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Fantasy preview: Kansas City

The biggest fantasy question for the Chiefs is whether Larry Johnson can return to his form of 2005 and 2006. A big season from Johnson might take pressure off the passing game — or be an indication the passing game is ineffective, even with Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe catching balls.

QUARTERBACK: Brodie Croyle enters the season as the Chiefs’ starter of Damon Huard. Croyle only needs to be competent enough so Johnson doesn’t wear down over the course of the season. In fantasy terms, that’s a low expectation, meaning Croyle is nothing more than a QB3.

RUNNING BACKS: The combined quagmire of holdout and injury limited Johnson to eight games, 158 carries, 559 yards and 3 touchdowns. But he did have his moments in 2007, as well as catching 30 passes. Provided he’s fresh, Johnson could uncork another impressive season, but given the more recent history, don’t take a chance on him higher than a low-end RB1. Backup Kolby Smith is almost mandatory insurance for Johnson owners and a sleeper RB5 otherwise.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dwayne Bowe delivered an impressive rookie season with 70 receptions, 995 yards and 5 touchdowns. He should equal or better those numbers in 2008 and is a solid WR3, maybe even a WR2, on draft day. After Bowe, however, it’s slim pickings, with Devard Darling barely a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Gonzalez may not be the absolute best fantasy tight end in the league anymore, but he still is putting up impressive numbers. Expect another year of the upper echelon of fantasy TEs, with around 1,000 yards receiving and 5-7 TDs.

KICKER: It’s Billy Cundiff or Nick Novak as the Chiefs’ kicker in 2008. Whenver a mediocre offense features a kicking battle between two mediocre kickers, avoid whoever wins on draft day.

Posted on 5th August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Tennessee

The Titans were an odd bunch in 2007 — a playoff team with barely any fantasy starters. Not many will start for fantasy owners at the beginning of 2008, either.

QUARTERBACK: Vince Young vaulted to a QB1 after his impressive rookie season, but he sank to lower numbers in passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, as well as throwing more interceptions. Though his running skills far surpass the average NFL quarterback, he’s not the second coming of Michael Vick. Young will become a better passer, but not enough to be taken as a QB1 on draft day. Maybe Young is headed down the Troy Aikman highway — a impressive NFL quarterback who displays leadership but just doesn’t display the fantasy stats to match.

RUNNING BACKS: LenDale White emerged from the Titans’ running back committee to finish with 1,110 yards and seven touchdowns. I’m not convinced he can repeat that, but he’s still a strong RB3, maybe even a lower-tier RB2 if he can put up similar numbers. Backing White up are Chris Henry and rookie Chris Johnson. Both have speed but are too unproven to risk as anything more than an RB5, if that.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Titans don’t have much fantasy talent here, with Justin Gage and Roydell Williams pegged as starters and Justin McCareins also in tow. Gage caught 55 passes for 750 yards and 2 touchdowns last season; Williams also caught 55 passes, for 719 yards and 4 TDs — but neither is more than a WR4. Williams is currently sidelined while recovering from a broken ankle, giving McCareins an opportunity — he might be worth a shot as a WR5 on draft day.

TIGHT END: Alge Crumpler escaped Atlanta and becomes perhaps Tennessee’s most reliable receiving option. He’s being tabbed as a middle-tier TE1 sleeper in some rankings, but resist taking him too soon as your TE1. With Crumpler’s arrival, Bo Scaife drops to a lower-end TE2 or a TE3.

KICKER: Rob Bironas uncorked a dream fantasy season, scoring 133 points and converting 35 of 39 field goals. You would think the Titans would get into the end zone more, meaning we won’t see as many FGs, but Bironas remains a fantasy starter just behind that top tier of kickers.

Posted on 2nd August 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy preview: Jacksonville

A year ago, there was uncertainty at quarterback before the Jaguars named David Garrard as starter. This year, the only uncertainty is how much of a fantasy force Garrard could become.

QUARTERBACK: Garrard missed four games last year, so his final numbers of 2,509 yards and 18 touchdowns don’t seem so impressive. But that 102.2 passer rating can’t be overlooked, even if it’s not a fantasy statistic. True, Garrard likely will throw a few more interceptions than the amazinly three he tossed last year, but I think 3,500 yards and 22 TDs are realistic projections. But is he a starting fantasy QB? If you are the type of owner that waits rounds to draft a QB1, you could do much worse than Garrard as your starter. But the Jags are still a run-first team, relegating Garrard to a strong QB2.

