2008 February - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for February, 2008

Play it again, Samuel

Cornerback Asante Samuel jumped the Patriots’ ship Friday, signing a huge deal with Philadelphia on the first day of free agency.

Samuel’s move isn’t a surprise, as he wasn’t too pleased when he was designated the Patriots’ franchise player last year. New England generally doesn’t hand out big money, but I wonder what impact this will have on the team’s defense, which wasn’t playing as efficiently as the offense by season’s end.

The Eagles must be hoping for an immediate benefit — Samuel nabbed 10 interceptions last season, the Philly defense 11. Though the Eagles’ problems extend beyond its secondary, it’s a step in the right direction. Life is tough for an 8-8 team that finishes in last place in its division.

Posted on 29th February 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Offseason review: Wide receivers

Back to looking back, this time at receivers. It would seem this was a great year for the WR, with Randy Moss’ incredible resurgence, big seasons from T.O., Housh and Braylon Edwards, and nice years from lower-tier receivers like Wes Welker and Kevin Curtis. But looking beyond the great performances that might have made 2007 the Year of the WR, there were some major busts at WR that may have been overshadowed by other receivers’ success and the bigger busts at running back.

Here’s my postseason top 15 — again, these aren’t ranking for 2008:

1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
3. Braylon Edwards, Browns
4. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts
6. Plaxico Burress, Giants
7. Chad Johnson, Bengals
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
9, Marques Colston, Saints
10. Greg Jennings, Packers
11. Wes Welker, Patriots
12. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
13. Torry Holt, Rams
14. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
15. Steve Smith, Panthers

It’s a pretty impressive top 15, but consider some of the names not here, or not as high. Comparing this to my preseason WR rankings, absentees include Marvin Harrison, Roy Williams, Javon Walker and Lee Evans. And Smith was lucky he sneaked in at No. 15, if Andre’ Johnson had been healthy for one more game, he might have usurped that spot. And though Chad Johnson finished with good numbers, he was putting up infuriating stats for most of the season.

As for next fall, Moss is a first-round pick — he might not break any records, but he’ll be the best receiver by a few TDs again. I’m wondering if fantasy owners will have the stomach to make Burress, Jennings or Welker their WR1. Provided the outlook for Harrison and Smith improves, 2008 could be the deepest batch of receivers ever. Whether the WRs live up to that expectation will be another story.

Posted on 29th February 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 4 Comments »

The uncertain tundra

Will Brett Favre play another season for the Packers? Haven’t we heard this before?

Mark Murphy, the new Packers president believes the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback will return. Green Bay fans are used to holding their breaths.

I think Favre will return, that he doesn’t want his last NFL pass to be an interception. He obviously still can play, and the Packers still have the talent to make another run at the Super Bowl. But it would be nice if he’d let everybody know sooner than later. The Packers have to either prime Aaron Rodgers to take over and/or secure a free agent QB, and Wisconsinites really could do without the stress, especially after this winter.

End the suspense, Brett, and put your fans at ease.

Posted on 28th February 2008
Under: Bye weeks | 3 Comments »

Moving along

With free agency beginning Friday, the transactions are coming fast and furious:

– The end might be now for David Carr, whom the Panthers cut Wednesday. He had a chance to prove it was just the Texans that caused his poor play, but after a move to Carolina, he proved he was a No. 1 bust. Somewhere, Tim Couch is commiserating.

– The Panthers also signed Muhsin Muhammad, who originally borke into the league in Carolina. He might take some of the pressure off Steve Smith, but it won’t help if Jake Delhomme doesn’t stay healthy and return to form.

– With Marshawn Lynch emerging as a top-flight running back, the Bills let Anthony Thomas go. Fred Jackson was solid enough as Lynch’s backup — a good thing considering Buffalo running backs in recent years haven’t been the healthiest lot.

– David Givens is gone in Tennesee after a knee injury derailed his success. Oh, he left New England to be cut by another team.

–The Browns are offering Derek Anderson $20 million for three seasons, which makes you wonder what’s going to happen to Brady Quinn if he takes the offer. Remember, Philip Rivers was in a similar situation in San Diego before Drew Brees departed. Will the Browns wait on Quinn, or vice versa?

– Finally, the Ravens released Mike Anderson. Though he’s not far removed from a 12-touchdown season with Denver, the former Marine was nothing more than a backup in Baltimore. He’ll be remembered for winning Rookie of the Year at age 27.

Posted on 28th February 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »

The wonder of the Wonderlic

The NFL held its combine last weekend, and I didn’t watch. I’ve admitted before I’m not as nutty about the draft as some people, and though I read a few articles on the combine (by the way, Darren McFadden is not slow), I didn’t watch on the NFL Network.

The one thing that’s always intrigued me about the testing of NFL prospects is the testing of their brains, via the Wonderlic Personnel Test. I found this site that gives the scores of every NFL quarterback prospect that took the test, and it’s alarming to see that Heath Shuler scored a 16 and is now in Congress. Jeff George scored a 10, which seems about right. Tony Romo scored a 37, think he’d date someone smarter than Jessica Simpson? Tom Brady got a 33, but would have done better if Randy Moss wide right in the testing room

I tried looking for other position scores but didn’t find much. I think because quarterback is supposedly the most cerebral position in the game, their scores are analyzed that much more. And though it’s fun to take mock tests and joke about players’ scores, I wonder what it really means — after all, Alex Smith scored a 40 yet still throws the ball to the other team at an unintelligent rate.

Posted on 27th February 2008
Under: Bye weeks | 3 Comments »

The bad seed

The NFL is considering changing its playoff format so that seeding is based on records, not on division titles.

The discussion comes after the 9-7 Bucs hosted a playoff game against the 10-6 wild-card Giants. From the story, it seems the NFL also is hoping that teams that already have clinched their division play through Week 17.

On the surface, it seems like a good proposal, but you must ask, does winning a division become less important? Since each division only has four teams (a departure from the 5- and 6-team past), maybe it has. Division winners still would make the playoffs, they just wouldn’t be guaranteed a home game.

I’m not sure I like the proposal. Yes, teams with better records should be rewarded, but if the NFC East, for example, becomes a bloodbath next year and its winner finishes 10-6, should it be penalized for playing in a better division than say, a Cardinals team that somehow went 11-5 but got four of those wins against the Rams and 49ers. It’s an extremely hypothetical case, but in the NFL, these extremes sooner or later happen.

Posted on 22nd February 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 1 Comment »

Offseason review: Running backs

This was the most bizarre season for running backs. Not just for the number who were injured, but the amount that were total busts.

Perusing my rankings from last summer, I’m shocked at the mess RBs became. I knew it was a rough season, but I didn’t realize how brutal it really was until I saw my list again. Out of my top 20, I’d say only seven lived up to their potential. The other 13 were beset by injuries and/or were busts to varying degrees. And that’s not including LaDainian Tomlinson, who disappointed by not having another superhuman season. Even some of the successful running backs did well despite injuries (Bryan Westbrook and Joseph Addai) — that’s how rough a season it was.

Here is my after-the-fact top 15:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Joseph Addai, Colts
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
5. Clinton Portis, Redskins
6. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
7. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
8. Jamal Lewis, Browns
9. Marion Barber III, Cowboys
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
11. Willis McGahee, Ravens
12. Willie Parker, Steelers
13. Ryan Grant, Packers
14. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Before I highlight who isn’t on this list, it’s interesting how there weren’t many complete running backs this year. Parker rushed for 1,316 yards and just two touchdowns. Jones-Drew scored 9 touchdowns yet only rushed for 768 yards. Taylor was the opposite, with 1,202 yards and five touchdowns. And McGahee, despite nice stats, never seemed a reliable fantasy option week to week.

Now, for the big names who missed this top 15: Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, Rudi Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown. Admittedly, if I went to 20 instead of 15, Maroney, Jackson and Gore might have made it (along with LenDale White and Earnest Graham). Brown was having a monster season before injury derailed it. And Gore and Jones did top 1,000 yards, though Gore produced only two 100-plus-yard weeks (and scored TDs in just three games) and Jones finished with only one touchdown. But if you were relying on any of these omissions as your RB1, I hope you found an adequate replacement as the season went along.

As for next season, I doubt there will be a sudden exodus from running backs in the first round. Even with Parker’s lack of touchdowns, he’s still too reliable of a yardage gainer to not take in the top 10. Larry Johnson healthy is a first-rounder. Maroney came on nicely late and should be back in the top 10, and Bush is too much of a dual threat to ignore beyond the second round. And after Peterson and Lynch’s rookie success, expect Darren McFadden to go high. Then pray it’s not another atypical year for running backs.

Posted on 20th February 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Offseason review: Quarterbacks

This is the first of several posts reviewing the fantasy season that was and taking an initial look ahead. Starting with quarterbacks, it’s safe to say Tom Brady put up perhaps the best individual performance in fantasy history. Looking back at my rankings from last August, I had Brady fourth, behind Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees. Funny how even Manning didn’t come close to Brady’s numbers. If I had to rank the top 15 or so QBs after the fact (and these aren’t rankings for the upcoming year –, as much as I like Brett Favre, I don’t think he’s going to be a top-five QB in 2008 — early picks for next season will be coming soon), this is what it would look like:

1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Brett Favre, Packers
5. Drew Brees, Saints
6. Derek Anderson, Browns
7. Carson Palmer, Bengals
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
9. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
10. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
11. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
12. Eli Manning, Giants
13. David Garrard, Jaguars
14. Vince Young, Titans
15. Jay Cutler, Broncos

Compared to my rankings, Palmer, Marc Bulger, McNabb, Jon Kitna, Young and Rivers underperformed; Favre, Romo, Anderson and Roethlisberger were among the overachievers (as well as Brady, of course). Injuries were a problem (though not as much as at running back), for Bulger and Matt Leinart in particular.

Looking at fantasy magazine from last year, it missed on Palmer and Young but was somewhat optimistic on Favre. I bring this up because I find it a bit fascinating to see how the “experts” did. And though I don’t profess to be one of them, it’s good to know they are just as likely to not get rankings that right.

As for 2008, when was the last time Peyton Manning was not the top-rated quarterback? He’ll fall to the second round, where he might be joined by Romo. Eli Manning should get a bump up from the Super Bowl victory and the poise he showed the last two months of the season.

Posted on 19th February 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 4 Comments »

Head of the class … action

It was bound to happen, as soon as the story broke that the Patriots might have taped the Rams’ final walkthrough before Super Bowl XXXVI, someone has filed a class-action lawsuit against the team and coach Bill Belichick.

There has been an argument that the Rams have never been the same since losing that Super Bowl. But suing the Patriots? And people wonder why American society is so litigious. It’s a game, people. Even if the Pats did cheat, it’s a game.

What’s next, suing the Giants’ David Tyree for improper use of his helmet in making that great catch in Super Bowl XLII? After all, it robbed Patriot fans of a 19-0 season, they deserve restitution!

Posted on 17th February 2008
Under: Bye weeks | 2 Comments »

The season that was

The NFL season has been over for two weeks, but amazingly, the fantasy football season ended almost two months ago. Aside from most of the snow many parts of the country have been subjected to, it’s been a quick winter.

Before looking ahead, I want to take a few more glimpses at the fantasy season that was. Several weeks later, it’s OK to be nostalgic for Adrian Peterson and Braylon Edwards. The first thing I want to do in unveil the perfect team, the squad that realistically could have been drafted and won you a fantasy championship.

Joseph Addai
Terrell Owens
Tom Brady
Adrian Peterson
Randy Moss
Fred Taylor
Kellen Winslow Jr.
LenDale White
Brett Favre
Kevin Curtis
Dallas Clark
Brandon Marshall
Mason Crosby

I assembled this team in a general order of what round they might have been taken in. Remember, Favre was outside the top 15 in quarterbacks before the season, Moss wasn’t expected to be much more than an WR3, and who would have guessed Taylor would rush for 1,200 yards. It might have been easy to pick LaDainian Tomlinson for this team’s first-rounder, but realistically, T.O. wouldn’t have been around on the way back of a snaking draft, nor would Brady two rounds later. Addai was the fourth pick in many drafts, that might have been the magic number for a smart owner.

Of course, trying to decipher what is the best draft position is futile, as you never know what fortune, and injuries, might deliver, especially after this year. But if you want to try, it’s only six months until draft season comes around again.

Posted on 17th February 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »