2008 August - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for August, 2008

Cincinnati no longer Johnson-ville

The Rudi Johnson era is over in Cincinnati. The Chad Johnson era remains, though please don’t make me call it something else.

The releasing of Rudi seemed inevitable, and I know I didn’t have Chris Perry on my fantasy radar, but I’m wondering if the Bengals’ offense is going to struggle with even less depth in its running game. Rudi’s career probably isn’t over, but if Shaun Alexander can’t be picked up by another team, Johnson’s immediate prospects don’t look that good.

And Chad changing his name to “Chad Javon Ocho Cinco” completely leaves me at a loss for words. I saw one writer’s suggestion of what the team should do in response: Change is number to 87.

Posted on 31st August 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Kyle IR

The latest bad news out of Baltimore is that quarterback Kyle Boller might have a serious shoulder injury and might miss the season. With Troy Smith recovering from tonsillitis, rookie Joe Flacco might be pressed into starting Week 1.

Is this the best thing for the Ravens? Surely, not having Boller might be a plus, but does Flacco need to be thrown into the fire right away? Some rookie quarterbacks on struggling teams impress in such situations, others flail and never recover (think Alex Smith and David Carr). Flacco has average receivers (at best) to target, a featured running back who’s not that healthy, and a division with teams that can put up a lot of points. Smith theoretically was the transition guy, and he may return rather soon.

At some point, Flacco will need to get that experience, whether it’s later this season or next year. But if the Ravens are going to struggle, let them struggle with someone else at quarterback.

Posted on 28th August 2008
Under: Bye weeks | No Comments »

That and this

I’ve been so busy preparing fantasy rankings and previews for this blog, as well as preparing for my own drafts, I haven’t written much on the latest NFL news. Let’s catch up, shall we?

– Alex Smith is on the verge of officially becoming another No. 1 overall bust. The 49ers announced J.T. O’Sullivan will start at quarterback instead of Smith. Maybe Smith needs Urban Meyer as coach again, because it’s starting look like his college success that led to him being drafted No. 1 was a serious aberration.

– In more quarterback news, Kyle Orton has replaced Rex Grossman leading the Bears’ offense. I don’t think Orton is going to save the Bears, but he can’t do any worse than Wrecks, can he?

– Cincinnati was nervous enough about the health of Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh that it brought back Chris Henry. He needs to make the most of the opportunity, and he better not fulfill the high odds that he’ll be the next Bengal to be arrested. One bit of fantasy advice: Make sure you know which Chris Henry you are drafting, either the Bengal or the Titan.

– Steven Jackson ended his holdout after the Rams gave him a new contract. Kudos to Jackson for getting the deal he deserves, but after the Larry Johnson debacle of last year, don’t you think star RBs would think twice before holding out?

– It seems like many quarterbacks have been nursing injuries this preaseason, including Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck. Just a hunch: Running backs will be putting up more fantasy points in September.

Posted on 23rd August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all, NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | 5 Comments »

Gene Upshaw dies

I turned on my computer this morning and discovered NFL players union head Gene Upshaw died at age 63 of pancreatic cancer.

One’s first instinct might be to wonder what’s going to happen to the union and player-owner negotations now that Upshaw has passed (particularly after there was an effort among the players to remove him). I wondered that, too, but for now, we should just honor the man — the All-Pro offensive lineman, the wearer of a few Super Bowl Rings, the Hall of Famer, the union chief who helped bring prosperity to the players and ultimately to the league. No matter what you think of him, Upshaw will be missed.

Posted on 21st August 2008
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Defenses/special teams

Another position you shouldn’t sweat, the trend I noticed as I assembled the defense rankings was the top consensus tier extends to No. 11 with the Steelers. There’s a small second tier to about No. 16; after that are strictly bye-week defenses. The Chargers were the runaway No. 1 D/ST, followed by the Vikings and Patriots, but the next eight teams are almost interchangeable, further confirming tried and true advice: Wait, wait, wait before you take a defense.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Chargers
2. Vikings
3. Patriots
4. Bears
5. Cowboys
6. Seahawks
7. Packers
8. Jaguars
9. Giants
10. Colts
11. Steelers
12. Buccaneers
13. Titans
14. Bills
15. Ravens
16. Eagles
17. Cardinals
18. Jets
19. Broncos
20. Raiders
21. Browns
22. Panthers
23. Lions
24. Redskins
25. Saints
26. Texans
27. Chiefs
28. Bengals
29. 49ers
30. Rams
31. Dolphins
32. Falcons

Posted on 19th August 2008
Under: Bye weeks | No Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Kickers

One thing I do every year with kickers is compute what the point differential between the top-scoring kicker and 12th place. In 2007, the top 12 kickers were separated by 21 points — less than 1.5 points per week. I do this to remind myself not to sweat the choice of a kicker. Yes, some are better than others, but many in that top 12 are interchangeable.

