2007 July - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for July, 2007

Gore’s inconvenient truth

It was bound to happen — there’s a significant fantasy injury less than a week into training camp.

San Francisco running back Frank Gore broke a bone in his right hand Monday. He might not play in the preseason, though he will practice with a cast and is expected to be ready for the regular season.

The injury itself isn’t so significant as the player who suffered it — Gore is a top-five running back. His draft stock drops a little, not much in my opinion, but behind Rudi Johnson and Shaun Alexander as the No. 6 RB on the board. My drop reflects that he might be little rusty the first few weeks, plus who knows how well he’ll be holding the ball those opening games (a concern especially if you are in a league that penalizes for fumbles). He should still be the 49ers’ workhorse and probably will be back to form come October. If his hand heals quicker than expected, I’ll move him back past Johnson and Alexander. As with many preseason injuries, his progress in the coming weeks will affect his draft position.

Posted on 31st July 2007
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West Coast loss

Flash back to January 1989. Super Bowl XXIII. Memorable for “The Drive” and the first Bud Bowl. Also memorable for victorious coach Bill Walsh being asked in the locker room if it was his last game with the 49ers, and Walsh trying to compose himself enough to answer the question. It was his last game as San Francisco’s coach, after three Super Bowl victories and an offense that changed the game.

Walsh died Monday of leukemia at the age of 75. His legacy not only will rest in those three Super Bowls, but also the West Coast offense. His strategies turned Joe Montana and Jerry Rice into stars during his tenure, as well as influenced the stardom of other quarterbacks after he left coaching. Steve Young became a Hall of Famer for his West Coast offense prowess after Walsh stepped down. Green Bay’s Brett Favre learned under coach Mike Holmgren, who learned under Walsh. The number of successful Walsh assistants is even more impressive considering how many of their assistants have become successful. In only 10 years of coaching in the NFL, Walsh became a Hall of Famer.

Think about how much the game, specifically offensive strategy, has changed since Walsh led Montana and Co. to their first Super Bowl win 26 years ago. I bet there’s a generation of football fans, myself included for the most part, that just assumed a short passing game has always been part of standard modus operandi for the NFL. “The Drive” perhaps best exemplified that, with a a methodical, yet quick, march down the field, rather than a big play that 10 years earlier a team might have thought it needed to come from behind to win.

The Genius will be missed, but never forgotten.

Posted on 31st July 2007
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Back to school

Vacation is over, not just the NFL’s, but mine as well. It’s almost August. Time to get serious about fantasy football. Really serious.

After weeks of random perusing of fantasy magazines and Web sites, a sudden realization hits (I’m sure for others, too, not just me) — the drafts are coming, soon, and there’s only a finite time to prepare between now and then. I’m not saying every waking moment of August needs to be spent on fantasy football, but you don’t want to cram, either. All-nght study sessions are meant for the school year, not August.

The fantasy content here is going to reach overdrive soon, too. I should have my rankings posted within a couple weeks and will be offering my thoughts on key fantasy developments as the preseason proceeds. I’ll be studying myself, too — the last thing I want is to be blogging fantasy advice, then take last in four leagues.

The fun begins.

Posted on 28th July 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

A knee-to-know basis

Training camps have begun. So have the quizzical comments.

Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb participated in his first practice of training camp Saturday and says his knee is about 75 percent but that will be enough to be “one of the best quarterbacks in the league.”

For Philly fans, this comment must be a little scary. Even if he’s being honest, it’s still a possible sign that perhaps McNabb won’t be the QB he was during last season’s blistering start. Forget about Jeff Garcia’s backup success last year — this team needs McNabb. And any admission that he’s not up the speed yet, even if he brushes it off and says he’ll be fine, is somewhat disconcerting, particularly since he said he was 70-75 percent six weeks ago.

At least his honesty preventing doubts that would have arisen if he had said he was 100 percent. So we’re just left with a lower level of incredulity. Monitor McNabb over the coming weeks. Surely the Eagles won’t push him too much just yet. Healthy, he’s a top-10 fantasy QB. If questions about his knee persist, he’s risky as a QB1, but possibly worth the risk. Don’t handcuff A.J. Feely to him, but get a good QB2 instead as insurance if you take the chance on McNabb. The payoff might be worth it.

Posted on 28th July 2007
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Feeling campy

NFL training camps are starting this week, and for many fans, it’s the first sign the season is truly on its way.

Now for the reality check: The season isn’t starting for 45 days.

Still, after a slow summer (Michael Vick notwithstanding), the start of training camp means the start of the preseason, which leads to the start of the season. After weeks of little news, there will be plenty for your favorite team and the rest of the league, just about every day for the rest of the summer.

From a fantasy standpoint, there is much work to be done in the preseason, besides getting ready for the draft. Pay attention to:

– Injuries. Some key fanatasy players inevitably get dinged up in the preseason; know who’s hurting and how long they will be sidelined before your draft.

– Cuts. There’s always a few minor name players who are released before Week 1. Don’t accidentally draft one because you weren’t paying attention to the coming weeks’ NFL news.

– Starting job battles. I’m anointing this the “Ron Dayne Proviso” after a somewhat resurgent Dayne was slated for big things in the Broncos’ backfield last year, then dropped off the depth chart and was eventually traded. Not just starters, but important backups that might produce fantasy stats (like a third receiver). Teams’ running backs and receivers seem to have the most flux; there aren’t many QB battles this year, however (and you’d likely not draft a QB who wins such a battle anyway). Also, beware of the shaky kicker who might get replaced over the coming weeks.

– RBBCs. Also known as the Running Back by Committee, the situation where two running backs share the bulk of the carries. Along the lines of a starting job battle, keep tabs if an RBBC becomes less by committee as the preseason progresses.

– Rookies. Look not only for how the newcomers do in the preseason, but also when they sign. Long holdouts likely won’t make much of an impact early in the season.

Posted on 24th July 2007
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Make like a tree and leave

The Michael Vick saga continues.

The latest reports suggest Vick may be encouraged to take a paid leave of absence. Whether Vick would take a leave while his indictment for dogfighting works its way toward resolution is another matter.

If the leave can be worked out, Vick should take it. Imagine the scenario if he doesn’t — he’s going to be bothered all season with questions about the indictment. He’ll be booed mercilessly at road games. There will be protests outside stadiums. The pressure is going to be too much.

Forget the concept of Vick being innocent until proven guilty — even if he is cleared, he still demonstrated some degree of poor judgment by letting this happen on his property, or simply not paying attention when as a star athlete he should have been more careful. Not condoning what Vick possibly did, he needs to accept that until this mess is resolved, via some sort of acquittal, plea deal or jail time, he should step back. It will help on the long path of restoring his image (if it can be fully restored), and it keep him focused on what should be the most pressing matter in his life — the indictment.

Vick likely will not become the Hall of Fame quarterback people thought he might become when he entered the league. But he is still young (27) and still can make an impact in the coming years. Maybe that impact will come with a different team — look at Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer, all QBs who won a Super Bowl with their second team. But that impact won’t ever come if this season completely destroys Vick. He won’t ever completely salvage his reputation, but he can improve it in the future, to the point where the first thing people think of when they hear his name isn’t dogfighting, if he realizes one skipped season now might save his career later.

Posted on 21st July 2007
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Big trouble for Vick

Michael Vick has been indicted on dogfighting charges. And to quote Tootie from “The Facts of Life,” he is in trouble …

I’m a little surprised how this story exploded, how so much outrage has surfaced. It’s undoubtedly big news, but I didn’t think it be this big of news. Then I read the the detailed indictment, available online, and understood why it became such big news — an athlete of Vick’s renown combined with some pretty gruesome accusations did the trick. The fact the indictment was online probably added fuel to the fire, as well as Vick’s initial denials after his Virginia property was raided.

If Vick’s reputation has been irreparably damaged, how will that affect his career? Possible jail time and league suspensions notwithstanding, can he play at the same level? This situation will not only be a distraction for Vick, but also the Falcons. Some players when faced with this legal adversity play harder than ever, others let the distraction get the best of them. Since Vick has never been the most consistent passer to begin with, it might be a long season in Atlanta.

It might be a little callous to speculate on Vick’s fantasy value in light of the crimes he’s being accused of, but it still must be addressed. And you shouldn’t not draft a player just because you don’t like him (this principle is known as the “Terrell Owens rule”). That said, Vick’s fantasy value has dropped, to the point I don’t think he’s a QB1 anymore. There’s just going to be too much hanging over his head in the coming weeks. If you take the risk, make sure you have a solid second quarterback (taking Falcons backup Joey Harrington doesn’t count) who can step in if Vick plays poorly, is suspended or jailed. As a QB2, he could be a sleeper if he does overcome all this adversity. But that’s a big if.

Posted on 19th July 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all, NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »

Daunte’s peak

Quarterback Daunte Culpepper got his wish — the Miami Dolphins released him.

The Dolphins were trying to trade Culpepper, who struggled last season and eventually was benched for more rehab after coming off major knee surgery the season before. New coach Cam Cameron brought in Trent Green, then barely let Culpepper practice at the team’s minicamp last month. Miami had unsuccessfully tried to deal Daunte, whose big contract made a trade difficult.

So Culpepper is on the market, and the Jaguars have shown the most interest to sign him. Even if Jacksonville picks him up, his fantasy value is still limited — he’s not going to come in and take over as starter unless Byron Leftwich and David Garrard fall apart (or get injured during training camp). That’s not to say he won’t take over at midseason — maybe his knee is fully healed and he’ll return to his Pro Bowl form, though I doubt it — but for now (and I suspect through Week 1), he’s not draftable.

Posted on 18th July 2007
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Walk This Way

Earl

The photo above (which I finally got to work, hurray!) is of former Houston Oilers star running back Earl Campbell, and the back of that kid’s head is me, age 10, in 1980. I got his autograph that day, along with many other Oilers, in a story I’ll save for another time when there little NFL news to pontificate about. I thought about that day after seeing another photo in Sports Illustrated this week, a photo that featured 16 Heisman Trophy winners. In the picture, 15 of the players are striking a Heisman pose, but Campbell is sitting down.

Campbell is only 52 years old, but he is so run down physically that he couldn’t stand for that picture of past Heisman winners. He had an outstanding NFL career (eight years, 9,407 yards, 74 TDs) in which he ran over defenses, but now, he can barely walk.

Aside from the memory of getting Campbell’s autograph, the Heisman picture reminded me of the decision another star running back made — Tiki Barber’s choice to walk away from the game after last season. Barber was only 31 when he retired, after 10 years in the league, and still had the skills to play. What’s galling is that he was criticized for his choice to do something else. Campbell didn’t even get to 10 seasons, yet look where it left him today. Barber, Barry Sanders and others who retire shouldn’t be criticized for choosing not get beat up Sunday after Sunday. Playing in the NFL takes determination and guts. Walking away before it can cause you misery for the rest of your life takes even more.

Posted on 16th July 2007
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It was 20 years ago today

There hasn’t been much NFL news lately. That is, if you don’t include players getting arrested, players getting investigated, players getting suspended, etc. Yep, it’s been a slow few weeks.

I did see something on ESPN.com that intrigued me — Vinny Testaverde is going to re-sign with the Patriots. Testaverde was drafted in 1987 by Tampa Bay, with the No. 1 pick, and 20 years later, is amazingly still in the league. Yes, he’s going to be Tom Brady’s backup, but it’s a testament to Vinny’s expperience that he’s endured.

With that in mind, I reviewed the drafts since then and found that 17 first-round quarterbacks since 1987 are no longer in the league. Those 17 can be broken down into the following categories:

Achieved stardom: Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe

Solid careers: Jim Harbaugh, Jeff George (when he was healthy), Chris Miller

Barely below average: Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Tim Couch (OK, I’m being nice here)

Unmitigated busts: Kelly Stouffer, Andrew Ware, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, David Klingler, Heath Shuler, Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown

That’s a lot of busts. But none of these 17 have this one word in common with Testaverde — active.

Posted on 16th July 2007
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