Just got done watching the closing minutes of a replay of last year’s AFC championship, leading me to realize Sunday’s Patriots-Colts game will be even more intense than I had originally thought. I’m picking the Colts, just because I think there is less pressure on them yet a little more at stake, but in a league with confidence points, I’m setting this game at 1. Aside from this game, this is going to be tough week to pick. Dallas is favored over Philadelphia, but the game is at Philly and it’s a prime-time divisional matchup. New Orleans is favored at home against Jacksonville, but the Jags have been the better team. Even some of the lesser matchups — Atlanta-San Francisco, Cincinnati-Buffalo, Oakland-Houston — are tough calls.

WEEK 9
TAMPA BAY over Arizona
DETROIT over Denver
Green Bay over KANSAS CITY
TENNESSEE over Carolina
San Diego over MINNESOTA
Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA over San Francisco
Washington over N.Y. JETS
BUFFALO over Cincinnati
CLEVELAND over Seattle
INDIANAPOLIS over New England
OAKLAND over Houston
Dallas over PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore
Last week: 7-6 Season: 74-41

The fantasy season is halfway over. That went quick, didn’t it? Here’s a midseason look at the bests and worsts of the first half of 2007.

MVP
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots. A clear no-brainer, in total fantasy points, he is so far ahead of second place in most formats that it’s silly. I’ve posted this before — Brady’s success is all the more valauable considering he was the third or fourth quarterback taken, and a third-rounder at best, in most drafts.

QUARTERBACK
MVP — Brady. Duh. MVP after Brady — Tony Romo, Cowboys. A tough call, but Romo has shown last year wasn’t a fluke. Surprise star — Derek Anderson, Browns. Brady who? (Quinn is who I meant.) In what was supposed to be a big question mark for Cleveland, Anderson has delivered similar fantasy numbers to Romo and Peyton Manning. Bust — Drew Brees, Saints. He might be coming around, but fantasy owners who took Brees ahead of Brady must be still asking “Why me? Why now?”

RUNNING BACK
MVP — LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. Despite his slow start, only Adrian Peterson and Joseph Addai have put up similar numbers (Ronnie Brown may have won this if he hadn’t been injured). Yes, it’s been that rough a year for fantasy RBs. Surprise star — Adrian Peterson, Vikings. As good as advertised, he was a value pick when many, including me, thought Marshawn Lynch (who’s been solid) would be the top rookie. Bust — Steven Jackson, Rams. He’s been injured, and he plays on the struggling Rams, but fantasy owners who took Jackson with the No. 2 overall pick have been royally screwed, moreso than Larry Johnson and Frank Gore owners.

WIDE RECEIVER
MVP — Randy Moss, Patriots. The rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. With 11 TDs and 779 yards in eight games, he’s the No. 2 fantasy player this season behind Brady. Surprise star — Plaxico Burress, Giants. His eight touchdowns rank behind only Moss, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Braylon Edwards. Bust — Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. He has 645 yards receiving but only one TD, flip-flopping the stats Anquan Boldin suffered through last year.

TIGHT END
MVP — Antonio Gates, Chargers. Still the best TE in the league, period. Surprise star — Dallas Clark, Colts. Not as many yards as Gates through the first half of the season, but more TDs, six, than all the other TEs and almost every running back. Bust — Todd Heap, Ravens. Struggling with a hamstring injury, he hasn’t looked like a top-five TE this season.

KICKER
MVP — Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Not a lot of field goals, but 17 more extra points than next closest kicker. Did I mention he’s the Patriots’ kicker? Surprise star — Kris Brown, Texans. Leading all kickers in fantasy points, and he has missed only one FG. Bust — Jeff Wilkins, Rams. He kicks in a dome but has missed six field goals this year and seems to be swept up in St. Louis’ general malaise.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
MVP — Patriots. Picking a best D/ST is subjective because every league’s rules are different, but I’m going with New England by virtue of leading the league in TDs and are near the top in points against, fumble recoveries, sacks and interceptions. Surprise star — Lions. Defense wasn’t supposed to be carrying Detroit this year, but the unit has performed well and delivered good fantasy points. Bust — Buccaneers. Their points against and sacks are good, but the Bucs have not scored a TD and have picked off just seven passes.

Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady. Now I got that redundancy out of the way, let’s look at other fantasy stars this week …

STARS
– Drew Brees, QB, Saints. New Orleans’ offense finally got back on its 2006, and Brees turned in his best game of the season: 336 yards passing, four touchdowns.

– Brett Favre, QB, Packers. I promise, I’ll stop gushing about Favre’s Monday night performance after this. He threw for 331 yards and two TDs (and no picks, important for Favre owners), and in leagues where big plays are rewarded, his two scoring passes were for 79 and 82 yards.

– Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers. He only caught three passes, but for 92 yards, and two for touchdowns.

SURPRISES
– Kevin Jones, RB, Lions. Jones has returned from his serious foot injury suffered last season, and he has returned as a valid fantasy option after his 104-yard, one-TD performance.

-- Marques Colston, WR, Saints. Colston was the biggest benefactor of Brees’ day, posting 85 yards receiving and three TD catches. Maybe he won’t be that big a bust this season?

– Lee Evans, WR, Bills. Speaking of receivers busting out of bust seasons, Evans caught five passes for 138 yards and a touchdown.

SLOTHS
– Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. Remember the talk about Gore approaching 2,000 yards rushing this season? After he gained 41 against the Saints, he’s only 1,565 away.

– Vince Young, QB, Titans. I know it was his first game back from injury, but 6-for-14 passing for 42 yards? And just 11 yards rushing? That USC team must be wondering where this Vince Young was two years ago.

– Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings. He’s still the top rookie this season, but his 70-yard, zero-TD game against the Eagles is a reminder that he is just a rookie, and on a mediocre team at that.

The Dallas Cowboys made a move for their future by signing quarterback Tony Romo to a six-year, $67 million dollar extension.

Dallas quarterbacks have been so hit-and-miss, well, more miss, since Troy Aikman’s retirement, the move to wrap Romo up isn’t a surprise. The money Jerry Jones threw at him might be a surprise, but Romo has proved that last year’s success wasn’t a fluke, that he is a top quarterback in the NFL. Early in Brett Favre’s career, the Packers wrapped him up with long, rich contract, and he led them to Super Bowl two years later. Romo might not be headed for a Hall of Fame career, but in an era where competent QBs are at a premium, the Cowboys were wise to sign him now before other teams came calling.

The hype has begun for Patriots-Colts, and last weekend was any indication, the game should be as good as advertised. The Pats’ win over Washington was impressive, but the Colts’ victory over Carolina wasn’t shabby, either. This will sound trite, but whatever defense plays better Sunday should win. And my condolences to people in Oakland and Houston who will get that game on CBS instead of the the pre-AFC Championship. Where’s the hype for Raiders-Texans?

More observations from October’s conclusion:

– I’m still wired after the Brett Favre launched an 82-yard TD pass to beat the Broncos on Monday night. The Packers could enter their Thanksgiving matchup against Detroit with a 9-1 record. Look ahead to Nov. 29 — the Packers play at Dallas, which might be the 2007 NFC version of Pats-Colts.

– On the flip side, can the Broncos recover from a loss like this? With the Chargers picking up steam and what should be a tough game at Detroit (never thought I’d type that), Denver is in danger of getting left behind the AFC, which this year more than ever, can’t happen if you want to get a playoff berth.

– New England has a 4 1/2-game lead over the Bills, so the Pats can lose and still run away with the AFC East. The Colts, on the other hand, have Jacksonville and Tennessee breathing down their neck — this game is more important to them. I don’t think the Jags or Titans would catch them anyway, but it just shows that Indy has more pressing things to worry about than 16-0 on Sunday.

– Feel sorry for the Texans — they are playing the best football in their history and are stuck in the toughest division. Too bad they can’t switch to the NFC West.

– Finally, why is ESPN inviting celebrities into the broadcast booth? Last week it was Russell Crowe, this week, Vince Vaughn, an improvement for sure, but unnecessary. It’s Monday Night Football, and though it lost something when it moved to ESPN, it still stands on its own — it doesn’t need celebrity help. On a side note, if you want to see Vaughn play football in a movie other than “Wedding Crashers,” rent “Rudy,” where you might not recognize him as a skinny backup Notre Dame quarterback.

I’m declaring this now, the Patriots and Colts will remain in the top two next week no matter who wins. Who will be No. 1 will be decided Sunday. The shifts in rankings are less pronounced as the season goes along; the Browns make the biggest jump (three spots), while the Redskins take the biggest fall, down six.

1. Patriots (8-0)
2. Colts (7-0)
3. Cowboys (6-1)
4. Packers (6-1)
5. Giants (6-2)
6. Titans (5-2)
7. Steelers (5-2)
8. Chargers (4-3)
9. Lions (5-2)
10. Jaguars (5-2)
11. Browns (4-3)
12. Seahawks (4-3)
13. Panthers (4-3)
14. Redskins (4-3)
15. Ravens (4-3)
16. Chiefs (4-3)
17. Buccaneers (4-4)
18. Broncos (3-4)
19. Cardinals (3-4)
20. Eagles (3-4)
21. Bills (3-4)
22. Saints (3-4)
23. Bears (3-5)
24. Texans (3-5)
25. Bengals (2-5)
26. Vikings (2-5)
27. Raiders (2-5)
28. 49ers (2-5)
29. Falcons (1-6)
30. Jets (1-7)
31. Rams (0-8)
32. Dolphins (0-8)

Last week I blogged about how torturous it was to have an opponent with players going on Monday night while you helplessly retain and hope to retain the league.

This might be more torturous: Having two players going on Monday night, and big deficit, and making up all that lost ground, save a half a point.

As I write this, our team has Brett Favre and the Packers defense in the Monday night game. We were down a bunch, but now are trailing by a half point with 3 minutes left in the game. We need about 7 yards from Favre, a sack, interception, fumble recovery from the defense, or any TD to win, and I have this bad feeling we are not going to get it. The Broncos are about to get the ball back, hopefully the defense comes through. It might have been better if we never got close.

Yes, I love fantasy football, even when I absolutely hate it, like nights like this.

UPDATE: Turns out Favre on needed 1 yard to give us the win, but the Broncos just sent it to OT, and the Packers won the toss. Unless Favre throws a pick (we lose points in our league for turnovers), we should wrap this up, but perhaps I shouldn’t get cocky. I was on the edge of my seat hoping the Broncos wouldn’t score a TD at the end. Fantasy reasons aside, this has been a great game.

UPDATE 2: Should have been cocky. Holy effing poop. The legend of Favre continues.

My wife is a moderate football fan, but was once as obsessed as I was (as the Cowboys waned in the later ’90s, so did her interest). I forget sometimes how big an NFL fan she was, but was reminded Sunday night. We were watching the World Series, when she heard on the TV that Matsui was coming to bat. Kaz Matsui, but all she heard was Matsui.

“Isn’t there another athlete named Matsui?” she asked.

I replied there was, Hideki Matsui, the Yankees outfielder.

“No, there was a football player named Matsui.”

I thought about it for a few seconds and had a eureka moment: “You mean Matt Suhey, Walter Payton’s fullback?”

Yes, she meant that Matt Suhey. I was impressed she remembered and amused she confused a white fullback from the ’80s with a Japanese infielder.

This wasn’t her first flashback of the day — she saw a highlight of Kellen Winslow scoring a touchdown and was confused how he could still be playing when he starred all those years ago. Though she needs to watch some more NFL Network with me, yes, she’s a keeper.

The Giants-Dolphins game wasn’t aired in my market, so I didn’t get to see much else than the highlights, but from everything I saw and read, what a mess. If it was the NFL’s intention to put on display all the league has to offer to a European audience, I wonder if they succeeded.

Granted, the NFL couldn’t control the rain, which made the game a mess. Eli Manning threw for only 59 yards; Cleo Lemon embarrassingly lost a fumble while trying to pass the ball, a scene that must have made English fans exclaim “What a tosser!” And who knew the Dolphins would be this bad. But if the NFL does try this again, at least they can try to stack the odds in their favor, scheduling two playoff teams and playing the game at the right time of year, not in London during the rainy season or Mexico City when it’s too hot or in Canada when it’s too snowy even by Green Bay standards.

Even though the London game might have been entertaining to American fans, the NFL really needed a well-played 23-21 game decided by a last-second field goal.

Just when it looked like Tom Brady couldn’t top himself, he not only threw for three touchdowns and 306 yards Sunday, but also ran for two TDs. For those of you keeping track at home, that 30 passing touchdowns in eight games, which puts him on pace for 60 — the pace actually slowed down after the Patriots’ 52-7 mauling of Washington.

Let’s examine Brady’s fantasy prowess this year. Assuming standard scoring (1 point for 25 yards passing, 1 for 10 yards rushing, 4 for a passing TD, 6 for rushing and receiving TDs, -2 for fumbles and interceptions), Brady is averaging about 28 fantasy points a game. By comparison, LaDainian Tomlinson averaged about 26.4 last season in what was considered the greatest fantasy season ever.

More impressively, Brady is crushing opponents. The Redskins came in with one of the best defenses in the league, then gave up 52 points. Of course, it’s not all Brady — his supporting cast and the Pats defense deserve a lot of credit too — but this team isn’t a dominating 8-0 without him. A showdown against the Colts beckons. And with three Super Bowl victories and maybe a fourth on the way, so does the Hall of Fame.