free agent running backs available, including Shaun Alexander, Ron Dayne and Cedric Benson. Maybe teams can be a little picky as they look for RB help.

Posted on 29th June 2008
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Fantasy preview: Detroit

Which Lions team will show up in 2008 — the one that started last season 6-2, or the one that finished 1-7? And will the offense put up gaudy numbers without Mike Martz?

QUARTERBACK: Jon Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2007, though he did toss 20 interceptions. Despite the big yards, he’s still no more than a QB2 in my book. Maybe I’m being too harsh, but I don’t trust Kitna to deliver consistent QB1 numbers week after week.

RUNNING BACKS: Kevin Jones is gone, Tatum Bell is always a question mark, and Kevin Smith is a rookie. The Lions only rushed for 1,288 yards all season, less than Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson did in 14 games. Smith is penciled in as the starter, he’s a risky choice as an RB3 given this offense’s history. Still, he’s a worthwhile sleeper if you are confident with your top two running backs. Bell is a late-draft RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Detroit’s receiver corps is an embarrassment of riches, yet with no WR1s. Roy Williams seemed headed into that realm last year (especially after his 204-yard game in Week 3), then his numbers faltered, then he missed the last month of the season. He’s the team’s best receiver, but I’d be nervous with taking higher than a low-end WR2. Shaun McDonald and Calvin Johnson are solid WR3s, and Mike Furrey is a decent pick as a WR4. All four are solid draft-day picks, just not as your stud receiver.

TIGHT ENDS: I saw this stat somewhere: Detroit tight ends were thrown to 39 times in 2007. Tony Gonzalez probably sees more passes in three games. The only draft-day option is Dan Campbell, who is no more than a TE3.

KICKER: Yes, Jason Hanson is still kicking for the Lions. Though not a top-flight kicker, he’s a solid bye-week option.

Posted on 27th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

What’s in a game?

I was at a video game store today, and there was a pre-order display for Madden ‘09. Unless EA changes the cover art, there will be no Madden Jinx this year, unlike past seasons where whoever graced the cover met misfortune (Marshall Faulk and Michael Vick come to mind).

That won’t happen in 2009, because Brett Favre is featured on the cover.

But who knows, if Favre does return as so many rumors predict, he still might get injured, or finally show his age. Maybe this will be incentive to stay retired: to simply break the jinx.

For EA’s college football game, the USC Trojan mascot is featured. He better be careful.

Posted on 27th June 2008
Under: Bye weeks | 1 Comment »

Fantasy preview: Minnesota

Last year, the Vikings featured the biggest fantasy season by a rookie since, well, possibly ever. Can Adrian Peterson turn in another incredible year, or was 2007 a fluke?

QUARTERBACK: Tavaris Jackson is back at the helm for the Vikings, after establishing himself as a very average QB in 12 games last year. With Minnesota’s running game, Jackson simply needs to be above average. Even with the addition of Bernard Berrian, I don’t think this will be Jackson’s breakout season, so choose him as a solid QB3, possibly a low-end QB2.

RUNNING BACKS: If Adrian Peterson stays healthy, expect another monster season, with 1,500 yards if he plays all 16 games and 15 TDs. He’s the second-best running back in the draft, behind LaDainian Tomlinson. Chester Taylor is trickier to gauge — will he still put up decent numbers as Peterson’s complement? He’s a great handcuff for Peterson, maybe too good if he cannibalizes a few TDs. Otherwise, he’s an RB3 or RB4, with the knowledge he could become a Peterson’s backup instead of complement in 2008.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The addition of Berrian will help Minnesota’s passing game. Expect similar numbers to what he put up in Chicago, meaning he’s a low-end WR2 or a very solid WR3. Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade are late-round WR5s at best.

TIGHT ENDS: Visanthe Shiancoe and Jim Kleinsasser will not produce much on the fantasy end, not with the Vikes’ running game and the bolstering of the WRs. They are no better than TE3s, meaning they are backup fantasy tight ends’ backups.

Posted on 26th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Chicago

Continuing through the NFC North, we come to a team that reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago and might reach fantasy hell in 2008. Unless what would be known as the “Rex Grossman Miracle” occurs, it’s going to be a long year in Chicago.

QUARTERBACK: Rex Grossman is still the Bears’ starting QB, but unlike last year, he has less talented receivers to throw to. Grossman is not a sleeper QB2 — at best, he’s a fantasy QB3. Maybe he’ll come around and surprise everybody, but don’t take that risk on draft day. Don’t count on Kyle Orton to show much if Grossman is benched or injured.

RUNNING BACKS: With Cedric Benson and his alcohol issues waived, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are the next fantasy options at RB. Peterson is not worth drafting, but Forte might be a nice sleeper as your third running back, provided you aren’t taking risks with your first two. Someone has to provide some offense for this team, and the rookie might be the man.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Without Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad, now playing for Minnesota and Carolina, respectively, what’s left? Marty Booker returns after a stint in Miami, but he’s barely a WR4. Devin Hester might translate some of his return skills to the passing game, but not enough to take him higher than a flyer as a WR4/WR5. Avoid the Lloyd — Brandon Lloyd.

TIGHT ENDS: With the lack of talent at WR, Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen might be poised for decent seasons. Olsen is an up-and-coming tight end and Clark is a veteran, though neither should be more than a TE2 (particularly if they are sharing the position’s receptions). I like the upside on Olsen, but not enough to make him a starting fantasy tight end just yet.

KICKER: Robbie Gould is accurate and still managed 126 points last year despite the Bears’ anemic offense. I don’t know if he’ll reach that total, 110 is more likely, making him about a top-15 kicker.

Posted on 25th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy outlook: Green Bay

This is the first of 32 team previews I’m planning for the upcoming fantasy season. I’m only going to focus on skill players (no D/STs, and I may even gloss over kickers on some teams). What will follow will be my opinions and predictions of the fantasy values for each team. I’ll start with the Packers, who might have the biggest question mark at quarterback of any team in the league.

Green Bay may have been the biggest surprise in the NFL in 2007. But 2008 is a mystery, thanks to the retirement of Brett Favre. Can the Pack come close to their success of last season, when they came within an overtime of the Super Bowl? Or is it back to under .500? And are all those impressive fantasy numbers set for a nose-dive?

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers is stepping into Favre’s big shoes, and I’ll be honest, I have no clue how he will perform. Will he deliver numbers similar to Favre’s, or will we see rookie numbers, even though it’s Rodgers fourth year as a pro? He may be a fantasy sleeper QB2 to start the season, but if he does step up, and stays healthy, expect Rodgers to be the fantasy surprise of the year.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Grant came on midseason and became a legitimate fantasy star, out of nowhere. The Packers are going to need him as Rodgers acclimates to being the starter, so expect RB1 numbers from him. Brandon Jackson could turn into a late-, late-round RB5 sleeper and decent insurance for Grant, particularly if 2007 was a fluke.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones were a fantastic trio for Favre last year, with Driver getting the yards, Jennings the TDs and Jones as a third option. Their success hinges on Rodgers’ success, so draft them with caution. I’m seeing Driver slipping in many rankings, I see just the opposite — Rodgers will need to rely on the veteran. And Jennings will only get better, again depending on their new quarterback. Both are solid WR2s, Jones is a low-end WR3.

TIGHT ENDS: Donald Lee put up the best numbers of his career last year and should continue to be an integral part of the Packers’ offense. He’s TE1, but with tight ends so deep this year, a lower-tier TE1.

KICKER: Another Packer whose success hinges on the QB transition is Mason Crosby. The Packers likely won’t get into the end zone as much, decreasing his points, but perhaps will see more field goals come his way. He’s a top-10 kicker, but be ready to grab someone else if the Packers sputter.

Posted on 24th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Color commentary

After writing about Adam Jones yesterday and how he wants to drop the Pacman nickname, I’m writing about him again today. But not because Jones did anything wrong today, but because of radio host Don Imus, who asked what color Jones was.

I’m not going to rant about the idiocy of Imus or his clarification of his question, but to lament that these assumptions still exist. It bothers when NFL fans cheer for players of an opposite race, then buy into the stereotypes when one runs afoul of the law, or simply doesn’t play up to expectations. Sports in the United States has come a long way over the past 60 years, but there’s still a little way to go.

Too bad Imus wasn’t asking about the real Pac-Man. The reply could have been “You know Pac-Man is yellow, Inky is blue, Blinky is beige, Pinky is pink and Clyde is Red. Ms. Pac-Man wears a bow.” That would have been a less ridiculous conversation than the actual one.

Posted on 24th June 2008
Under: Bye weeks | 1 Comment »

What’s in a name?

Pacman Jones doesn’t want the moniker anymore. He’s asking that people call him Adam.

Jones is trying to restart his career in Dallas, and perhaps he hopes if he loses the nickname, people will forget everything he’s done over the past few years. He wants a fresh start, not unlike Joey Belle switching to Albert Belle or the WWF becoming the WWE (um, bad example).

Maybe Adam will turn his career and his life around in Dallas. Until he does, it’s going to be tough to shake “Pacman.” And if he screws up again, he may get another nickname from a video game: Doom.

Posted on 23rd June 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »