In the few days since Bill Belichick elected to go for it on fourth down, and subsequently watched his Patriots fall to the Colts, I have come to this conclusion: He was afraid of giving the ball back to Peyton Manning.

How else would you explain the move? If you thought you had a better chance getting one yard than Manning driving 70, you might take that risk. Missing the first down shaved 40 yards off Manning’s drive, but if you were convinced it wouldn’t matter, you might take the risk.

There’s a train of thought that if you can’t get one yard with the game on the line, you don’t deserve to win the football game. Tom Brady and the Patriots just barely mis-executed that play. Had they got it, I’d be leading this week’s redux with Maurice Jones-Drew.

– Before getting to MJD, that Patriots-Colts game might go down as the best since NBC took over the Sunday night game.

– ESPN.com says 10,000 of its fantasy owners lost because Jones-Drew stopped short of a touchdown to run out the clock before a field goal that gave the Jaguars a victory over the Jets. Among those owners: Jones-Drew himself.

I was not one of those 10,000 owners — I lost in a CBS league because of his decision. It’s simply a reminder not to take fantasy football too seriously — no matter how well you prepare, something like this that you can never prepare for can mess you up.

One final thing — should NFL players even be allowed to participate in fantasy football leagues? Just saying …

– Dick Jauron is now the Bills’ ex-coach. What took so long?

– Tom Cable is still coaching the Raiders. What’s taking so long?

– The Titans were six games too late figuring out how to win in 2009, but this resurgence may save Jeff Fisher’s job. Still, that bad start means they will be lucky to finish 8-8.

– Finally, are Denver fans getting nervous? Another quick start, and once again, a slide that allowed the Chargers to achieve a first-place tie. At least this year, the Broncos have time to turn things around. However, I’m guessing they won’t finish better than 9-7.

OK, I’ll admit it, I think the Broncos are legitimate after they rallied to defeat the Patriots on Sunday. No luck was involved in the victory, unlike in Week 1 against the Bengals; and they didn’t need a fortunate defensive stand, like they did against the Cowboys in Week 4.

But can it last? The Broncos have a history of good starts that eventually imploded (albeit, with another coach). If they can hold off the Chargers, they will win the division, but I just don’t see the Broncos as a team that can win playoff games against AFC teams that, frankly, are more battle-tested. Their next big test, perhaps bigger than against the Patriots, will be Monday night against the Chargers.

– The 49ers failed miserably against the Falcons, but Mike Singletary’s influence is still obvious. Dre’ Bly loses a fumble on an interception showboating, then apologizes to his team like no other player has apologized to his team before. The culture is changed — would Bly have been as contrite pre-Singletary? The Niners are like the Broncos — good enough to win the division, but not quite a viable playoff contender. But look out in 2010, when Singletary’s approach has really set in.

– The Chiefs’ throwback Dallas Texans helmets were cool. The Broncos’ brown and yellow uniforms, not so much.

– Was last year just an aberration for the Titans? They were so resigned to their losing Sunday they brought Vince Young in. Everything that seemed to work so well last year — the defense, the running game — isn’t this season, and there seems to be no relief in sight. I wonder, if the Titans had won Week 1 against the Steelers if they would have had more confidence over the last few weeks.

– Finally, with so many teams in disarray, the Bills might be in the most trouble. How do you lose to the Browns 6-3? I admire Terrell Owens’ restraint, but something amazing must be imminent from his mouth. And for once, he might be justified in complaining.

The Patriots unleashed an impressive comeback Monday night to beat the Bills, but let’s face it: They were lucky to win. That said, and after Pittsburgh looked impressive from the fourth quarter on (Hines Ward’s fumble notwithstanding) against Tennessee, I moved the Steelers to No. 1 this week. The Seahawks made the week’s biggest jump, from No. 20 to No. 15, while the Panthers dropped eight to No. 22 after their turnover-filled loss to the Eagles. And oh, there’s a new No. 32 — the Rams officially look like the worst team in the NFL.