Note three teams — the Seahawks, Saints and Chiefs — have two kickers in competition this August. I have listed both in the same rank; if no decision has been made, avoid them on draft day, but keep an eye on the winners (at least in Seattle and New Orleans) during the season as possible pickups.

KICKERS
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys
2. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
3. Shayne Graham, Bengals
4. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
5. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
6. Mason Crosby, Packers
7. Josh Brown, Rams
8. Rob Bironas, Titans
9. Phil Dawson, Browns
10. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
11. Robbie Gould, Bears
12. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
13. Jeff Reed, Steelers
14. Kris Brown, Texans
15. David Akers, Eagles
16. Jason Hanson, Lions
17. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
18. Matt Stover, Ravens
19. John Kasay, Panthers
20. Brandon Coutu or Olindo Mare, Seahawks
21. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
22. Shaun Suisham, Redskins
23. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
24. Jason Elam, Falcons
25. Taylor Mehlhalff or Martin Gramatica, Saints
26. Mike Nugent, Jets
27. Rian Lindell, Bills
28. Joe Nedney, 49ers
29. Matt Prater, Broncos
30. Sebastian Jankiowski, Raiders
31. Connor Barth or Nick Novak, Chiefs
32. Dan Carpenter, Dolphins

Posted on 18th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Tight ends

I read in one publication that it’s a down year for tight ends. Maybe I just remember the old days when it was Tony Gonzalez, Wesley Walls and the rest of the league, but I still feel TEs are deeper than ever. In this list, Ben Watson is ranked 14th — if waiting on a tight end while drafting better players at other positions, he’s still a good option as your TE1.

The first tier on this list runs to about Dallas Clark at No. 6; the second tier extends to Watson, with plenty of sleeper potential among the TE2s. You would have to really try not to draft a decent tight end in 2008.

TIGHT ENDS
1. Antonio Gates, Chargers
2. Kellen Winslow, Browns
3. Jason Witten, Cowboys
4. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins
6. Dallas Clark, Colts
7. Todd Heap, Ravens
8. Heath Miller, Steelers
9. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
10. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
11. Vernon Davis, 49ers
12. Alge Crumpler, Titans
13. Owen Daniels, Texans
14. Ben Watson, Patriots
15. Greg Olsen, Bears
16. Donald Lee, Packers
17. Zach Miller, Raiders
18. L.J. Smith, Eagles
19. Randy McMichael, Rams
20. Ben Utecht, Bengals
21. Desmond Clark, Bears
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
23. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
24. Kevin Boss, Giants
25. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
26. John Carlson, Seahawks
27. Chris Baker, Jets
28. Eric Johnson, Saints
29. Jeff King, Panthers
30. Dustin Keller, Jets
31. Robert Royal, Bills
32. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
33. Marcus Pollard, Patriots
34. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
35. David Martin, Dolphins
36. Bo Scaife, Titans
37. Michael Gaines, Lions
38. Daniel Graham, Broncos
39. Billy Miller, Saints
40. Jacob Tamme, Colts
41. Ben Hartsock, Falcons
42. Sean McCugh, Lions
43. Jeb Putzier, Seahawks

Posted on 18th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Wide receivers

The first tier of receivers after Randy Moss is impressive. Running from Terrell Owens to Marques Colston, a player from this group is a good start to your WR corps. It becomes a little dicier after Colston, but not too bad — Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress and Anquan Boldin are worth the risk despite injury concerns, Steve Smith was only dropped down because of the two-game suspension he’ll be serving for punching a teammate, and Torry Holt can still deliver fantasy numbers after all these years.

The next tier of WRs begins around Greg Jennings, where the talent level begins to drop off. If you can get your two starting WRs before then, great; though there are some solid selections after No. 16, none is quite a sure thing as the players ranked ahead of them.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
3. Braylon Edwards, Browns
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts
5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
6. Andre Johnson, Texans
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
8. Marques Colston, Saints
9. Chad Johnson, Bengals
10. Plaxico Burress, Giants
11. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
12. Steve Smith, Panthers
13. Torry Holt, Rams
14. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
15. Wes Welker, Patriots
16. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
17. Greg Jennings, Packers
18. Roy Williams, Lions
19. Roddy White, Falcons
20. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
21. Lee Evans, Bills
22. Calvin Johnson, Lions
23. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
24. Hines Ward, Steelers
25. Chris Chambers, Chargers
26. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
27. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
28. Santana Moss, Redskins
29. Laveranues Coles, Jets
30. Marvin Harrison, Colts
31. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
32. Donald Driver, Packers
33. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
34. Reggie Brown, Eagles
35. Javon Walker, Raiders
36. Jerry Porter, Jaguars
37. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
38. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
39. Derrick Mason, Ravens
40. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
41. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
42. Bryant Johnson, 49ers
43. Ronald Curry, Raiders
44. Donte Stallworth, Browns
45. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
46. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
47. Sidney Rice, Vikings
48. Drew Bennett, Rams
49. D.J. Hackett, Panthers
50. Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
51. Mark Clayton, Ravens
52. Kevin Walter, Texans
53. Justin Gage, Titans
54. Isaac Bruce, 49ers
55. David Patten, Saints
56. Darrell Jackson, Broncos
57. Ernest Wilford, Dolphins
58. Marty Booker, Bears
59. Amani Toomer, Giants
60. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
61. James Jones, Packers
62. Antwan Randle El, Redskins
63. Shaun McDonald, Lions
64. Laurent Robinson, Falcons
65. Robert Meachem, Saints
66. James Hardy, Bills
67. Arnaz Battle, 49ers
68. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
69. Roydell Williams, Titans
70. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
71. Steve Smith, Giants
72. Devin Hester, Bears
73. Devin Thomas, Redskins
74. Nate Washington, Steelers
75. Deion Branch, Seahawks
76. Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers
77. Donnie Avery, Rams
78. Terry Glenn, Cowboys
79. Devery Henderson, Saints
80. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
81. Mike Furrey, Lions
82. Limas Sweed, Steelers
83. Keary Colbert, Broncos
84. Justin McCareins, Titans
85. Early Doucet, Cardinals
86. Andre Caldwell, Bengals
87. Joe Jurevicius, Browns
88. Andre Davis, Texans
89. Bobby Wade, Vikings
90. Malcolm Kelly, Redskins
91. Matt Jones, Jaguars
92. Mark Bradley, Bears
93. Dennis Northcutt, Jaguars
94. Chad Jackson, Patriots
95. Demetrius Williams, Ravens
96. Drew Carter, RAiders
97. Josh Reed, Bills
98. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
99. Devard Darling, Chiefs
100. Jacoby Jones, Texans
101. Michael Clayton, Buccaneers
102. Doug Gabriel, Bengals
103. Mario Manningham, Giants
104. Sam Hurd, Cowboys
105. Brandon Lloyd, Bears
106. Brad Smith, Jets
107. Sinorice Moss, Giants
108. Troy Williamson, Jaguars
109. Lavelle Hawkins, Titans

Posted on 15th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 14 Comments »

Fantasy rankings: Running backs

Moving to running backs, the top five are quite strong, with Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook and Steven Jackson nearly interchangeable. After Marion Barber, it becomes sketchier, with Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Clinton Portis injury risks, Frank Gore coming off a season from hell and Ryan Grant and Marshawn Lynch with a season or less of fantasy success under their belts. The next tier — the RB2 — are much stronger than in past years, and even the RB3s look good (for example, how bad would it be to have Edgerrin James as your bye week backup?). Perhaps all the chaos among the league’s RBs last season has created a deeper stable of talent.

RUNNING BACKS
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Joseph Addai, Colts
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
5. Steven Jackson, Rams
6. Marion Barber III, Cowboys
7. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
8. Clinton Portis, Redskins
9. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
10. Frank Gore, 49ers
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
13. Willis McGahee, Ravens
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
16. Jamal Lewis, Browns
17. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Willie Parker, Steelers
20. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
21. Darren McFadden, Raiders
22. Michael Turner, Falcons
23. LenDale White, Titans
24. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
25. Julius Jones, Seahawks
26. Thomas Jones, Jets
27. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
29. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
30. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
31. Kevin Smith, Lions
32. Matt Forte, Bears
33. Chester Taylor, Vikings
34. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
35. Selvyn Young, Broncos
36. Justin Fargas, Raiders
37. Felix Jones, Cowboys
38. Deuce McAllister, Saints
39. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
40. Ahman Green, Texans
41. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
42. Kenny Watson, Bengals
43. Chris Johnson, Titans
44. Tatum Bell, Lions
45. Ladell Betts, Redskins
46. Sammy Morris, Patriots
47. Leon Washington, Jets
48. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
49. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
50. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
51. Chris Brown, Texans
52. Pierre Thomas, Saints
53. Brandon Jackson, Packers
54. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
55. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
56. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
57. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
58. Adrian Peterson, Bears
59. Ray Rice, Ravens
60. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
61. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
62. Jacob Hester, Chargers
63. Fred Jackson, Bills
64. Derrick Ward, Giants
65. Kevin Jones, Bears
66. Michael Bush, Raiders
67. Brian Leonard, Rams
68. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
69. Jesse Chatman, Jets
70. Chris Perry, Bengals
71. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
72. Ryan Torain, Broncos
73. Andre Hall, Broncos
74. Darren Sproles, Chargers
75. Jason Wright, Browns
76. Chris Taylor, Texans
77. Chris Henry, Titans
78. Michael Pittman, Broncos
79. LaMont Jordan, Patriots
80. Reuben Droughns, Giants
81. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
82. DeShawn Wynn, Packers
83. Michael Bennett, Buccaneers
84. Brian Calhoun, Lions
85. Steve Slaton, Texans
86. Mike Hart, Colts
87. Greg Jones, Jaguars
88. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
89. Kenny Irons, Bengals
90. Antonio Pittman, Rams
91. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
92. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
93. Aaron Stecker, Saints
94. J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
95. Kenton Keith, Colts
96. Leonard Weaver, Seahawks
97. Jalen Parmele, Dolphins
98. Darius Walker, Texans
99. Garrett Wolfe, Bears
100. Michael Robinson, 49ers
101. Tony Hunt, Eagles
102. Dwayne Wright, Bills
103. Tashard Choice, Cowboys
104. Chauncey Washington, Jaguars
105. Jason Snelling, Falcons

Posted on 15th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks

Here is the first segment of updated fantasy rankings by position, beginning with quarterbacks. I like pulling in rankings from several different sources, which I did here (seven, to be exact), and I also added the rankings I compiled from the spring, tweaking when needed as circumstances changed or to fix any “what was I thinking” moments. I took the average of all those sources, made any additional tweaks to account for injuries or waivers, and voila — my rankings were complete.

Looking at the rankings, I’m impressed with the quality of the top QBs. You can be mostly confident starting any of the top 10, with maybe the exception of Donovan McNabb and his injury risk (but healthy, he can be a fantasy machine). What’s also impressive is how many of the QB2 have upside. Philip Rivers, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, and even Vince Young, have the potential for breakout fantasy seasons, but you can keep them waiting in the wings as your backup QB.

Finally, I arbitrarily placed Brett Favre at No. 18 (he wasn’t in any fantasy publications — remember, he retired!), which was where he was around last preseason before his surprise year.
He won’t repeat his 2007 stats, not on a new team, not on a lesser team, and not at his age.

QUARTERBACKS
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
6. Derek Anderson, Browns
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
9. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
10. Jay Cutler, Broncos
11. Eli Manning, Giants
12. David Garrard, Jaguars
13. Marc Bulger, Rams
14. Philip Rivers, Chargers
15. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
16. Matt Schaub, Texans
17. Vince Young, Titans
18. Brett Favre, Jets
19. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Jon Kitna, Lions
22. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
23. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
24. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
25. Trent Edwards, Bills
26. Tavaris Jackson, Vikings
27. Alex Smith, 49ers
28. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
29. Rex Grossman, Bears
30. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
31. Kyle Boller, Ravens
32. Chris Redman, Falcons
33. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
34. Kellen Clemens, Jets
35. Matt Ryan, Falcons
36. Joe Flacco, Ravens
37. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
38. Kyle Orton, Bears
39. Josh McCown, Dolphins
40. J.P. Losman, Bills
41. Shaun Hill, 49ers
42. John Beck, Dolphins
43. Chad Henne, Dolphins
44. Todd Collins, Redskins
45. Gus Frerotte, Vikings
46. Brian Griese, Buccaneers
47. Brady Quinn, Browns
48. Damon Huard, Chiefs
49. Troy Smith, Ravens
50. Brian Brohm, Packers
51. Drew Stanton, Lions

Posted on 14th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »