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Archive for July, 2009

Fantasy preview: Carolina

The Panthers demonstrated last season that a running back-by-committee can not only work for fantasy owners, but produce crazy stats. But can they repeat the RBBC success in 2009?

Quarterback: As the Panthers shifted from a passing team to a running team, Jake Delhomme saw his numbers suffer even though he was healthy all season. Though he still has Steve Smith to throw to, consider Delhomme as nothing more than a QB2 this season.

Running backs: DeAngelo Williams lived up to his potential (finally) and Jonathan Stewart scored 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. They enter 2009 as an RB1 and low-end RB2 on draft day, but I don’t think Williams will enjoy the same success as last season. He’ll top 1,000 yards and score 10 touchdowns — clearly RB1 territory — but won’t repeat 1,515 and 18. In the meantime, Stewart’s numbers will increase, but not quite enough to risk him as your top running back. After all, this is a RBBC; proceed with caution.

Wide receivers: Smith is still a WR1 and Delhomme’s favorite target, and he will continue to benefit from the successful running game. However, the days of Smith being one of the top three WRs in the league are over. Muhsin Muhammad returned to Carolina put up respectable numbers; think of him as an low-end WR4 for 2009.

Tight ends: Jeff King highlights a TEBC (tight end-by-committee), and he caught only 21 passes and one touchdown. That’s barely TE3 territory, meaning you can avoid Carolina tight ends on draft day.

Kicker: John Kasay scored 130 points thanks to Carolina’s successful offense, and though he may not have the booming leg of his youth, he’ll still produce points on this team. Consider him a low-end K1.

Posted on 29th July 2009
Under: Bye weeks | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Tampa Bay

The Bucs’ offense sputtered last year, and this season might not be much better. The questions start at quarterback and continue through the offense.

Quarterbacks: Byron Leftwich? Josh Freeman? Luke McCown? Does it matter? No — whoever wins the starting job is nothing more than a QB3.

Running backs: The Bucs signed Derrick Ward in the offseason, and he’ll step into the featured back role. But Earnest Graham returns after an injury-plagued season and could split carries. And Cadillac Williams might finally be healthy for a whole season. This situation looks destined for a RBBC, and even with the questionable passing game, don’t count on Ward as anything more than an RB3, Graham as an RB4 and Williams as a free-agent pickup if he starts vulturing touchdowns.

Wide receivers: Antonio Bryant put up solid WR2 numbers last year, but can he repeat those stats with the unsettled QB situation? I doubt it, dropping Bryant to a solid WR3 for 2009. Michael Clayton will start on the other side, but at best, he’s a WR5 — and even that’s a stretch.

Tight ends: New addition Kellen Winslow Jr. is incredible when he’s healthy, a bust when he’s not. He’s too good to pass up as a mid-range TE1, but be sure of your backup in case he gets injured. And be aware — Winslow won’t turn in career numbers in this offense.

Kicker: Either Matt Bryant or Mike Nugent will win the kicking job, and the winner might get plenty of field goals in a warm-weather division. Consider whomever emerges as a K2.

Posted on 28th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Atlanta

Perhaps no team was as surprising during the regular season as the Falcons, who went from a team in disarray into a playoff qualifier. Atlanta also exploded on the fantasy scene and is set for another big year.

Quarterbacks: Matt Ryan was terrific in his rookie season, throwing for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’ll have another quality target in newly acquired Tony Gonzalez, and he’ll improve simply because he has a year of NFL experience under his belt. Some sources have tabbed Ryan as a low-end QB1; I don’t quite think he’ll be that successful, but for sure, he’s a strong QB2 with potential.

Running backs: Michael Turner emerged from the shadow of LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego to put up stellar stats with Atlanta. Some concern exists about how he will hold up after his 376-yard season, but I wouldn’t be worried — expect another season of at least 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Speaking of shadows, Jerious Norwood is now in Turner’s, and though he’s a key special teams player for the Falcons, he’s no better than an RB4 or a Turner handcuff on the fantasy front.

Wide receivers: Roddy White didn’t miss a beat when Ryan took over at QB, catching 88 passes for 1,382 yards and seven touchdowns. Those are WR1 numbers, and White should repeat those stats and possibly even improve if Gonzalez takes some of the defenisve pressure. Michael Jenkins has been putting up WR4 numbers for a few seasons, and that’s what you should expect from hin 2009.

Tight ends: The arrival of Gonzalez will be a boon for Ryan, but will it decrease the veteran tight end’s numbers? I’m thinking no, but I wouldn’t tab him as the top TE of the draft. Expect at least 80 receptions and seven TDs.

