Pick soon, there’s another Thursday game …

WEEK 11
CAROLINA over Miami
DALLAS over Washington
GREEN BAY over San Francisco
Pittsburgh over KANSAS CITY
N.Y. GIANTS over Atlanta
New Orleans over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo
Indianapolis over BALTIMORE
MINNESOTA over Seattle
Arizona over ST. LOUIS
NEW ENGLAND over N.Y. Jets
Cincinnati over OAKLAND
San Diego over DENVER
Philadelphia over CHICAGO
HOUSTON over Tennessee
Last week: 10-5 Season: 104-40

In the few days since Bill Belichick elected to go for it on fourth down, and subsequently watched his Patriots fall to the Colts, I have come to this conclusion: He was afraid of giving the ball back to Peyton Manning.

How else would you explain the move? If you thought you had a better chance getting one yard than Manning driving 70, you might take that risk. Missing the first down shaved 40 yards off Manning’s drive, but if you were convinced it wouldn’t matter, you might take the risk.

There’s a train of thought that if you can’t get one yard with the game on the line, you don’t deserve to win the football game. Tom Brady and the Patriots just barely mis-executed that play. Had they got it, I’d be leading this week’s redux with Maurice Jones-Drew.

– Before getting to MJD, that Patriots-Colts game might go down as the best since NBC took over the Sunday night game.

– ESPN.com says 10,000 of its fantasy owners lost because Jones-Drew stopped short of a touchdown to run out the clock before a field goal that gave the Jaguars a victory over the Jets. Among those owners: Jones-Drew himself.

I was not one of those 10,000 owners — I lost in a CBS league because of his decision. It’s simply a reminder not to take fantasy football too seriously — no matter how well you prepare, something like this that you can never prepare for can mess you up.

One final thing — should NFL players even be allowed to participate in fantasy football leagues? Just saying …

– Dick Jauron is now the Bills’ ex-coach. What took so long?

– Tom Cable is still coaching the Raiders. What’s taking so long?

– The Titans were six games too late figuring out how to win in 2009, but this resurgence may save Jeff Fisher’s job. Still, that bad start means they will be lucky to finish 8-8.

– Finally, are Denver fans getting nervous? Another quick start, and once again, a slide that allowed the Chargers to achieve a first-place tie. At least this year, the Broncos have time to turn things around. However, I’m guessing they won’t finish better than 9-7.

With many top teams losing, Arizona and Baltimore tie for the week’s biggest jump — each up four spots. The Falcons take the biggest fall, down four.

1. Colts (9-0)
2. Saints (9-0)
3. Vikings (8-1)
4. Bengals (7-2)
5. Patriots (6-3)
6. Steelers (6-3)
7. Cardinals (6-3)
8. Cowboys (6-3)
9. Chargers (6-3)
10. Ravens (5-4)
11. Eagles (5-4)
12. Broncos (6-3)
13. Giants (5-4)
14. Falcons (5-4)
15. Texans (5-4)
16. Dolphins (4-5)
17. Panthers (4-5)
18. Packers (5-4)
19. Jets (4-5)
20. Jaguars (5-4)
21. 49ers (4-5)
22. Bears (4-5)
23. Titans (3-6)
24. Redskins (3-6)
25. Seahawks (4-5)
26. Bills (3-6)
27. Chiefs (2-7)
28. Raiders (2-7)
29. Buccanaeers (1-8)
30. Rams (1-8)
31. Lions (1-8)
32. Browns (1-8)

Hopefully I’ll get the fantasy preview done next week before the Thursday game. Just don’t hold me to that …

SMART STARTS
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Tennessee is resurgent, thanks mostly to another big season from Johnson, who continues to score on long runs. The Titans draw visiting Buffalo and the Bills’ porous run defense. Don’t be surprised if Johnson tops 150 yards and scores two TDs.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: Though Warner has proved he can bounce back after a bad game, there’s no empirical proof (at least none I have) that he can maintain for a second big game at his advanced age. But consider this: The Cardinals are coming off a big victory and play an important NFC West game at home vs. Seattle. Warner’s veteran experience will come through for 275 yards and 2-3 touchdowns.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Jones will be fresh after a bye week, and will be facing Jacksonville, which can’t stop the run. Enough said.

SLEEPY, OH SO SLEEPY
Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders: I’m usually loath to start Raiders, but he’s their best offensive option with a favorable matchup against visiting Kansas City. He’s worth a shot if you got him.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Baltimore is coming off a tough loss and will be looking to rebound. No better team to rebound against than the lowly Browns, who will help Flacco provide some decent stats.

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: Cassel turned in respectable fantasy numbers last week and draws the Raiders this week. We’re at the point of the season where a QB2 is merely a backup, but if you are sitting Eli Manning or Matt Schaub because of a bye, Cassel is a good option.

STEER CLEAR
Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Detroit plays the Vikings, whose line no one has been able to run against this season. Smith won’t either.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals: Admittedly, Benson is a tough sit, but be wary of him on the road against Pittsburgh. He’s had a great comeback year, but he can’t be great every week, and my hunch is this is a week he isn’t.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Another tough sit, but he’s only had a few good games this season. I think Carolina will run the ball against the Falcons, setting Smith up for a game under 50 yards receiving.

It’s a short weeks, so make sure you make picks and set fantasy lineups today.

WEEK 10
SAN FRANCISCO over Chicago
TENNESSEE over Buffalo
New Orleans over ST. LOUIS
MIAMI over Tampa Bay
MINNESOTA over Detroit
N.Y. JETS over Jacksonville
PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
Denver over WASHINGTON
Atlanta over CAROLINA
Kansas City over OAKLAND
Dallas over GREEN BAY
ARIZONA over Seattle
SAN DIEGO over Philadelphia
INDIANAPOLIS over New England
Baltimore over CLEVELAND
Last week: 8-5 Season: 94-35

Before I can even reflect upon Week 9, Week 10 is almost here with the beginning of Thursday games. So, I’ll make this quick …

– What happened to the Packers on Sunday against the Bucs? This was supposed to be their confidence boost after losing to the Vikings, but they couldn’t beat one of the worst teams in the league. And once again, it appears their defense failed them. I believe the Packers are still going to improve on their 6-10 record from last season, but now, only to 8-8.

– The Broncos were exposed as not as good a team as their 6-0 start suggested. Yes, they were playing Pittsburgh, but they barely showed up. The Chargers must be licking their chops — are we seeing an AFC West redux after Denver collapsed last year?

– How long ago do Randy Moss’ ego issues seem? After another spectacular touchdown Sunday, is there any doubt he will retire as the most exciting receiver in NFL history?

– Finally, the Bengals are for real. Their game against the Steelers this weekend will be a showdown.

The top six remained the same this week, and the Falcons climbed back into the top 10. The Chargers, Panthers and Buccaneers tied for the week’s biggest jump (each up three), while the Giants, Ravens and Packers each fell three spots.

1. Colts (8-0)
2. Saints (8-0)
3. Patriots (6-2)
4. Steelers (6-2)
5. Vikings (7-1)
6. Cowboys (6-2)
7. Bengals (6-2)
8. Eagles (5-3)
9. Broncos (6-2)
10. Falcons (5-3)
11. Cardinals (5-3)
12. Chargers (5-3)
13. Giants (5-4)
14. Ravens (4-4)
15. Texans (5-4)
16. Jets (4-4)
17. Dolphins (3-5)
18. Panthers (4-4)
19. Bears (4-4)
20. Packers (4-4)
21. Jaguars (4-4)
22. 49ers (3-5)
23. Bills (3-5)
24. Seahawks (4-4)
25. Titans (2-6)
26. Raiders (2-6)
27. Redskins (2-6)
28. Chiefs (1-7)
29. Buccaneers (1-7)
30. Lions (1-7)
31. Browns (1-7)
32. Rams (1-7)

I might have running backs on the brain: Seven of my nine choices below are RBs. Good luck

SMART STARTS
Matt Forte, RB, Bears: I don’t know if Forte turned a corner last week — though he scored two touchdowns, his average per carry was somewhat weak — but he has a good matchup at home against the Cardinals. He should at least sustain last week’s performance.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Grant gets a good matchup against the Buccaneers, and after Aaron Rodgers got a little beat up against the Vikings last week, the Packers might be inclined to run the ball more. Expect Grant to top 100 yards and score a touchdown.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Backfield-mate Ahmad Bradshaw isn’t 100 percent, quarterback Eli Manning seems rattled, and the Giants host the Chargers, who let Justin Fargas have a decent game last week. If the Giants rely on Jacobs a lot, he might turn in his best game of the season.

SLEEPER ALERT
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans: Walter has fallen off the radar in recent weeks, but with tight Owen Daniels out for the season, he might find himself back in Matt Schaub’s mix.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: Yep, I can’t believe I calling Jones a sleeper, but Seattle is at home against the Lions and their terrible run defense. He could turn in a big week.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: OK, this is the week you start Smith … maybe? Brett Favre is the only good fantasy QB on bye, so Smith will start in most leagues only if an owner is stuck with another second-tier quarterback as his starter. That said, Smith was solid last week against a good Colts defense, and he draws the porous pass defense of Tennessee this week.

BENCHWARMERS
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: I have a hunch Washington will be passing most of the game just to keep up with Atlanta. Add the fact the Redskins generally stink — thus, I think Portis isn’t a good play.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: The rookie will face his biggest test against the Pittsburgh defense on Monday night. This is another game in which the underdog (Denver, in my book) will be passing to keep up, and don’t be surprised if Correll Buckhalter splits carries a little more than usual this week.

Ryan Moats, RB, Texans: Moats was a popular free-agent pickup this week after his impressive game against the Bills in relief of the bumbling Steve Slaton. Even if Slaton doesn’t return to full-time duty, surely he’ll split carries with Moats, who simply isn’t a week-to-week fantasy starter (and definitely isn’t one in Houston). Moats is maybe a low-end RB3 against the Colts, but there are other low-end RB3s more worthy of taking a chance on.

I’m hoping to rebound after a mildly rough 8-5 week. Should have never picked the Packers and Lions …

WEEK 9
ATLANTA over Washington
CHICAGO over Arizona
Baltimore over Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston
NEW ENGLAND over Miami
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City
SEATTLE over Detroit
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina
N.Y. GIANTS over San Diego
SAN FRANCISCO over Tennessee
Dallas over PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh over DENVER
Last week: 8-5 Season: 86-30

Houston coach Gary Kubiak finally had enough of Steve Slaton’s fumbling and benched him in favor of Ryan Moats in the Texans’ victory over the Bills. Was this a one-week experiment, or will Slaton be relegated to platooning the rest of the season?

Fantasy owners might hope Slaton returns, but the Texans need to get serious quickly. They aren’t going to catch the Colts in the AFC South, and 10-6 in the AFC might not be good enough for a wild card (remember, 11-5 didn’t get the Patriots into the playoffs last year). Houston has little margin for error, and Slaton simply is committing too many errors.

The Texans’ bigger problem emerging from Sunday’s victory: Tight end Owen Daniels is out for the season with a torn ACL. If their offense doesn’t adapt, forget about the playoffs.

– Minnesota’s Brett Favre was tremendous in beating the Packers at Lambeau Field. But before heaping too much praise upon Favre, it must be asked, where was the Green Bay defense all game? Aaron Rodgers did what he could to keep the Packers close, only to see the defense let Favre march down for another touchdown.

– The Giants are regressing fast, and even though third place in the NFC East still could get them into the playoffs, they need something to change quickly. Eli Manning was playing so well to start the season but now doesn’t look like he deserves his big contract. And it won’t help that the Chargers are up next.

– Finally, Tom Cable needs to go. Now.