1. Steelers
2. Patriots
3. Giants
4. Chargers
5. Colts
6. Ravens
7. Titans
8. Eagles
9. Falcons
10. Saints
11. Cowboys
12. Vikings
13. Packers
14. Cardinals
15. Seahawks
16. Bears
17. Jets
18. Dolphins
19. Texans
20. Redskins
21. 49ers
22. Panthers
23. Broncos
24. Bills
25. Buccaneers
26. Jaguars
27. Bengals
28. Raiders
29. Chiefs
30. Lions
31. Browns
32. Rams

Forget about Thursday night’s game — tomorrow, Sunday, Sept. 13 is the real start of the season. The first day with more than one game, the first Sunday night matchup, the first pregame ESPN/CBS/Fox/NFL Network extravaganzas, the first burst of in-season fantasy madness, the first constant flipping to NFL Network’s running stat board during the early games (damn, I hope they brought that back last year), and the first day working your schedule around the NFL instead of the other way around. Don’t forget to make your weekly picks, update your fantasy teams, and have plenty of snack foods on hand. And enjoy Week 1, because if every season seems to hold true, it will be Week 17 before we know it.

It’s September. All my fantasy preparation, and most of my drafts, are complete. NFL rosters have been reduced. Preseason news is winding down. Exhibition games are thankfully over.

The NFL season starts Thursday.

And though the opening Thursday game is just a tease for Sunday of Week 1, that first game seems like blessed relief after months of anticipation. Make no mistake — preparing for the regular season, at least from the fantasy side, is fun. But with just a few days left, I’m ready for that first game.

So bring on 2009, a season that will feature Brett Favre, Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford. A season in which the Steelers will try to repeat, the Cardinals will try to prove 2008 wasn’t a fluke, and the Patriots will try to return to the playoffs. A season in which Jay Cutler is in Chicago, Terrell Owens is in Buffalo, Tony Gonzalez is in Atlanta and Donte Stallworth is nowhere near an NFL stadium. A season in which Brandon Marshall might sulk, Brian Westbrook might not stay healthy and Tom Brady might return to MVP form. A season that might see the Steelers, Patriots, Chargers, Eagles, Bears or Giants win the Super Bowl.

In other words, a season to be enjoyed, just like every other year. Bring it on.

The Chiefs suffered through a miserable season last year but managed some good fantasy numbers from Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is gone, but Kansas City’s fantasy potential got a boost by the addition of Matt Cassel.

Quarterbacks: Cassel filled in admirably for Tom Brady in New England last year, finishing with 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns. He’s a trendy sleeper QB1, but remember, he won’t have quite the talent with the Chiefs that he enjoyed with the Patriots, cementing him as a solid QB2.

Running backs: Injuries have hampered Larry Johnson the past two seasons, but healthy, I believe he can be a value pick after the first several waves of running backs are taken. I’d risk him as an RB3 and hope for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, but I’d also make sure I was confident in my RB1, RB2 and RB4. Jamaal Charles backs him up again, and he has upside simply because of Johnson’s injury history. You don’t handcuff RB3s, but Charles on his own is a worthy RB5 in deeper leagues.

Wide receivers: Bowe unleashed WR1 numbers last season and could do even better with a better quarterback in Cassel. Expect even better stats that make Bowe a solid WR1. Veterans Mark Bradley and Mark Engram are the Chiefs’ other receiver options; neither is more than a WR5, but in PPR league, Engram’s history as a reception machine (94 in 2007) gives him a little upside.

Tight ends: Brad Cottam is no Gonzalez. Neither is rookie Sean Ryan. One might emerge as a serviceable tight end as the season progresses, but neither is draftable.

Kicker: Rookie Ryan Succop has the inside track over Connor Barth to win the Chiefs kicking job, but even if he wins it, he’s not more than a lower-tier K2 in big leagues requiring two kickers on each roster.

The Bills took a chance by adding receiver Terrell Owens, who instantly will help the team’s passing game. If he keeps his ego in check, the Bills might be actually dangerous on offense.

Quarterback: Trent Edwards’ numbers should improve simply because of Owens’ presence. He’s not a starting fantasy quarterback, but he has potential as a QB2 on draft day.

Running backs: Marshawn Lynch played 13 games each of the last two seasons, and it’s guaranteed he won’t play more than 13 this year because he will serve a three-game NFL-imposed suspension to start the season. If he stays healthy, he could put up RB1 numbers over the final 13 games, but he’s an RB2 on draft day — and make sure you either get a good RB3 to play in September or take Fred Jackson, who on his own is a sleeper RB4 if Lynch does miss time later in the fall due to injury.

Wide receivers: Edwards is no Tony Romo, but Owens still should excel in Buffalo. T.O. might not be a WR1 on draft day, but he’s a solid WR2 — ego and age aside, he’s still a great receiver. Lee Evans’ numbers have slipped since his breakout 2006 campaign, primarily because the Bills had little other receiving talent. That should change with Owens lining up on the other side, perhaps vaulting Evans into WR2 territory, but more realistically, a solid WR3 on draft day.

Tight ends: Rookie Shawn Nelson takes over for Robert Royal, but it won’t be much of an fantasy improvement. Bottom line: Nelson is a free-agent pickup if Edwards suddenly starts ignoring his wide receivers.

Kicker: Rian Lindell scored 124 points last season as the Bills’ offense improved. He might score that much again this year, but remember, he kicks in Buffalo, a place that makes Green Bay’s winter seem tranquil. That said, he’s a solid K2.

The Panthers demonstrated last season that a running back-by-committee can not only work for fantasy owners, but produce crazy stats. But can they repeat the RBBC success in 2009?

Quarterback: As the Panthers shifted from a passing team to a running team, Jake Delhomme saw his numbers suffer even though he was healthy all season. Though he still has Steve Smith to throw to, consider Delhomme as nothing more than a QB2 this season.

Running backs: DeAngelo Williams lived up to his potential (finally) and Jonathan Stewart scored 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. They enter 2009 as an RB1 and low-end RB2 on draft day, but I don’t think Williams will enjoy the same success as last season. He’ll top 1,000 yards and score 10 touchdowns — clearly RB1 territory — but won’t repeat 1,515 and 18. In the meantime, Stewart’s numbers will increase, but not quite enough to risk him as your top running back. After all, this is a RBBC; proceed with caution.

Wide receivers: Smith is still a WR1 and Delhomme’s favorite target, and he will continue to benefit from the successful running game. However, the days of Smith being one of the top three WRs in the league are over. Muhsin Muhammad returned to Carolina put up respectable numbers; think of him as an low-end WR4 for 2009.

Tight ends: Jeff King highlights a TEBC (tight end-by-committee), and he caught only 21 passes and one touchdown. That’s barely TE3 territory, meaning you can avoid Carolina tight ends on draft day.

Kicker: John Kasay scored 130 points thanks to Carolina’s successful offense, and though he may not have the booming leg of his youth, he’ll still produce points on this team. Consider him a low-end K1.

It’s another slow period for NFL news — nothing is new on the Brandon Marshall front (gee, after Jay Cutler left Denver, did you think Marshall would be far behind?); LeRoi Glover retired today; and I still hope Brett Favre doesn’t return. But an annual rite of June has occurred: The first slew of fantasy football magazines are on sale.

I already have three (and I’ll be reviewing them soon), but it’s tough to achieve any meaningful research from them this early, partly we’re a month away from training camp, and partly because it’s such a rush that these first ones came out that I can’t stay focused on one section at a time. The latter quandary will pass, but in the meantime, I’m looking forward to the next batch of magazines to be published. Happy reading!

I’m somewhat sticking to my moratorium on not blogging on Brett Favre, and have resisted through the latest rumors and reports that he had shoulder surgery and that the Vikings might be backing off. But this was too silly not skip: Favre’s family reportedly has booked up to 30 rooms at a Green Bay hotel for the weekend the Packers host the Vikes.

This story was first reported by a Green Bay newspaper, just reconfirming how obsessed Wisconsin still is over Brett Favre. And the fact these rooms were reportedly booked two months ago leads me to believe Favre had this in mind all along, since February when he “retired” again. I say it again: Brett, retire, just let it go.