RUNNING BACKS: The running back by committee rambled on in 2007, with Maurice Jones-Drew rushing for 768 yards and 9 touchdowns, and Fred Taylor defying logic to finish with 1,202 yards and 5 TDs. Expect the RBBC to continue, with Jones-Drew improving his yardage numbers a little. He’s an RB2, with Taylor an RB3 with maybe a TD or two less.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Any hopes of Reggie Williams repeating his 10-touchdown season of 2007 might have been derailed when he reinjured his knee this week. Surgery is scheduled, but there is no timetable for his return yet. For now, be wary of drafting him as one of your starting receivers. That injury bumps the value of Jerry Porter, Troy Williamson, Dennis Northcutt and Matt Jones. Maybe Porter will emerge in Williams’ place and might be worth a chance as a WR3. As for Williamson, Northcutt and Jones, select none higher than a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis might be a sleeper tight end for 2008, but he’s still no more than a TE2 on draft day.

KICKER: Josh Scobee only played half a season but still scored 62 points and made 12 of 13 field goals. In a full season, he’s a reliable starting fantasy kicker.

Posted on 1st August 2008
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Fantasy preview: Houston

The Texans improved to 8-8 last season, suggesting maybe it was all David Carr’s fault. Houston features two quality quarterbacks, no strong fantasy RBs and a budding star in Andre Johnson.

QUARTERBACKS: Matt Schaub amassed solid numbers in 10 games, though only 9 touchdowns, before his season ended to injury. Sage Rosenfels stepped in and tossed 15 TDs. The Texans are going with Schaub, who is a strong QB2 with QB1 potential, particularly with a healthy Andrew Johnson. If your league allows a third quarterback, Rosenfels is a solid handcuff for Schaub as well as a sleeper if he’s pressed back into service.

RUNNING BACKS: The running game should improve, but with whom: The oft-injured Ahman Green, the newly acquired Chris Brown or rookie Steve Slaton. Whoever emerges as the featured back should be considered an RB3. The backup becomes an RB5, with the third candidate, likely Slaton, someone to keep an eye on once the season begins.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Johnson will benefit from a full season, both from him and Schaub, and is a good risk as a low-end WR1 for 2008. The Texans’ other receivers should also excel again, with Kevin Walter a decent WR4 (amybe even a sleeper WR3) and Andre Davis a solid WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels is oh so close to being a TE1, with 63 receptions for 768 yards, but he only scored three touchdowns last year. He might find the end zone more often in 2008, branding him a sleeper TE1, but otherwise count on him as a top TE2.

KICKER: Kris Brown uncorked starting kicker numbers, scoring 115 points and converting 86.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, including all five 50-yarders he tried. He will be a lower-end K1 again.

Posted on 31st July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Indianapolis

Vacation is over: Not just mine, but the breaks of NFL players who are back in training camps. I’m going to finish up the team-by-team previews, moving to the AFC South today, then post another set of fantasy rankings of the preseason ramps up. Just 35 days until the season opens!

The Colts feature sure fantasy bets, with only Marvin Harrison’s uncertainty clouding their roster.

QUARTERBACK: With Tom Brady’s astounding season in 2007, Peyton Manning is no longer the top fantasy QB, but he’s still as sure a choice as any quarterback in the league over the past years. He’s the next QB pick after Brady — likely in the second round — and expect another year of at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS: Is Joseph Addai the next RB on the board after LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson? Some sources think so, though I think he’s closer to about No. 5 but still a clear RB1. After a blazing start in 2007, he slowed down to finish with 1,072 and an impressive 12 touchdowns, along with 41 receptions and 3 TD catches. Expect similar TD and reception numbers and a bump in rushing yards. Kenton Keith delivered more-than-adequate numbers as Addai’s backup, enough to consider him as a sleeper RB4, but will the return of Dominic Rhodes cut into Keith’s field time? Consider both as RB5s.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It’s been a rough 12 months for Harrison, and his days as a major fantasy force might be over. If he somehow overcomes his knee problems and off-field issues, he might be worthy as a WR3 on draft day. But it’s too big a risk, particularly if you are not confident of your top two receivers. Take Harrison as a WR4 or WR5, and be ready to release him if his season goes south. Oh, there is this other receiver in Indy, Reggie Wayne, who caught 104 passes for 1,510 yards and 10 TDs last year. He’s a WR1 again, perhaps the next receiver taken after Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. With Harrison’s demise, Anthony Gonzalez becomes a vogue sleeper pick, maybe as a WR3. Don’t over-reach, but don’t be surprised if he finishes with about 50 receptions and 5-7 TDs.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark picked up the receiving-touchdown slack from Harrison, scoring 11 times, with 58 receptions and 616 yards. He might not put up those TD numbers again, but he is still a solid TE1 from whom you can expect similar receptions and yards.

KICKER: With the Indy offense, a dome and a warm-weather division, 35-year-old Adam Viniatieri remains a starting, top-five kicker.

Posted on 31st July 2008
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 4 Comments »

Fantasy preview: New York Jets

Take away the Jets’ two productive receivers, and New York might rival Miami in terms of fantasy wasteland. Will a revamped offensive line help?

QUARTERBACKS: Kellen Clemens or Chad Pennington? No matter who starts, neither is better than a QB3.

RUNNING BACKS: Thomas Jones might have wished he stayed in Chicago after rushing for a respectable 1,119 yards but only one TD. The Jets have upgraded their offensive line, so Jones’ numbers might improve, but even if, he’s a stretch at RB2, but a good option for your RB3. If Jones busts, Leon Washington waits, though his numbers were down in 2007. He’s no more than an RB4, likely better as an RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jerricho Cotchery put up great reception and yard stats but low TD numbers. Laveranues Coles scored six TDs but missed four games and delivered only half the yards as his teammate. Put them together and you’d have a great WR1. Separately, they are good WR3 options, with maybe Coles achieving WR2 numbers as the season progresses.

TIGHT ENDS: Chris Baker amassed OK TE2 stats last year — 41 receptions, 409 yards and 3 TDs — but don’t expect much improvement for 2008, meaning Baker remains a low-end TE2.

KICKER: Mike Nugent scored 110 points in 2007, not bad for kicking with an anemic offense. He was moderately accurate, making 80.6 percent of his field goals. On a different team, Nugent might be a starting fantasy kicker, but he’s better as a backup while with the Jets.

Posted on 27th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Buffalo

The Bills defintely sport fantasy potential, but also sport the potential to frustrate. And if he stays a safe driver off the field, Marshawn Lynch might turn into a fantasy star.

QUARTERBACKS: Trent Edwards seems to have cemented the starter role over J.P. Losman, but that unlikely will translate into big fantasy numbers, at least initially. He’s a low-end QB2 or a QB3, but keep an eye on him if the Buffalo offense suddenly explodes.

RUNNING BACKS: Lynch’s rookie season was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson’s rookie season in Minnesota. All Lynch did was rush for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing three games. Expect his numbers, especially his TD totals to jump. He’s an RB1 candidate who might be ready for more greatness. Fred Jackson gained 300 yards and averaged 5.2 yards a carry in Lynch’s absence last season, and is a sleeper handcuff to Lynch.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The story of Lee Evans’ fantasy career: A big game one week, misery the next. There was more of the misery than the big games last year, with a career-low five touchdowns. He’s talented enough not to pass up as a WR2 and hope for the best. Josh Reed caught 51 passes for 578 yards, but no touchdowns — he’ll likely score at least one this year, but he’s no more than a WR5 on draft day, an occasion in which you shouldn’t worry about Roscoe Parrish.

TIGHT ENDS: Robert Royal scored three TDs but only caught 25 passes for 248 yards in 2007. Those numbers likely won’t improve this year, so don’t rely him as more than a lower-tier TE2.

KICKER: Rian Lindell was like Jay Feely in Miami — accurate, but low points because of his team’s anemic offense. The Bills aren’t as anemic, but Lindell remains no better than a second kicker.

Posted on 24th July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Miami

Compared to the Patriots, the rest of the AFC East is a fantasy wasteland, and nowhere is that abyss more evident than in Miami. Other than Ronnie Brown, don’t expect to see many Dolphins in your league’s lineups every week.

QUARTERBACKS: Whether Josh McCown remains the starter or John Beck or rookie Chad Henne step up, none is anything more than a QB3. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

RUNNING BACKS: Ronnie Brown was putting up monster numbers last year before his season ended. When healthy, he’s RB1 material, but many sources are rating him lower. If you risk him as your RB1, be confident in your next two running backs — but I like the risk. Otherwise, he’s a solid choice as an RB2. Ricky Williams is said to be in great shape, but I’m skeptical he actually resurrect his career again. Take him maybe as an RB4 or RB5, or as insurance if you own Brown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Ernest Wilford arrives from Jacksonville, and Ted Ginn Jr. enters his second season. Neither is more than a WR4, simply because of the morass at quarterback.

TIGHT ENDS: In his first year with the Dolphins, David Martin set a career high for yards (303) and scored two touchdowns. But those stats are only TE2 numbers, and a lower-end TE2 at that. Don’t expect more.

KICKER: Jay Feely delivered an accurate season, making 21 of 23 field goals and all 26 extra points. But that added to only 89 points, and don’t expect that total to improve much with Miami’s offense. A K2 at the most.

Posted on 23rd July 2008
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Fantasy preview: New England

Switching to the AFC finally, I’ll start with the least successful 18-1 team ever: the Patriots. Even if the Pats don’t approach their ludicrously gaudy fantasy numbers last year, plainly gaudy numbers are still possible.

QUARTERBACK: After Tom Brady’s record-breaking season in 2007, the only question for 2008 is how high in the first round should he be selected. If he just delivers 80 percent of his numbers from last season, that’s consistent enough to be a top-five overall pick in my book. He might not break any records again, but I think he’ll be focused enough to throw about 40 touchdowns and top 4,000 yards.

RUNNING BACKS: After being hampered by injury, Laurence Maroney finished the season strong, with the Patriots turning to him as opposing defenses started figuring out the passing offense. He will contribute more in 2008 and might be a sleeper first-round pick, but he’s a safer choice in the second round. Sammy Morris might be worth a late-round pickup as a RB5 or a handcuff; Kevin Faulk isn’t a draft-day option.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Randy Moss delivered the greatest fantasy performance by a WR last season, and like Brady, even if he puts up 80 percent of his 2007 stats, he’s worth a first-round pick, albeit later first round. Amazingly, the Pats possess two WR1s — Wes Welker finished 2007 with 112 receptions, 1,175 yards and 8 touchdowns. If defenses stay focused on Moss, Welker’s 2008 numbers will be similar, warranting WR1 status. With Donte’ Stallworth gone, Jabar Gaffney will see more balls thrown his way and should improve on the 36 receptions, 449 yards and 5 TDs from last year — he’s a sleeper WR2, definitely a WR3 if his numbers go up. Chad Jackson’s numbers might improve, too — he might be worth a shot as a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson missed four games in 2007 but still scored six touchdowns. One of these years he will jump into the TE elite, but for now, he’s more of a lower-tier TE1. Marcus Pollard will see enough passes to be a low-end TE2 or a strong TE3.

KICKER: A beneficiary of the Patriots’ offense, Stephen Gostkowski scored 137 points last year, even with only 21 field goals. That maths out to 74 PATs — impressive, but actually detrimental if your league gives extra points for longer field goals. I would think he’ll get a few more field goals in 2008 and is easily one of the three best kickers in the league.

WIDE RECEI

RUNNING BACKS:

Posted on 23rd July 2008
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Fantasy preview: Carolina

We finish the NFC with the Panthers, a team that drove fantasy owners mad last season. With a healthy Jake Delhomme, Carolina’s offense should return to normal.

QUARTERBACK: Delhomme threw eight touchdowns in three games before his season prematurely ended. Though I believe he’s a smidge risky as a QB1, he definitely can play like one and might put up 3,500 yards and 22 TDs in 2008. Those are QB1 numbers, but on draft day, take him as a QB2 and don’t be surprised if passes that expectation.

RUNNING BACKS: The trendy rookie to top 1,000 yards rushing is Jonathan Stewart, a 5-foot-11, 230-pound tank. But he will be sharing carries with DeAngelo Williams, who gets a chance to be the Panthers’ premier back after the departure of DeShaun Foster. Though many predict Stewart will supplant Williams as the team’s main man, I’m guessing they will form a RBBC (barring a Williams injury, of course). That makes both of them RB3s.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith’s numbers were down without Delhomme and WR threats on the other side of the field. That’s if you can call 1,002 yards and seven TDs down for the WR1. With his QB back, and the additions of D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad, Smith will rebound to about 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. That might be optimistic, but consider this: Smith caught four of Delhomme’s eight TDs in 2007. Hackett and Muhammad will put up WR5 numbers, but make no mistake, Smith is the main show in Carolina.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeff King might benefit a little from Delhomme’s return, but he’s a TE2, nothing more.

KICKER: John Kasay’s points were down along with the Carolina offense, but he’s still an accurate, reliable kicker. Take him as a K2.

Posted on 22nd July 2008
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