Kicker: After years in Denver, Jason Elam, thought to be on the downturn of his carrer, arrived in Atlanta and scored 129 points while converting 94 percent of his field goals. With the Falcons’ offense, in a domed stadium, he’s a K1 for sure, maybe a top-five kicker.

Posted on 27th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy preview: New Orleans

Shifting to the NFC South, no team in the conference might be a potential fantasy bonanza as the Saints. If only Reggie Bush can stay healthy for an entire season …

Quarterback: Drew Brees enters 2009 as the top fantasy quarterback after 5,069-yard, 34-touchdown 2008. Topping 5,000 might be a stretch, but the Saints are now primarily a passing team behind his success. Expect 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, and don’t be afraid to take him in the late first/early second round.

Running backs: Bush is coming off knee surgery and a few inconsistent seasons. When he’s healthy, he scores touchdowns (mostly receiving) and gets plenty of receptions, but he’s too much of a risk to rely on as more than an RB3, albeit an RB3 with potential if he avoids injuries. Pierre Thomas stepped in last season and scored nine touchdowns. With Deuce McAllister gone, the Saints will find a way to get both Thomas and Bush the ball, meaning Thomas also is an RB3, with even more potential than Bush.

Wide receivers: Marques Colston’s yards were down last year, and he’s also coming off surgery, but as the top WR in Brees’ offense, he’s still too tempting to pass up as an WR1. Either Lance Moore or Devery Henderson will emerge as the team’s second receiver, but it’s a good bet both, if healthy, could put up WR4 numbers, or even a little better. Monitor both, especially Moore, through training camp.

Tight ends: Jeremy Shockey is coming off a season cut short by injury, and Billy Miller took over and finished 2008 with 45 receptions but only one TD. The two might cannibalize each other’s fantasy prowess, thus rendering each no better than a low-end TE2 on draft day. Pay attention if one, particularly Shockey, pulls ahead in September.

Kicker: Garrett Hartley enters the season as the full-time starter after the Saints’ kicking shuffle last season. He scored 67 points over eight games to finish 2008. Double that, consider he plays in the division with best kicking conditions in the league, and you’ll realize why he’s being seen as a top-five kicker, one that might fly under the radar on draft day.

Posted on 18th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: St. Louis

Let’s be brutally honest: The Rams are a mess, and their offense worsened in the offseason after the departures of Orlando Pace and Torry Holt. Can St. Louis’ offense turn things around in 2009? That answer might hinge on Steven Jackson’s health.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger’s decline from an elite fantasy QB to an afterthought hasn’t been pretty. Even if he stays healthy this year, I don’t seeing him rebound to his 2006 numbers. You could take a chance on him as a low-end QB2, but realistically, expect another QB3 season from this fading fantasy star.

Running backs: Jackson has played only 12 games the last two seasons and has not been as effective when he does play as he was in his monster 2006 campaign. Still, I don’t think you can let him fall out of the first round. He still has the potential for 1,200 yards rushing and 70 receptions. Those numbers are too good to pass up late in the first round. Draft him as your top RB if he’s available after about the No. 10 overall pick, and hold your breath.

Wide receivers: With the departure of Holt, Donnie Avery becomes the featured receiver. He put up respectable numbers last season as the Rams’ No. 2 receiver, and should improve those stats in 2009. He’s a solid WR3 with potential — again, if Bulger stays healthy. New acquisition Laurent Robinson and rookie Keenan Burton could approach Avery’s stats from 2008, but neither is a sure enough bet to risk on draft day.

Tight ends: Randy McMichael missed most of last season with a broken leg. Healthy, he warrants consideration as a TE2, but on this offense, a lower-tier TE2, if that.

Kicker: Josh Brown is a solid kicker on a bad offense. That said, he’s a K2 with potential if the Rams’ offense suddenly returns to its “Greatest Show on Turf” form. But that’s a big if.

Posted on 14th July 2009
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Seattle

The Seahawks stumbled badly last year, hurt by Matt Hasselbeck’s nagging back injury. He seem to have recovered, and Seattle improved by adding T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but the running game is still weak.

Quarterback: With Housh and the emergence of John Carlson, Hasselbeck may enjoy the best receiving target’s he’s had in years. But can he stay healthy? He might never put up QB1 numbers again (of course, everyone said that about Kurt Warner), but I think he might surprise as a QB2 — if the back holds up.

Running backs: This situation looks like it’s headed for a running back by committee, with Julius Jones getting the bulk of the carries and T.J. Duckett vulturing some touchdowns. We’re still waiting for Jones’ super season, and I doubt 2009 will be it; expect no more than 800 yards and four touchdowns, which is low-end RB3 territory. Duckett scored eight TDs last season, and chances are he’ll get at least five this year, but the yards are simply not there to rely on him as more than an RB4.

Wide receivers: Houshmandzadeh comes over from Cincinnati and shouldn’t miss a beat — 90 receptions and eight touchdowns are realistic, even if Hasselbeck is injured. Nate Burleson is coming off a knee injury, and Deion Branch in not the receiver he once was, so don’t rely on either of them as more than a WR5.

Tight ends: In his rookie season, Carlson caught 55 passes for 627 yards and five touchddowns. He might even improve upon those numbers this season, cementing him as a low-end TE1.

Kicker: Keep an eye during August to see if Brandon Coutu beats out Olindo Mare for the kicking job. Either way, neither is more than a lower-tier K2.

Posted on 13th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: San Francisco

The the first half of the 49ers’ season last year was a train wreck. Mike Nolan was fired, Mike Singletary took over, and the team finished the season 5-4. Expect a more conservative approach to the offense this season under Singletary, but uncertainty still lingers on the fantasy front.

Quarterbacks: Shaun Hill was solid over the second half of last season and has the inside track to start this year. But Alex Smith, whose endured how many offensive coordinators in the last five years, is finally healthy again and promised a chance to compete for the starter’s role. Hill, provided he remains the starter, has been a popular sleeper QB2, but I’m not convinced. I wouldn’t trust either Hill or Smith as more than a QB3 to start the season, though one might emerge as QB2 as 2009 progresses.

Running backs: After 2006, Frank Gore was supposed to be the next super-elite fantasy running back. After two lackluster years, he’s still viewed by some as the next super-elite fantasy running back. This year, the thinking is Gore will benefit most from Singletary’s plans. Maybe he will, but I’m not confident enough to take him in the top five overall. He’s an RB1 for sure, but a lower-end RB1. Rookie Glen Coffee is the likely backup; he’s probably only worth drafting as insurance if you take Gore.

Wide receivers: Isaac Bruce is still delivering at age 36, but his production will drop with the arrival of rookie Michael Crabtree. Expect Bruce to be nothing more than a WR4, with perhaps a little more value in PPR leagues. Crabtree may make the most impact of any rookie receiver this season, but don’t over-reach for him on draft day; look at him as a WR3 with upside.

Tight ends: Vernon Davis played all 16 games last season, but his numbers dropped from 2007. Some pundits think he might be primed for a breakout season; others think he’ll be a bust again. I don’t think he’ll be a bust, but don’t draft him higher than a mid-to-low-end TE2.

Kicker: Joe Nedney scored 121 points last year and made 87.9 percent of his field goals. He’ll again be a strong K2 or even a low-end K1 on draft day.

Posted on 12th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Arizona

Moving to the NFC West, the Cardinals surprised just about everybody by reaching, and almost winning, the Super Bowl. The offense became a fantasy machine, but can it stay that way with continued Anquan Boldin trade rumors and 38-year-old Kurt Warner at quarterback?

Quarterbacks:
Warner played all 16 games last season, a surprise given his injury history over the past several years. In turn, he threw for 4,583 yards and 30 touchdowns. With the weapons Arizona has at WR, he should put up similar numbers — worthy of a top-five QB1 — if he stays healthy. But given his age and that history, that’s a big if. If your league allows/requires three quarterbacks, and you take Warner, consider drafting Matt Leinart just in case. If Leinart does have to step in, he might not set the world on fire, but with that receiving corps, he shouldn’t stink, either.

Running backs: Arizona let Edgerrin James go during the offseason, then drafted Chris Wells out of Ohio State in the first round. Because the Cardinals are not primarily a running team, Wells will face less pressure to produce in his rookie season. That said, he’s a solid RB3 (maybe even a sleeper low-end RB2) on draft day — he won’t lead the league in rushing, but he’ll approach 1,000 yards and score more than a few TDs. He would score more if not for Tim Hightower, who scored 10 touchdowns last season and might be called upon again near the goal line. I doubt he’ll reach double digits again, and he’s clearly not a yardage back (he only averaged 2.8 yards a carry in 2008), but he’s an RB3/RB4 simply because he will score some touchdowns and catch some passes.

Wide receivers: Steve Breaston caught 77 passes for 1,006 yards and three touchdowns last year yet is the Cardinals’ third-best receiver! The embarrassment of riches might continue this year if Boldin remains with the team. If he does, both he and Larry Fitzgerald (perhaps the top WR on the fantasy draft board) are WR1s, with Breaston a solid WR3. Boldin’s health is always a concern, but he still puts up the numbers when he plays (even if he’s hurt). If Boldin goes, upgrade Breaston to a WR2 and look to Jerehme Urban as a WR5 sleeper pick.

Tight ends: Leonard Pope’s numbers fell badly last year (zero touchdowns), and don’t look for too much improvement from him in 2009. If another tight end emerges during training camp, he might be a sleeper TE2, but more than likely, you’ll avoid Arizona’s tight ends on draft day.

Kicker: Neil Rackers is a solid low-end K1 simply because the Cardinals will score plenty of points.

Posted on 12th July 2009
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Green Bay

Year One without Brett Favre started out all right but skidded into a 6-10 season. Though Aaron Rodgers struggled late in close games, he quickly developed into a legitimate fantasy force, amassing stats Favre hadn’t consistently posted since the 1990s.

Quarterback: Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns in his “rookie” season as a starter. Some cheat sheets have him listed as a top-five QB, though I’m not convinced he’s quite at that level yet. Still, he’s a solid QB1 who might put up similar numbers in 2009.

Running backs: Ryan Grant didn’t turn in the dream season of 2007, yet still finished with 1,203 yards (but only four touchdowns). Still, rely on him as anything more as an RB2. I see Grant’s season going two ways: Either he struggles to reach the end zone again and remains in RB2 territory, or he puts last season behind him and delivers RB1 numbers. If it’s the latter, he’ll be a steal in the middle second or third round, but don’t take the risk any higher. Brandon Jackson is the backup, but he’s not worth the handcuff on draft day — remember, it’s because Jackson didn’t bring it in 2007 that Grant got the chance to shine.

Wide receivers: Greg Jennings’ TDs dropped from 12 to 9 last year, but he exploded in receptions and yards, so much so that he’s a clear WR1. Donald Driver’s numbers dropped a little again, but he remains a solid veteran and a good option at WR3. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are not worth taking on draft day but might be worthy of a in-season pickup, especially if something happens to Jennings or Driver.

Tight ends: Donald Lee’s stats slipped last year as Rodgers found more comfort with his WRs. He’ll score a few touchdowns, but he’s nothing more than a lower-tier TE2 on draft day.

Kicker: Mason Crosby returns as one of the best fantasy kickers in the league. If the Packers score a bunch of points again, as expected, he’ll match last season’s 127 points easy.

Posted on 9th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Minnesota

The Vikings picked up a better quarterback in the offseason, drafted a good receiver and feature perhaps the best fantasy player in the league. Yet, uncertainty surrounds them thanks to their flirtation of signing Brett Favre out of retirement.

Quarterbacks: If he stays healthy, Sage Rosenfels has the potential to turn in a QB2-type season and is a definite improvement over Tavaris Jackson. Given his past injury history, he might be too risky as your backup but a possible bargain as a QB3, unless … Favre does join the team. For the first few games in 2008 with the Jets, Favre picked up where he left off in 2007 until the walls came crashing down with late-season losses and interceptions aplenty. If he does return, remember that he now has an injury history and will still add to his NFL-record interception total. Don’t rely on him as anything more than a low-end QB2, and be ready to bail if necessary.

Running backs: Adrian Peterson is a no-brainer top-three pick. There’s always the concern he might get hurt, given his heavy workload, but that’s a minor concern compared with what he brings to the table. And if does get more involved in the passing game (he only had 21 receptions last year), look out. Chester Taylor is still backing up Peterson, and besides being excellent Peterson insurance, should get enough touches to warrant RB4 or RB5 consideration.

Wide receivers: With either Rosenfels or Favre passing to him, Bernard Berrian will benefit with more receptions, but maybe not enough to push him above a solid WR3. The Vikes drafted Percy Harvin in the first round, and though he won’t be the second coming of Randy Moss, he might be worth a late pick as an WR5. Harvin’s arrival might push Sidney Rice out of the draft; if the rookie doesn’t earn the starting job, Rice is a WR5 at best.

Tight end: Visanthe Shiancoe turned in the best season of his career with 42 receptions, 596 yards and 7 touchdowns. He will benefit from an improved passing game and can be considered a high-end TE2 or even a low-end TE1.

Kicker: Ryan Longwell kicks in a dome on a team that moves the ball but doesn’t pass for many touchdowns. He might reach 127 points again, but he’s still a first-rounder nonetheless.

Posted on 9th July 2009
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »