2008 October - Da NFL Blog - Fantasy football advice and NFL musings that would make Coach Ditka proud

Archive for October, 2008

Week 9 picks

I had a decent week last week, and would have been better if not for one bad snap …

WEEK 9
BUFFALO over N.Y. Jets
CHICAGO over Detroit
Jacksonville over CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay over KANSAS CITY
Houston over MINNESOTA
Arizona over ST. LOUIS
TENNESSEE over Green Bay
DENVER over Miami
N.Y. GIANTS over Dallas
Atlanta over OAKLAND
Philadelphia over SEATTLE
New England over INDIANAPOLIS
WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh
Last week: 10-4 Season: 73-45

Posted on 31st October 2008
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Post-Week 8 rankings

Plenty of big drops this week, but none as big as the Jaguars, who fall nine notches to No. 18. Baltimore takes the biggest leap, from No. 20 to No. 13.

1. Titans (7-0)
2. Giants (6-1)
3. Patriots (5-2)
4. Redskins (6-2)
5. Steelers (5-2)
6. Eagles (4-3)
7. Panthers (6-2)
8. Buccaneers (5-3)
9. Bills (5-2)
10. Cowboys (5-3)
11. Packers (4-3)
12. Bears (4-3)
13. Ravens (4-3)
14. Cardinals (4-3)
15. Saints (4-4)
16. Broncos (4-3)
17. Falcons (4-3)
18. Jaguars (3-4)
19. Colts (3-4)
20. Jets (4-3)
21. Dolphins (3-4)
22. Texans (3-4)
23. Browns (3-4)
24. Chargers (3-5)
25. Vikings (3-4)
26. Rams (2-5)
27. Seahawks (2-5)
28. Raiders (2-5)
29. 49ers (2-6)
30. Chiefs (1-6)
31. Bengals (0-8)
32. Lions (0-7)

Posted on 30th October 2008
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Week 8 redux

The Tennessee Titans are the last undefeated team in the league and clearly have been the best team in NFL at the midpoint of the season. But what has amazed me is that they have achieved their 7-0 record not only in a tough division (yes, the other three teams are 3-4, but they might be the best 3-4 teams in the league), but also with Kerry Collins as their quarterback. Are these Titans reminiscent of the the 2000 Ravens, who had a great defense and a competent enough offense to win a Super Bowl? We’ll see how the next three months go.

– The Cowboys stopped the bleeding by earning a hard-fought victory over Tampa Bay. But will Sunday’s game against the Giants set them back? I’m not sure; after all, has this Dallas team forgotten how New York took them out of the playoffs last year? If the Cowboys have and they lose to the Giants, I doubt they’ll recover in time to make the playoffs.

– The London game didn’t suck this year! I was actually somewhat stunned there was as much offense as there was. The Saints needed that victory badly to stay in striking distance in the NFC South. The Chargers aren’t in the best shape, but 9-7 might win the AFC West, so they better figure out how to win, soon.

– Never underestimate the value of a long snapper after the Steelers’ loss. To recap, their emergency long snapper sailed a punt snap out of the end zone for a safety that tied the game. The Giants drove the ensuing possession for a touchdown and won the game. How bad would it be if Pittsburgh misses out on a playoff bye because of that one bad snap.

– Finally, though the 49ers lost, Mike Singletary might be exactly what that team needs. They are bye this week and get Arizona on Nov. 10 — think his message will sink in by then? The Cardinals should be worried.

Posted on 30th October 2008
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Week 8 fantasy preview

The fantasy season is almost halfway complete. Who would have thought seven weeks ago that Philip Rivers, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown and Aaron Rodgers would be among the top fantasy players at this point of the season?

SMART STARTS
— Andre Johnson, WR, Texans:
He’s been on a roll the past few games, and with Houston surging, that roll will continue with another 100-yard game and perhaps a TD against the Bengals.

— Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: This is almost identical advice to what I recommended for Carolina’s Steve Smith last week — if the Panthers get into a shootout, Delhomme will benefit. Facing Arizona, expect a shootout which leads to 300 yards passing and 2-3 TDs for Delhomme.

— Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Mike Nolan is gone, J.T. O’Sullivan is proving why it took so long for him to become a starting NFL quarterback, and San Francisco is facing an even worse team in Seattle. The Niners will go back to doing what the do best – hand the ball off to Gore, who should top 100 yards and score a touchdown against the Seahawks.

A RESTFUL NIGHT OF SLEEPERS
— Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens:
McGahee is starting to get back into a groove after early injuries. He’s still nursing a knee, he’s expected to play, and he will enjoy a good matchup Sunday against the Raiders.

— Brett Favre, QB, Jets: Why is it any game against the Chiefs inspire sleeper potential for their opponent? Favre will rebound after last week’s rough game and throw a couple touchdowns against Kansas City.

— Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: Why is it any game against the Lions inspire sleeper potential for their opponent? Campbell is having a QB1 season, and he’ll find success against Detroit.

NOT GOING THERE
— Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: Brown has impressed this season after returning from knee injury, but the Ravens shut him down last week. The Bills may not shut him down as efficiently, but it’s still a bad matchup.

— Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: If conditions in London are like last year, passing will be an adventure. Just a hunch, but San Diego will rely on LaDainian Tomlinson against the Saints, who have their own offensive woes (say it ain’t so, Deuce) that may keep this game low-scoring.

— Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: Harrison came crashing back to this planet last week, catching just one pass for 11 yards. He’ll see little against the Titans’ defense Monday, so don’t start him.

Posted on 24th October 2008
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Week 8 picks

I’m in a pick’em league which uses spread and confidence rankings, and I took a bath last week thanks to too many close games and upsets. But straight up, I amazingly was 9-5. Hopefully it will be a better week all around, though there are some tough matchups to call, and I’ve picked a lot of home teams.

WEEK 8
BALTIMORE over Oakland
CAROLINA over Arizona
DALLAS over Tampa Bay
Washington over DETROIT
Buffalo over MIAMI
NEW ENGLAND over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS over San Diego
N.Y. JETS over Kansas City
PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta
JACKSONVILLE over Cleveland
HOUSTON over Cincinnati
PITTSBURGH over N.Y. Giants
SAN FRANCISCO over Seattle
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis
Last week: 9-5 Season: 63-41

Posted on 24th October 2008
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Week 7 redux

I’m finally regaining my bearings after being on vacation for a few days and after a nutty NFL Sunday. I’m trying to figure out which supposed Super Bowl contender (at least in the preseason) is in more trouble: The Colts or the Cowboys. Sure, Dallas is self-destructing, but Indy seemed to be getting its act together before getting drubbed by the Packers. The Cowboys will recover, while the Colts were recovering until Sunday. Both are in tough divisions and can’t afford to fall too far behind, but Dallas also must contend with and loaded NFC South that will compete for wild-card berths. Tony Romo is now saying he’s out until mid-November.

The verdict: The Colts are in more trouble. But the Cowboys will surely be more distracted for the rest of the season. Maybe neither will make the playoffs …

— Mike Nolan became the second coaching casualty this season when the 49ers fired him Monday. If Alex Smith had better use of his shoulder, I’m sure he would have raised his arms in celebration. The sad thing about the Niners: This team might be better than last year.

— Another team that seemingly had recovered then stunk Sunday: San Diego. How is it that the best three teams in the AFC are Tennessee, Buffalo and Pittsburgh?

— Congratulations to the Bears for not blowing another victory. They could easily be 6-1 right now.

Posted on 22nd October 2008
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Post-Week 7 rankings

Just got back from a small vacation, but did manage to watch some NFL on Sunday. I’ll reiterate an earlier observation — December is going to be a lot of fun during the playoff crunch if there are like 20 teams battling for a few playoff spots. Tenessee remains No. 1, Detroit remains No. 32. After dropping the farthest last weed, Carolina makes the biggest jump, seven spots; San Diego takes the biggest tumble, from No. 8 to No. 16.

1. Titans (7-0)
2. Steelers (5-1)
3. Buccaneers (5-2)
4. Giants (5-1)
5. Bills (5-1)
6. Patriots (5-2)
7. Redskins (5-2)
8. Eagles (3-3)
9. Jaguars (3-3)
10. Panthers (5-2)
11. Cardinals (4-2)
12. Falcons (4-2)
13. Colts (3-3)
14. Cowboys (4-3)
15. Packers (4-3)
16. Chargers (3-4)
17. Bears (4-3)
18. Broncos (4-3)
19. Saints (3-4)
20. Ravens (3-3)
21. Jets (3-3)
22. Texans (2-4)
23. Vikings (3-4)
24. Rams (2-4)
25. Raiders (2-4)
26. Dolphins (2-4)
27. Browns (2-4)
28. 49ers (2-5)
29. Seahawks (1-5)
30. Chiefs (1-5)
31. Bengals (0-7)
32. Lions (0-6)

Posted on 21st October 2008
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Week 7 picks

I actually went 8-6 last week, surprising considering the number of upsets that, once again, spoiled many a knockout pool.

WEEK 7
MIAMI over Baltimore
Dallas over ST. LOUIS
CHICAGO over Minnesota
San Diego over BUFFALO
Tennessee over KANSAS CITY
N.Y. GIANTS over San Francisco
Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI
CAROLINA over New Orleans
HOUSTON over Detroit
N.Y Jets over OAKLAND
WASHINGTON over Cleveland
Indianapolis over GREEN BAY
TAMPA BAY over Seattle
NEW ENGLAND over Denver
Last week: 8-6 Season:54-36

Posted on 18th October 2008
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Week 7 fantasy preview

It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys do, in fantasy terms, without Tony Romo (or with an injured Tony Romo trying to throw a ball) the next few weeks. We’ve seen what an unrivaled success the Patriots have been without their star QB …

SMART STARTS
— Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys:
With Romo injured, Barber surely will be called upon to pick up the slack. He’s a must-start anyway, but expect a 100-yard game and 1-2 TDs.

— Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Schaub regained some confidence for not only himself, but also his whole team last week in Houston’s last-second victory. He and the Texans are going to roll over the Lions on Sunday.

— Eli Manning, QB, Giants: This is a good matchup for Manning, looking to rebound after the Giants’ embarrassing loss to Cleveland on Monday night. He’ll be good for 250 yards and a couple touchdowns.

DECENT SOMNAMBULANCE
— Jeff Garcia, QB, Buccaneers: He might be a stretch as a sleeper, but against the pitiful Seahawks, it’s good matchup. His yardage might not be that impressive, but three TDs are possible.

— Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: If Carolina and New Orleans forget about defense, Smith could explode for his biggest game of the season.

— Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots: After struggling a bit last week, Cassel will face Denver’s less-than-stellar defense. He might not lead the Pats to victory, but in a shootout, he’ll put up good fantasy numbers.

BEHIND IN THE POLLS
— Kellen Winslow, TE, Browns:
He’s expected to play after missing last week because of an undisclosed illness. But will he be effective after that time off? Against the Redskins? Rest him this week.

— Patrick Crayton, WR, Cowboys: Here’s the other side of the Romo coin: If Barber gets the ball more, and Brad Johnson throws to Terrell Owens to help salve any ego issues T.O. might be feeling, Crayton will be the odd fantasy man out. Oh, one other thing — Dallas now has Roy Williams to line up on the other side of Owens.

— Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Cincinnati is going with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback again. At Pittsburgh, that’s going to result in a subpar fantasy day for Ocho Cinco, who might be wishing he held out.

Posted on 17th October 2008
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Post-Week 6 rankings

These might have been the most difficult rankings for me to compile. With so many upsets, and three good teams bye, sorting through who’s moving up and down has been tricky. The Titans, Steelers and Bills moved higher without even playing; Buffalo even ended up with the week’s highest jump, five spots, thanks to so many upsets of the teams directly in front of it. Carolina takes the week’s biggest plunge, eight spots.

1. Titans (5-0)
2. Steelers (4-1)
3. Buccaneers (4-2)
4. Giants (4-1)
5. Bills (4-1)
6. Colts (3-3)
7. Cowboys (4-2)
8. Chargers (3-3)
9. Eagles (3-3)
10. Patriots (4-2)
11. Jaguars (3-3)
12. Broncos (4-2)
13. Redskins (4-2)
14. Saints (3-3)
15. Jets (3-2)
16. Cardinals (4-2)
17. Panthers (4-2)
18. Falcons (4-2)
19. Bears (3-3)
20. Packers (3-3)
21. Vikings (3-3)
22. Dolphins (2-3)
23. Browns (2-3)
24. Texans (1-4)
25. 49ers (2-4)
26. Ravens (2-3)
27. Seahawks (1-4)
28. Rams (1-4)
29. Raiders (1-4)
30. Chiefs (1-4)
31. Bengals (0-6)
32. Lions (0-5)

Posted on 15th October 2008
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