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Fantasy preview: Tampa Bay

If the Buccaneers are seriously in the running to acquire the services of Brett Favre, their fantasy outlook brightens. For now, there is just an aging veteran at quarterback and a running back that might emerge as a fantasy RB1.

QUARTERBACK: Jeff Garcia returns as the Bucs’ starter, and though he is a competent NFL quarterback with quality leadership skills, his days of impressive fantasy stats have long since passed. He’s not even a QB2 — there are far better backups to choose.

RUNNING BACKS: Earnest Graham stepped in for the injured Cadillac Williams last season and scored 10 touchdowns, including at least one in a stretch of six consecutive games in the second half of the season. With Williams likely sidelined for 2008 as well, Graham has a chance to emerge a fantasy RB1, but for now, he’s an RB2 on draft day. Warrick Dunn returns to Tampa Bay, and Michael Bennett is back, but both at best are RB5s, either as handcuffs to Graham or options to steal a few touchdowns during the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Joey Galloway continues to deliver solid numbers. He remains Garica’s best option and is a solid, if not surprising, WR2 at age 36. Ike Hilliard scored only one TD but caught 62 passes for 722 yards in 2007 — you could do worse at WR5. Antonio Bryant comes in from San Francisco with numbers similar to Hilliard’s; unless the two cannibalize each other’s stats, Bryant also is worth a shot as a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Alex Smith has emerged as a competent NFL tight end, scoring three touchdowns and amassing 385 yards on 32 receptions. He’s not an elite fantasy TE yet, but a solid reserve to select on draft day.

KICKER: With 118 points and an 84.8 percent success rate for field goals, Matt Bryant was near the top tier of NFL kickers in 2007. He’s still just near that top tier, meaning he’s a low-end K1 or a reserve for 2008.

Posted on 19th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Seattle

Shaun Alexander is no longer a Seahawk, and though he was a shell of his former self, will his departure turn Seattle’s fantasy fortunes sour, or will Julius Jones step right in?

QUARTERBACK: Probably the only absolutely sure thing in fantasy terms that the Seahawks got, Matt Hasselbeck is coming off his best season ever, with 3,966 yards and 28 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions. Those numbers might be hard to repeat, but 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns are certainly realistic, making Hasselbeck a QB1, though in that second tier behind Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo.

RUNNING BACKS: Julius Jones escaped the RBBC in Dallas and is the main man in Seattle. He’ll have less touchdowns stolen (as he did playing alongside Marion Barber) and might put up the best yardage and TD totals in his career — if he stays healthy, and if he’s not sharing that much time with Maurice Morris and T.J. Duckett. I think Jones is worth a shot as an RB2, but be confident with your RB3 and don’t be afraid to handcuff Morris, who otherwise is an RB4 or RB5. Duckett might see some goal-line TDs, but he’s not worthy to take on draft day.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Deion Branch, Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson provide a solid receiving corps for Hasselbeck, but it’s tricky to decipher who’ll emerge over the other two. I’d go with Branch as a fantasy WR2 — he would have put up better numbers if he played every game. Engram was the beneficiary of Branch’s missed time, with career numbers in receptions, yards and TDs, but I don’t think he’ll quite repeat that and is at best a WR3. Then there’s Burleson, who scored nine touchdowns on just 50 receptions. That might have been a fluke, but a fluke you can’t overlook lower than a WR3.

TIGHT ENDS: With Marcus Pollard gone, Will Heller steps into the starting role. He scored three touchdowns out of 12 receptions last year, but he’s still too much of an unkown to make your starting tight end, though he’s a decent sleeper as a TE2.

KICKER: Olindo Mare takes over for Josh Brown, who went to St. Louis. Mare struggled last year with the Saints, I’m honestly surprised the Seahawks picked him up. He’s a K2 with potential — potential to be a starting fantasy kicker if the Seattle offense continues to roll, or potential to be unemployed by November.

Posted on 15th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: San Francisco

Mike Martz takes over as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, so theoretically the team’s dismal fantasy performances should improve. But will it matter if Alex Smith continues his long journey toward No. 1 overall bust?

QUARTERBACK: Smith missed much of last season, then underwent shoulder surgery but should be ready to go. With Martz coming in, Smith could be viewed as a sleeper QB2. But that’s how he was viewed last year, and the year before. His yards and touchdowns might improve to 2006 levels, but he’s too risky as a backup fantasy QB. Just a hunch, but we might see Shaun Hill before the season is done, even if Smith remains healthy.

RUNNING BACKS: I’ve expressed my skepticism of Frank Gore before, and I’m standing by it — I wouldn’t take him as an RB1. With DeShaun Foster on board as insurance, his rushing numbers might not go up, and remember, three of Gore’s four highest rushing games were in the final three weeks of the season (and he only ran for touchdowns in three games, just one after Week 3). He receiving stats might get better under Martz, but not to Brian Westbrook levels. If you take him as your RB1, be damn sure of your RB2. Foster might steal some TDs from Gore and is a decent handcuff or even an RB4 or 5.

WIDE RECEIVERS:The addition of Isaac Bruce helps a rather thin receiving corps, but it won’t make a difference if Smith is ineffective. I wouldn’t risk Bruce or Bryant Johnson as anything more than a WR4, maybe a low-end WR3 if you are adventurous on draft day. They may surprise is Smith becomes the next Joe Montana, but it’s too big an if. Arnaz Battle actually put up the Niners’ best receiving numbers this year, but does Bruce’s arrival displace him? Keep tabs on him during training camp, he’s a WR4 if he stays integral to the offense.

TIGHT ENDS: Vernon Davis is a sleeper TE1 pick — his continued improvement would shoot him into the ranks of elite tight ends. Again, there are so many good tight ends this year, he could drop to a TE2 and be a steal there.

KICKER: How’s this as an indication how bad San Francisco’s offense was last year: In 15 games, Joe Nedney scored just 73 points. And that was with going 17-for-19 in field goals. If the Niners’ offense does turn around, he’s a K2; otherwise, avoid on draft day.

Posted on 13th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: St. Louis

Can the Rams’ trio of fantasy studs stay healthy throughout 2008? If so, three monster seasons might be ahead.

QUARTERBACK: Marc Bulger missed four games last year and was rather ineffective in the other 12. Still, he has the potential to be one of the five best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. He’s definitely a QB1, but don’t take him over surer bets — he’s a lower-tier QB1.

RUNNING BACKS: I could almost write the same first sentence about Jackson as I did for Bulger: He missed four games last year and was rather ineffective in the other 12. Jackson, however, had his moments, scoring five touchdowns and rushing for 1,002 yards. He topped the century mark only twice, but topped 85 yards rushing seven times. His receiving numbers wereway down, but that should improve as his and Bulger’s health improves. Jackson is still a first-round running back, maybe even top-five if you’re confident. He’s worth the risk. Travis Minor and Antonio Pittman aren’t worth drafting as handcuffs; fullback Brian Leonard has little preseason fantasy value, either.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Torry Holt might no longer one of the top three fantasy receivers, but he’s still a strong WR1 who will top 1,000 yards and score 6-10 touchdowns. The more interesting St. Louis WR is Drew Bennett, who moves into the shoes of longtime Rams receiver Isaac Bruce (now with San Francisco). If Bennett steps up, he’ll put up numbers comparable to Bruce, perhaps 60 receptions, 700 yards and 5-7 TDs. That’s solid WR3 territory, if not sleeper WR2 land. It’s a big step, however, so don’t overreach.

TIGHT ENDS: Randy McMichael delivered an average TE season in 2007 — in fact, his numbers were down from 2006 when he played in Miami. In the meantime, several other fantasy tight ends passed him by. He’s a solid TE2 who might surprise with some TE1 stats, but most likely, expect similar numbers as last season.

KICKER: Josh Brown moves from Seattle, where he scored 127 points last season and made 82.4 percent of his field goals, to St. Louis, which should have just as potent an offense and plays indoors. For sure, he’s a starting fantasy kicker, among the top five in the league.

Posted on 12th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Arizona

Journeying to the NFC West, I’ll start with the Wide Receiver Show otherwise known as the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards may be the best example on how a bad NFL team can produce good fantasy players. OK, Arizona wasn’t that bad last year, but at some point, with the offensive weapons it has, the Cardinals have to be a playoff contender, right?

QUARTERBACK: With Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, you would think the Cardinals’ starting quarterback would be a sure QB1. Arizona shoots holes in that theory with Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner. Leinart’s injury problems and inconsistency and Warner’s age make them risky starting fantasy quarterbacks. Heck, there’s no guarantee Leinart will even start this fall. Whoever does start can be considered a QB2, but be ready to jump on the backup if your two QBs go down.

RUNNING BACKS: He’s not that old, but people had considered Edgerrin James washed up. Then he topped 1,200 yards and scored seven touchdowns in 2007. No, he might not ever put up the numbers he delivered in Indy, but he’s in Arizona, not Indy, where 100-yard games were easier to come by (he only turned in three last year). He may not be a first-rounder anymore, but if he puts up similar numbers, he’s a solid starting fantasy RB, and a good find in the third or fourth round.

WIDE RECEIVERS: When they are healthy and scoring touchdowns, Fitzgerald and Boldin are WR1s. Fitzgerald was mostly healthy and put up monster numbers, including 10 TDs. Despite missing four games, Boldin delivered decent yards and nine touchdowns. Fitzgerald is clearly an WR1, Boldin is risky as your top receiver but more than adequate as your No. 2. Rookie Early Doucet might be a very late-round sleeper — could he step into the shoes of the Big Two should one of them get injured?

TIGHT ENDS: Leonard Pope only caught 23 passes last year, but five were for touchdowns. His low reception and yard totals don’t justify him as a starting fantasy tight end, but he’s a perfect backup — someone who might get a touchdown for you on your TE1’s bye week.

KICKER: Neil Rackers’ insane season of 2005 is a distant memory after making just 70 percent of his field goals last year. His points slid down to 110, dropping him to K2 territory. Seriously, that monster season might have been simply an aberration.

Posted on 7th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Washington

The Redskins are a team full of risky picks: their fantasy players can either turn in the best seasons of their career, sputter or get injured (more so than other teams, of course). Jason Campbell might be a fantasy star someday, but will it be in 2008?

QUARTERBACK: In 13 games last year, Campbell threw for 2,700 yards and 12 touchdowns. The TD numbers are low, but he only tossed 11 interceptions and showed some poise. He’s a sleeper to have a breakout fantasy season, but not enough of a sleeper to make him your starting quarterback. Consider him a QB2 with potential.

RUNNING BACKS: When he’s healthy, Clinton Portis is a decent fantasy running back. Though he didn’t garner his first 100-yard game until Week 9 (and he topped the century mark only four times), he still finished the year with 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. There are more reliable top-flight running backs out there, but Ports is a solid RB2 and probably won’t drop out of most drafts’ second round. Portis’ injury-free season sent Ladell Betts crashing back to Earth, as the backup rushed for about 800 yards less in 2007 than 2006. He’s good insurance for Portis, but not worth the risk as anything more than an RB5 on his own.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santana Moss and Antwan Randle El turned in some decent yardage and reception numbers last year, but lacked in touchdowns, mostly because Campbell didn’t throw many, and when he did, they went to tight end Chris Cooley. Theoretically, Moss’ and Randle El’s TD numbers should improve, but not enough to push them into the land of WR2s. But both are solid WR3s, with Moss my first choice among the two.

TIGHT ENDS: It’s official — Cooley is an elite fantasy TE. He was Campbell’s favorite target in 2007, finishing with 66 receptions, 781 yards and eight touchdowns. Expect similar numbers in 2008, and with tight ends so deep, don’t be surprised if you Cooley is the sixth or seventh TE taken — he’s a steal if he drops.

KICKER: Shaun Suisham scored 116 points and made 82.9 percent of his field goals in 2007, qualifying him as a low-end starting fantasy kicker or a solid K2. If Washington’s offense takes off, start him every week.

Posted on 6th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: New York Giants

The Giants were surprise Super Bowl winners last season, and achieved their title without any fantasy mega-stars. Don’t expect any nutty fantasy performances this year, either, but some solid players who should deliver again.

QUARTERBACK: Yes, Eli Manning led the Giants to a Super Bowl victory, but from a statistical standpoint, his 2007 wasn’t much different from 2006 or 2005 (in fact, his stats were slightly worse than 2005). Remember that on draft day: barring a bust-out fantasy season, he’s a shaky QB1 but an outstanding QB2.

RUNNING BACKS: In his first season as the Giants’ top RB after Tiki Barber’s retirement, Brandon Jacobs topped 1,000 yards but only rushed for four touchdowns and missed five games. When healthy, he’s an RB1, but I wouldn’t risk him as more as a top-flight RB2, that second running back owners who draft late in the first round pick up on the way back in the second. Getting a handcuff for Jacobs is a wise move, but whom? Derrick Ward filled in admirably when Jacobs was injured early in the season; Ahmad Bradshaw has potential; and Reuben Droughns put up veteran numbers with six TDs. Keep an eye on training camp to see who might be the odd man (men) out, and don’t expect the backup to be more than a fantasy RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Plaxico Burress improved his touchdown numbers from 2006, scoring a career-high 12, and caught 70 passes for 1,025, which was on par with past seasons. I’m not convinced he’s will score 12 TDs again, but he’s still a strong WR2, maybe even a low-end WR1, particularly if Manning improves his numbers. Amani Toomer put up solid stats but only scored three touchdowns in 2007, he’s a good WR4. David Tyree had his incredible catch during the Super Bowl, but until he supplants Toomer, he’s nothing more than a late-, late-round sleeper — don’t draft him on name alone. Steve Smith might be a sleeper, too, as an in-season pickup.

TIGHT ENDS: Has Jeremy Shockey peaked at age 27? He was having a below-average season when he got injured, only finishing with 57 receptions, 619 yards and 3 TDs. He’s too good to be a TE2, but other tight ends have passed him by at TE1. If you end up with Shockey, make sure you have a competent backup.

KICKER: Forget about Lawrence Tynes’ missed field goals in the NFC Championship: He was an accurate kicker in 2007, missing just 4 of 27 FGs in his first year in New York. He might not be among the top tier of fantasy kickers, but he’s a solid second option.

Posted on 5th July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Philadelphia

Continuing through the NFC East, we come to the Eagles, whose fantasy fortunes mostly rest on the shoulders of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. If they stay healthy, they’ll put up big numbers and pull some of their teammates along to fantasy success. If they don’t — and history shows they sometimes haven’t — it will be another frustrating year in Philly.

QUARTERBACK: Donovan McNabb is still the Eagles’ QB, and he’s still a sound fantasy performer when he plays. His TD numbers were down a little — 19 in 14 games — but he always has the potential as to turn in a monster season … or be a minor bust. Assuming he stays healthy, he might approach 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs, easily making him a mid-range QB1. Remember, however, he hasn’t played all 16 games since 2003.

RUNNING BACKS: Brian Westbrook missed only one game last year, rushed for 1,333 yards and caught 91 passes for 771 yards. He also scored 12 touchdowns. His injury history can be a little scary, but you can’t pass up those numbers: He’s a top-10 RB, if not top-five. Correll Buckhalter isn’t the worst handcuff (313 yards and four TDs last year), but outside of Westbrook insurance, he’s no more than an RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After leaving St. Louis, Kevin Curtis enjoyed a breakout year with 77 receptions, 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. With a healthy McNabb, Curtis is a solid WR2 and can easily repeat those numbers. Reggie Brown also turned in a solid season, and though not an every-week fantasy starter, is a decent WR4.

TIGHT ENDS: L.J. Smith struggled last season with injuries, a year after scoring five touchdowns. Even healthy, there’s enough depth throughout the league at the position that he’s no more than a TE2, though a sleeper TE2 at that.

KICKER: David Akers’ points were just average among kickeres last year, and he made 75 percent of his field goals — his third consecutive season under 82 percent. It’s tough to say if his best years are behind him (he did convert a career-high four FGs of more than 50 yards), but to play it safe, I wouldn’t tab him as more as a low-end K1 or a solid K2.

Posted on 3rd July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy preview: Dallas

Moving into the NFC East, I’ll start with perhaps the most loaded fantasy team in the NFC: the Cowboys. They are a little thin at receiver, which conceivably might affect Terrell Owens’ number if he’s keyed in too much. But I doubt Dallas will let it come to that, setting up another big season for T.O.

QUARTERBACK: What can you say about Tony Romo, other than after Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, he’s the top fantasy QB in the league. He might get drafted as high as the late second round in some leagues, and expect another year of 30-plus TDs.

RUNNING BACKS: Marion Barber III turned in another big touchdown year with 10, and rushed for a career-high 975 yards. Though Julius Jones is gone from the Dallas backfield, expect another RB platoon, this time with rookie Felix Jones. Until he can amass more yards, Barber is still no better than an lower-end RB1, but if this is his breakout yardage year, he could become one of the top five running backs in the league. My hunch is he will put up numbers similar to 2007, as the new Jones will assume the same role the old Jones did. Felix is probably an RB4, and a good handcuff for Barber if he doesn’t cannibalize too many TDs.

WIDE RECEIVERS: If not for Randy Moss, Owens would be the top fantasy WR going into 2008. Barring injury or ego episode, he’ll continue the success shared with Romo and put up gaudy WR1 numbers again. Patrick Crayton had a decent season in 2007, but can he remain a good complement to T.O.? If you think he will, he’s a WR3; if not, he’s a solid WR4. I’m not sure how to rate Terry Glenn if he returns to the Boys — I think Crayton is firmly entrenched as Dallas second receiver, meaning Glenn is no better than a fantasy WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Part of the reason Dallas can be a little thin at WR is Jason Witten, who some might argue is the best tight end in the league after Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. He’s a no-brainer TE1, and though he might not get 96 receptions again, he’ll put up great numbers nonetheless.

KICKER: Another reason you shouldn’t stress out over kickers: Nick Folk came out of nowhere to be one of the top Ks in the league, scoring 131 points and going 14-for-14 on FGs from 30 to 49 yards. With Dallas’ potent offense, he’ll be a top-five kicker on draft day.

Posted on 29th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 3 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Detroit

Which Lions team will show up in 2008 — the one that started last season 6-2, or the one that finished 1-7? And will the offense put up gaudy numbers without Mike Martz?

QUARTERBACK: Jon Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2007, though he did toss 20 interceptions. Despite the big yards, he’s still no more than a QB2 in my book. Maybe I’m being too harsh, but I don’t trust Kitna to deliver consistent QB1 numbers week after week.

RUNNING BACKS: Kevin Jones is gone, Tatum Bell is always a question mark, and Kevin Smith is a rookie. The Lions only rushed for 1,288 yards all season, less than Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson did in 14 games. Smith is penciled in as the starter, he’s a risky choice as an RB3 given this offense’s history. Still, he’s a worthwhile sleeper if you are confident with your top two running backs. Bell is a late-draft RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Detroit’s receiver corps is an embarrassment of riches, yet with no WR1s. Roy Williams seemed headed into that realm last year (especially after his 204-yard game in Week 3), then his numbers faltered, then he missed the last month of the season. He’s the team’s best receiver, but I’d be nervous with taking higher than a low-end WR2. Shaun McDonald and Calvin Johnson are solid WR3s, and Mike Furrey is a decent pick as a WR4. All four are solid draft-day picks, just not as your stud receiver.

TIGHT ENDS: I saw this stat somewhere: Detroit tight ends were thrown to 39 times in 2007. Tony Gonzalez probably sees more passes in three games. The only draft-day option is Dan Campbell, who is no more than a TE3.

KICKER: Yes, Jason Hanson is still kicking for the Lions. Though not a top-flight kicker, he’s a solid bye-week option.

Posted on 27th June 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »