2008 July - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for July, 2008

Fantasy preview: Houston

The Texans improved to 8-8 last season, suggesting maybe it was all David Carr’s fault. Houston features two quality quarterbacks, no strong fantasy RBs and a budding star in Andre Johnson.

QUARTERBACKS: Matt Schaub amassed solid numbers in 10 games, though only 9 touchdowns, before his season ended to injury. Sage Rosenfels stepped in and tossed 15 TDs. The Texans are going with Schaub, who is a strong QB2 with QB1 potential, particularly with a healthy Andrew Johnson. If your league allows a third quarterback, Rosenfels is a solid handcuff for Schaub as well as a sleeper if he’s pressed back into service.

RUNNING BACKS: The running game should improve, but with whom: The oft-injured Ahman Green, the newly acquired Chris Brown or rookie Steve Slaton. Whoever emerges as the featured back should be considered an RB3. The backup becomes an RB5, with the third candidate, likely Slaton, someone to keep an eye on once the season begins.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Johnson will benefit from a full season, both from him and Schaub, and is a good risk as a low-end WR1 for 2008. The Texans’ other receivers should also excel again, with Kevin Walter a decent WR4 (amybe even a sleeper WR3) and Andre Davis a solid WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels is oh so close to being a TE1, with 63 receptions for 768 yards, but he only scored three touchdowns last year. He might find the end zone more often in 2008, branding him a sleeper TE1, but otherwise count on him as a top TE2.

KICKER: Kris Brown uncorked starting kicker numbers, scoring 115 points and converting 86.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, including all five 50-yarders he tried. He will be a lower-end K1 again.

Posted on 31st July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Indianapolis

Vacation is over: Not just mine, but the breaks of NFL players who are back in training camps. I’m going to finish up the team-by-team previews, moving to the AFC South today, then post another set of fantasy rankings of the preseason ramps up. Just 35 days until the season opens!

The Colts feature sure fantasy bets, with only Marvin Harrison’s uncertainty clouding their roster.

QUARTERBACK: With Tom Brady’s astounding season in 2007, Peyton Manning is no longer the top fantasy QB, but he’s still as sure a choice as any quarterback in the league over the past years. He’s the next QB pick after Brady — likely in the second round — and expect another year of at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS: Is Joseph Addai the next RB on the board after LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson? Some sources think so, though I think he’s closer to about No. 5 but still a clear RB1. After a blazing start in 2007, he slowed down to finish with 1,072 and an impressive 12 touchdowns, along with 41 receptions and 3 TD catches. Expect similar TD and reception numbers and a bump in rushing yards. Kenton Keith delivered more-than-adequate numbers as Addai’s backup, enough to consider him as a sleeper RB4, but will the return of Dominic Rhodes cut into Keith’s field time? Consider both as RB5s.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It’s been a rough 12 months for Harrison, and his days as a major fantasy force might be over. If he somehow overcomes his knee problems and off-field issues, he might be worthy as a WR3 on draft day. But it’s too big a risk, particularly if you are not confident of your top two receivers. Take Harrison as a WR4 or WR5, and be ready to release him if his season goes south. Oh, there is this other receiver in Indy, Reggie Wayne, who caught 104 passes for 1,510 yards and 10 TDs last year. He’s a WR1 again, perhaps the next receiver taken after Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. With Harrison’s demise, Anthony Gonzalez becomes a vogue sleeper pick, maybe as a WR3. Don’t over-reach, but don’t be surprised if he finishes with about 50 receptions and 5-7 TDs.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark picked up the receiving-touchdown slack from Harrison, scoring 11 times, with 58 receptions and 616 yards. He might not put up those TD numbers again, but he is still a solid TE1 from whom you can expect similar receptions and yards.

KICKER: With the Indy offense, a dome and a warm-weather division, 35-year-old Adam Viniatieri remains a starting, top-five kicker.

Posted on 31st July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 4 Comments »

Fantasy preview: New York Jets

Take away the Jets’ two productive receivers, and New York might rival Miami in terms of fantasy wasteland. Will a revamped offensive line help?

QUARTERBACKS: Kellen Clemens or Chad Pennington? No matter who starts, neither is better than a QB3.

RUNNING BACKS: Thomas Jones might have wished he stayed in Chicago after rushing for a respectable 1,119 yards but only one TD. The Jets have upgraded their offensive line, so Jones’ numbers might improve, but even if, he’s a stretch at RB2, but a good option for your RB3. If Jones busts, Leon Washington waits, though his numbers were down in 2007. He’s no more than an RB4, likely better as an RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jerricho Cotchery put up great reception and yard stats but low TD numbers. Laveranues Coles scored six TDs but missed four games and delivered only half the yards as his teammate. Put them together and you’d have a great WR1. Separately, they are good WR3 options, with maybe Coles achieving WR2 numbers as the season progresses.

TIGHT ENDS: Chris Baker amassed OK TE2 stats last year — 41 receptions, 409 yards and 3 TDs — but don’t expect much improvement for 2008, meaning Baker remains a low-end TE2.

KICKER: Mike Nugent scored 110 points in 2007, not bad for kicking with an anemic offense. He was moderately accurate, making 80.6 percent of his field goals. On a different team, Nugent might be a starting fantasy kicker, but he’s better as a backup while with the Jets.

Posted on 27th July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Buffalo

The Bills defintely sport fantasy potential, but also sport the potential to frustrate. And if he stays a safe driver off the field, Marshawn Lynch might turn into a fantasy star.

QUARTERBACKS: Trent Edwards seems to have cemented the starter role over J.P. Losman, but that unlikely will translate into big fantasy numbers, at least initially. He’s a low-end QB2 or a QB3, but keep an eye on him if the Buffalo offense suddenly explodes.

RUNNING BACKS: Lynch’s rookie season was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson’s rookie season in Minnesota. All Lynch did was rush for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing three games. Expect his numbers, especially his TD totals to jump. He’s an RB1 candidate who might be ready for more greatness. Fred Jackson gained 300 yards and averaged 5.2 yards a carry in Lynch’s absence last season, and is a sleeper handcuff to Lynch.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The story of Lee Evans’ fantasy career: A big game one week, misery the next. There was more of the misery than the big games last year, with a career-low five touchdowns. He’s talented enough not to pass up as a WR2 and hope for the best. Josh Reed caught 51 passes for 578 yards, but no touchdowns — he’ll likely score at least one this year, but he’s no more than a WR5 on draft day, an occasion in which you shouldn’t worry about Roscoe Parrish.

TIGHT ENDS: Robert Royal scored three TDs but only caught 25 passes for 248 yards in 2007. Those numbers likely won’t improve this year, so don’t rely him as more than a lower-tier TE2.

KICKER: Rian Lindell was like Jay Feely in Miami — accurate, but low points because of his team’s anemic offense. The Bills aren’t as anemic, but Lindell remains no better than a second kicker.

Posted on 24th July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Miami

Compared to the Patriots, the rest of the AFC East is a fantasy wasteland, and nowhere is that abyss more evident than in Miami. Other than Ronnie Brown, don’t expect to see many Dolphins in your league’s lineups every week.

QUARTERBACKS: Whether Josh McCown remains the starter or John Beck or rookie Chad Henne step up, none is anything more than a QB3. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

RUNNING BACKS: Ronnie Brown was putting up monster numbers last year before his season ended. When healthy, he’s RB1 material, but many sources are rating him lower. If you risk him as your RB1, be confident in your next two running backs — but I like the risk. Otherwise, he’s a solid choice as an RB2. Ricky Williams is said to be in great shape, but I’m skeptical he actually resurrect his career again. Take him maybe as an RB4 or RB5, or as insurance if you own Brown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Ernest Wilford arrives from Jacksonville, and Ted Ginn Jr. enters his second season. Neither is more than a WR4, simply because of the morass at quarterback.

TIGHT ENDS: In his first year with the Dolphins, David Martin set a career high for yards (303) and scored two touchdowns. But those stats are only TE2 numbers, and a lower-end TE2 at that. Don’t expect more.

KICKER: Jay Feely delivered an accurate season, making 21 of 23 field goals and all 26 extra points. But that added to only 89 points, and don’t expect that total to improve much with Miami’s offense. A K2 at the most.

Posted on 23rd July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: New England

Switching to the AFC finally, I’ll start with the least successful 18-1 team ever: the Patriots. Even if the Pats don’t approach their ludicrously gaudy fantasy numbers last year, plainly gaudy numbers are still possible.

QUARTERBACK: After Tom Brady’s record-breaking season in 2007, the only question for 2008 is how high in the first round should he be selected. If he just delivers 80 percent of his numbers from last season, that’s consistent enough to be a top-five overall pick in my book. He might not break any records again, but I think he’ll be focused enough to throw about 40 touchdowns and top 4,000 yards.

RUNNING BACKS: After being hampered by injury, Laurence Maroney finished the season strong, with the Patriots turning to him as opposing defenses started figuring out the passing offense. He will contribute more in 2008 and might be a sleeper first-round pick, but he’s a safer choice in the second round. Sammy Morris might be worth a late-round pickup as a RB5 or a handcuff; Kevin Faulk isn’t a draft-day option.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Randy Moss delivered the greatest fantasy performance by a WR last season, and like Brady, even if he puts up 80 percent of his 2007 stats, he’s worth a first-round pick, albeit later first round. Amazingly, the Pats possess two WR1s — Wes Welker finished 2007 with 112 receptions, 1,175 yards and 8 touchdowns. If defenses stay focused on Moss, Welker’s 2008 numbers will be similar, warranting WR1 status. With Donte’ Stallworth gone, Jabar Gaffney will see more balls thrown his way and should improve on the 36 receptions, 449 yards and 5 TDs from last year — he’s a sleeper WR2, definitely a WR3 if his numbers go up. Chad Jackson’s numbers might improve, too — he might be worth a shot as a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson missed four games in 2007 but still scored six touchdowns. One of these years he will jump into the TE elite, but for now, he’s more of a lower-tier TE1. Marcus Pollard will see enough passes to be a low-end TE2 or a strong TE3.

KICKER: A beneficiary of the Patriots’ offense, Stephen Gostkowski scored 137 points last year, even with only 21 field goals. That maths out to 74 PATs — impressive, but actually detrimental if your league gives extra points for longer field goals. I would think he’ll get a few more field goals in 2008 and is easily one of the three best kickers in the league.

WIDE RECEI

RUNNING BACKS:

Posted on 23rd July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Carolina

We finish the NFC with the Panthers, a team that drove fantasy owners mad last season. With a healthy Jake Delhomme, Carolina’s offense should return to normal.

QUARTERBACK: Delhomme threw eight touchdowns in three games before his season prematurely ended. Though I believe he’s a smidge risky as a QB1, he definitely can play like one and might put up 3,500 yards and 22 TDs in 2008. Those are QB1 numbers, but on draft day, take him as a QB2 and don’t be surprised if passes that expectation.

RUNNING BACKS: The trendy rookie to top 1,000 yards rushing is Jonathan Stewart, a 5-foot-11, 230-pound tank. But he will be sharing carries with DeAngelo Williams, who gets a chance to be the Panthers’ premier back after the departure of DeShaun Foster. Though many predict Stewart will supplant Williams as the team’s main man, I’m guessing they will form a RBBC (barring a Williams injury, of course). That makes both of them RB3s.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith’s numbers were down without Delhomme and WR threats on the other side of the field. That’s if you can call 1,002 yards and seven TDs down for the WR1. With his QB back, and the additions of D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad, Smith will rebound to about 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. That might be optimistic, but consider this: Smith caught four of Delhomme’s eight TDs in 2007. Hackett and Muhammad will put up WR5 numbers, but make no mistake, Smith is the main show in Carolina.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeff King might benefit a little from Delhomme’s return, but he’s a TE2, nothing more.

KICKER: John Kasay’s points were down along with the Carolina offense, but he’s still an accurate, reliable kicker. Take him as a K2.

Posted on 22nd July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Shock the Shockey

The Giants and Jeremy Shockey parted ways Monday. There are fantasy implications in New York.

Eli Manning got by for much of the season without Shockey on the field (or in the Super Bowl, on the sidelines), so he should adapt. Kevin Boss moves up on the depth chart and becomes a TE2 with sleeper potential. It will be interesting to see if the Giants adjust their offense to include the tight end less, or if Manning looks for Boss. I think the latter will be the case.

Oh, the Giants likely will be a happier team without Shockey (well, at least Tom Coughlin will be happier). And Shockey will be a happier tight end without the Giants.

Posted on 22nd July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all, NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: New Orleans

The Saints possess many fantasy weapons, including one more in the newly acquired Jeremy Shockey. Injuries hurt in 2007, but a healthy New Orleans team will provide fantasy owners will consistently decent stats.

QUARTERBACK: Drew Brees delivered another ridiculously impressive season, with 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns. Though he’s you could make a case selecting him ahead of Tony Romo in that second tier of quarterbacks (the first tier being Tom Brady and Peyton Manning), I’m ranking him just behind his Dallas counterpart simply because Marques Colston and Shockey aren’t Terrell Owens and Jason Witten. Still, Brees is an elite fantasy quarterback and will go high on draft day.

RUNNING BACKS: After Deuce McAllister went down in Week 3, Reggie Bush faced the test of being the team’s premier running back on his own. He somewhat failed, with his season ending after Week 13 due to injury and his final stats only showing 581 rushing yards and two touchdowns (along with 73 receptions and four receiving TDs). Until he can operate on his own, I’d rate Bush an RB2, with potential — so much potential — to become a stud RB1 with verstatile numbers akin to Brian Westbrook. If McAllister is healthy, he might put up impressive complementary numbers, but don’t be surprised if the downside of his career continues and he only amasses about 600 yards and five TDs. That’s not bad RB3 or RB4 territory, but he’s not the low-end RB2 he was prior to last season. Veteran Aaron Stecker turned in good numbers in McAllister’s and Bush’s absence, but his only draft value is as a late handcuff.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After a slow start, Marques Colston exploded for the WR1 numbers he was expected to produce. He’s a WR1 again, in that deep second tier after Randy Moss and Owens. With New Orleans’ offense, the team’s other receivers are quite draftable: David Patten as a WR3, and Lance Moore and Devery Henderson as WR5s.

TIGHT ENDS: Hello, Jeremy. Shockey’s arrival gives Brees another good target and might take pressure off Bush and the wide receivers. He’ll likely be happier in New Orleans, too. His stock rises just slightly, however, simply because there are so many teammates to share receptions with. But there’s enough to go around to keep Shockey TE1, with the potential to crack back into the top five fantasy tight ends in the league.

KICKER: The Saints drafted Tayler Mehlhaff, who only needs to beat out Martin Gramatica for the job. Mehlhaff plays in a dome, in a division with a dome and two warm-weather stadiums; plus he’ll get a big boost from the New Orleans offense. But he is a rookie, so provided he fends off Gramatica, don’t count on him as your starting kicker on Week 1. There’s potential here, but there are enough decent kickers that you don’t have to reach for Mehlhaff on draft day.

Posted on 21st July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Tampa Bay

If the Buccaneers are seriously in the running to acquire the services of Brett Favre, their fantasy outlook brightens. For now, there is just an aging veteran at quarterback and a running back that might emerge as a fantasy RB1.

QUARTERBACK: Jeff Garcia returns as the Bucs’ starter, and though he is a competent NFL quarterback with quality leadership skills, his days of impressive fantasy stats have long since passed. He’s not even a QB2 — there are far better backups to choose.

RUNNING BACKS: Earnest Graham stepped in for the injured Cadillac Williams last season and scored 10 touchdowns, including at least one in a stretch of six consecutive games in the second half of the season. With Williams likely sidelined for 2008 as well, Graham has a chance to emerge a fantasy RB1, but for now, he’s an RB2 on draft day. Warrick Dunn returns to Tampa Bay, and Michael Bennett is back, but both at best are RB5s, either as handcuffs to Graham or options to steal a few touchdowns during the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Joey Galloway continues to deliver solid numbers. He remains Garica’s best option and is a solid, if not surprising, WR2 at age 36. Ike Hilliard scored only one TD but caught 62 passes for 722 yards in 2007 — you could do worse at WR5. Antonio Bryant comes in from San Francisco with numbers similar to Hilliard’s; unless the two cannibalize each other’s stats, Bryant also is worth a shot as a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Alex Smith has emerged as a competent NFL tight end, scoring three touchdowns and amassing 385 yards on 32 receptions. He’s not an elite fantasy TE yet, but a solid reserve to select on draft day.

KICKER: With 118 points and an 84.8 percent success rate for field goals, Matt Bryant was near the top tier of NFL kickers in 2007. He’s still just near that top tier, meaning he’s a low-end K1 or a reserve for 2008.

Posted on 19th July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »