2007 August - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for August, 2007

It’s drafty in here

It’s draft week, and my head is officially spinning. I have three in the next three days, I’ve compiled mock drafts, assembled strategies, brushed up on my research and printed out cheat sheets. I’m ready, I hope. Bring it on.

I always feel a lull after all my drafts are over, a kind of now-what feeling. Of course, the now-what is the season, to see if my drafts pay off or not. The lull will end on the first Sunday, when I’m checking live stats every 20 minutes and driving my wife crazy. After years of this, she’s used to it.

Posted on 30th August 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Stuff …

Two days from my first draft, nine from the start of the season, and my brain is racing like Lance Briggs.

– Another major holdout is back in action, with New England’s Asante Samuel signing a one-year deal. The Patriots slapped the franchise tag on the cornerback, and he wanted a long-term deal the team was unwilling to give before the July 17 deadline. Samuel had threatened to sit out the first 10 weeks of the season, but he had a change of heart and reported to camp. He’s a big-time defender who might be doing the Pats a favor by compromising, the team will be well-served to take care of him when contract negotiations for next season come up again.

– More holdout news: The Giants and Michael Strahan are talking, but he still has not decided if he will retire or report. If the holdout truly is about his desire to keep playing, he needs to give the Giants a break and make a decision soon. At least when Brett Favre took to long to make a decision, he didn’t wait until the week before the season began.

– How awesome would it be if Lance Briggs wrecked a Taurus instead of a $350,000 Lamborghini? That’s something you don’t hear often from highly paid athletes, that they crashed a nondescript, sensibly priced sedan. The expressway in Chicago he crashed on, in the middle of the night, is one that just begs you to speed, so if he was sober and wrecked the car, he must have been going really fast or was very, very distracted.

– Finally, No. 1 overall bust, er, pick Tim Couch used HGH under a doctor’s care after shoulder surgery but denied a report he used steroids. Do we care? His comeback failed with the Jaguars, and his bust status is more cemented than ever. If he did use steroids, he joins baseball player Jeremy Giambi as evidence performance-enhancing drugs don’t always enhance.

Posted on 29th August 2007
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Sorry state

Michael Vick has pleaded guilty, has been suspended by the league, has admitted to some pretty brutal details of his dogfighting involvement, and has apologized and vowed to changes his ways. Given the plea, the suspension, the details, do you believe the apology?

Whether or not Vick was sincere in his sorrow, the apology was something he had to do. If he had remained defiant, he’d never play again, besides risking the low sentence prosecutors are recommending. Vick will play again, maybe as a running back, maybe with or without the Falcons.

In the meantime, I’m Vicked out. What has Pacman Jones been doing?

Posted on 27th August 2007
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Step away from the cheat sheet, slowly

This is a bit of advice I’ve given before, and it helps me after weeks of preparing for the draft: Take a day off.

Depending on your level of dilligence/fanaticism, you’ve been a fantasy football junkie for at least a few weeks now. You have stopped reading books in favor of fantasy football magazines. You’ve stopped randomly surfing the Web in favor of fantasy sites. You go straight for the NFL notes in the newspaper’s sports section. The only reading material next to your toilet is a football magazine.

For just one day, take a step back. It’s easy to get to overwhelmed in all this before your draft(s). On your day off, do something football-related. Play Madden (or if you are a classic videogamer, Tecmo Bowl). Watch old NFL Films or a Super Bowl you might have on tape, or a classic football movie. Throw a football around with your kids. Anything except look at a cheat sheet or NFL Web site just for one day. All that news will be there the next day. Take this one day to get psyched for the upcoming NFL season for something other than fantasy football.

I’m going to pull out an old set of football cards this week, maybe Topps 1979. This is a great time of year, when football starts, not just on the pro level, but college and high school, too. Don’t overload your brain too much before fall even begins.

Posted on 25th August 2007
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 3 Comments »

Walk the line

I’m not even in the mood to write about Michael Vick, the details of his plea agreement or his suspension. Maybe I will in a few days. Instead, I’ve been pondering the journey of the offensive lineman.

Two recent news items led to the pondering. First, the Jets traded disgruntled guard Pete Kendall to the Redskins for a middle-round draft pick. Kendall wanted his contract renegotiated, the Jets refused, Washington needed a lineman, the deal was made.

Second, All-Pro guard Alan Faneca said there were no new talks with the Steelers. Faneca, unhappy with Pittsburgh’s contract extension offer, has said he would leave the team after his contract expired this season.

Linemen unhappy with their contracts seem to be a somewhat recent phenomenon. In the history of holdouts, it’s usually the rookie, the quarterback, the star defensive player. Then free agency happened, and the worth of the offensive lineman multiplied. Teams realized spending money to sign an experienced quality offensive lineman was a solid investment. As a result, O-linemen, the most anonymous guys on the field, command more clout than they ever had. No, teams won’t bend over backward to appease a disgruntled lineman like they will for a star running back (see Larry Johnson’s new deal), but they can’t afford to ignore their big guys either, Steelers and Jets notwithstanding.

I guess what occurred to me is how anonymous offensive linemen are to the average NFL fan. With the primary action — meaning, someone else has the ball — happening elsewhere, it’s easy to forget they are there, unless one is praised by the broadcast crew or one blows his assignment as the quarterback gets sacked. We know who the good offensive linemen are more on reputation than what we see on Sundays. So I’m going to try paying closer attention to the line this season, to see why the Steelers should be paying Alan Faneca more. Of course, if I have Willie Parker on my fantasy team, it will be difficult not to be watching him first.

Posted on 25th August 2007
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »

This and that

I’ve been so focused on fantasy football the past couple weeks I’ve overlooked some other news. Here a little recap:

– Larry Johnson has signed a new deal with the Chiefs and has returned to camp. He’s saying, however, he might not be ready for the team’s opener. For all the concern that Johnson gets too many carries, could this holdout actually help him stay a little fresher later in the season? My guess is he will get some carries Week 1, but it will be amazing if the holdout turns out to be a blessing in disguise.

Eli Manning went off on former teammate Tiki Barber for comments Barber made about the Giants quarterback’s lack of leadership. Though Manning may have been justified to fire back at Barber, and that in itself might have been leadership, is Eli feeling a little pressure to deliver this season? I don’t think this will be the make-or-break season of his career, but he must know that Giants fans are getting impatient. And with the team’s top rusher gone, the team’s success will fall upon Manning’s shoulders. It’s going to be an interesting season at the Meadowlands.

– Brady Quinn looked good in his preseason debut. It will be interesting to see when he supplants Charlie Frye as the Browns’ starting quarterback. Still waiting on JaMarcus Russell to sign with the Raiders …

– Chicago QB Rex Grossman was 9-for-11 passing yet still was embarrassingly sloppy in the Bears’ preseason game against the Colts. The Bears can’t return to the Super Bowl on their defense and special teams alone, they need a competent quarterback. In 1985, when Jim McMahon was injured, Steve Fuller stepped in and ably led the team until the punky QB’s return. No backup this year is up to Fuller’s level, or even Mike Tomczak’s. In Chicago, it will be another season of Grossman being the hot topic on sports radio.

Posted on 23rd August 2007
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Fantasy rankings: Defenses/special teams

Not much to say about defenses, other than to wait until late to draft one and understand how your league awards points to D/STs. Sometimes getting a good defense is just luck, luck in how many TDs a team will score, because sometimes it’s just random. The Bears might not get all the non-offensive touchdowns they did last year, but there still a pretty solid (and admittedly slightly biased) No. 1 on my list.

1. Bears
2. Ravens
3. Patriots
4. Chargers
5. Dolphins
6. Jaguars
7. Broncos
8. Steelers
9. Panthers
10. Eagles
11. Vikings
12. Cowboys
13. Jets
14. Raiders
15. Packers
16. Seahawks
17. Chiefs
18. Bills
19. Bengals
20. Giants
21. 49ers
22. Falcons
23. Saints
24. Buccaneers
25. Colts
26. Cardinals
27. Rams
28. Titans
29. Browns
30. Redskins
31. Lions
32. Texans

Posted on 21st August 2007
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Plead, Mister, Plead

Michael Vick is going to plead guilty to federal dogfighting charges. It was inevitable, as all his friends/co-defendents entered plea agreements and more evidence mounted against the Atlanta Falcons quarterback. He’ll probably see some prison time, and who knows what will become of his NFL career after he gets out (if he plays this year, I’ll be stunned). If he says and does the right things, apologizes (or at least fakes repentance), he might find his way back into the league again.

What I hope Vick doesn’t do is blame others for his predicament, say everybody conspired against him and he was forced to take the plea. He’s accepting guilt, he now needs to accept guilt. If he starts claiming he’s a victim in all this, Roger Goodell may never let him back in the league, his notoriety will follow him around for the rest of his life, and he’ll be lumped in with all those other spoiled athletes and celebrities who flaunt law and decency. If he seems genuinely contrite (putting aside his ego if need be), sure there will be protests and booing if he returns to the league, but it might not be as severe and he can try to finish out his career with some dignity.

Finally, it’s sad that Vick, once thought to be the exciting future of the NFL, may be most remembered for this. Someday, people will recall what an incredible athlete he was, and how he threw it away.

Posted on 21st August 2007
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »

Fantasy rankings: Kickers

Almost done …

Hoepfully, you already know not to sweat the choice of a kicker too much. Last year’s top-scoring kicker was Robbie Gould with 143 (non-fantasy) points; 22 other kickers scored more than 100 points, with Olindo Mare at 100. That’s a 43-point difference, and over 17 weeks, about 2 1/2 points difference per week. That’s almost negligible. Take the top 12 kickers, and the difference is only 28 points, less than 2 per week.

Of course, if you get extra points for longer field goals or are penalized for missed field goals, you want a mildly accurate kicker. Of the top 12 below, only Neil Rackers and David Akers were below 80 percent for field goals; Akers was the only kicker with less than 20 FGs. Basically, Akers had an off season.

Given a choice between two seemingly equal kickers, remember, kickers in domes generally do better than ones outside, kickers in warm climates do better than ones up north, and kickers for high-scoring offenses garner more points than lower-scoring offenses.

1. Adam Vinatieri, Patriots
2. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
3. Shayne Graham, Bengals
4. Jeff Wilkins, Rams
5. Robbie Gould, Bears
6. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
7. Josh Brown, Seahawks
8. Matt Stover, Ravens
9. David Akers, Eagles
10. Jason Elam, Broncos
11. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
12. John Kasay, Panthers
13. Joe Nedney, 49ers
14. Olindo Mare, Saints
15. Jason Hanson, Lions
16. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
17. Mike Nugent, Jets
18. Jay Feely, Dolphins
19. Jeff Reed, Steelers
20. Rian Lindell, Bills
21. Rob Bironas, Titans
22. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
23. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
24. Martin Gramatica, Cowboys
25. Phil Dawson, Browns
26. Dave Rayner, Packers
27. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
28. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
29. Justin Medlock, Chiefs
30. Kris Brown, Texans
31. Shane Suisham, Redskins
32. Billy Cundiff, Falcons

Posted on 20th August 2007
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Fantasy rankings: Tight ends

I could name you a dozen tight ends to draft this year. I could do this because the top 12 tight ends are mostly consistent from cheat sheet to cheat sheet.

I’m not going to say the dropoff is at No. 12, because Randy McMichael, Heath Miller or Owen Daniels aren’t that far off in fantasy terms than the couple TEs right before them. I was just surprised that from six different sources, the top 12 tight ends were the same, with the exception of one player in one cheat sheet. That’s an unusual consensus for so many players.

Antonio Gates is the runaway No. 1. The next six TEs are somewhat interchangeable, with Tony Gonzalez holding a slight edge and Vernon Davis and Chris Cooley in this group more for their potential than last year’s stats. If there is a dropoff, it’s after Cooley or Ben Watson, going down to about Tony Scheffler at No. 16. Still, that’s pretty good depth for a position that once was a fantasy wasteland several years ago.

1. Antonio Gates, Chargers
2. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
3. Jeremy Shockey, Giants
4. Todd Heap, Ravens
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers
6. Alge Crumpler, Falcons
7. Chris Cooley, Redskins
8. Ben Watson, Patriots
9. Kellen Winslow, Browns
10. Jason Witten, Cowboys
11. L.J. Smith, Eagles
12. Dallas Clark, Colts
13. Randy McMichael, Rams
14. Heath Miller, Steelers
15. Owen Daniels, Texans
16. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
17. Daniel Graham, Broncos
18. Desmond Clark, Bears
19. Greg Olsen, Bears
20. David Martin, Dolphins
21. Chris Baker, Jets
22. Bo Scaife, Titans
23. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
24. Eric Johnson, Saints
25. Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
26. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
27. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
28. Ben Troupe, Titans
29. Zach Miller, Raiders
30. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
31. Jerramy Stevens, Buccaneers
32. Jermaine Wiggins, Jaguars
33. Robert Royal, Bills
34. Dan Campbell, Lions
35. Donald Lee, Packers
36. Ben Utecht, Colts
37. Bubba Franks, Packers
38. Reggie Kelly, Bengals
39. George Wrightster, Jaguars
40. David Thomas, Patriots
41. Jeff King, Panthers

Posted on 17th August 2007
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