SMART STARTS
— Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: I don’t know if the Dolphins will keep directly snapping to him, but he’s back to his old form and should continue that success against the Texasn.

— Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: With Brian Westbrook out, Philly will be passing downfield more. Expect some big numbers against San Francisco.

— Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: If Dallas’ defense was better, Warner wouldn’t be a must-start, but this game has the makings of a barn-burner or a big Cowboys victory — either way, he’ll be throwing, a lot.

A GOOD NIGHT’S REST
— Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: Slaton is emerging as Houston’s most reliable offensive option. He has some sleeper potential this week to top 100 yard rushing again and score a touchdown.

— Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: With the Rams visiting, Washington should cruise, and Campbell will thrive with 250 yards passing and a couple touchdowns, at least.

— Brett Favre, QB, Jets: He won’t throw six touchdowns again, but after a bye week, at home against the hapless Bengals might get at least three.

WOULDN’T BE PRUDENT
— Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: He’s been solid this season after shoulder surgery, but something’s telling me he won’t have his best game on the road at Tampa Bay.

— Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: Seattle is still understaffed at WR, and now Matt Hasselbeck might not play. Jones can’t do it all, especially when he’s needed to do it all. Bench him this week.

— Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Anderson is this close to being a fantasy bust. He’ll cross that line against the Giants on Monday night.

This week’s biggest jump belongs to the Bears, six notches to No. 13. Seattle suffered the biggest fall, seven spots to No. 25

1. Giants (4-0)
2. Titans (5-0)
3. Cowboys (4-1)
4. Patriots (3-1)
5. Steelers (4-1)
6. Redskins (4-1)
7. Buccaneers (4-1)
8. Panthers (4-1)
9. Broncos (4-1)
10. Bills (4-1)
11. Colts (2-2)
12. Bears (3-2)
13. Eagles (2-3)
14. Chargers (2-3)
15. Jaguars (2-3)
16. Jets (2-2)
17. Saints (2-3)
18. Cardinals (3-2)
19. Falcons (3-2)
20. Dolphins (2-2)
21. Packers (2-3)
22. Ravens (2-2)
23. Vikings (2-3)
24. 49ers (2-3)
25. Seahawks (1-4)
26. Browns (1-3)
27. Raiders (1-3)
28. Chiefs (1-4)
29. Texans (0-4)
30. Lions (0-4)
31. Bengals (0-5)
32. Rams (0-4)

Another file from the fickle fates of fantasy football:

I needed Reggie Bush to have a good game tonight. One touchdown would give one of my teams a victory.

He scored two touchdowns — both on punt returns, and in this league (as in most leagues), punt return touchdowns go to the team that owns the defense/special teams, not the individual player.

So yes, Reggie Bush had a good game. Unfortunately, he didn’t have a good game offensively. Just another example how fantasy football can drive you slowly mad.

The picks, and the moderate success, continue.

WEEK 5
Tennessee over BALTIMORE
CAROLINA over Kansas City
Chicago over DETROIT
GREEN BAY over Atlanta
Indianapolis over HOUSTON
San Diego over MIAMI
N.Y. GIANTS over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA over Washington
DENVER over Tampa Bay
Buffalo over ARIZONA
DALLAS over Cincinnati
New England over SAN FRANCISCO
JACKSONVILLE over Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS over Minnesota
Last week: 8-5 Season: 38-22

The NFL announced the Boss will be playing at the Super Bowl XLIII. No, the league isn’t predicting the Giants, with tight end Kevin Boss, will be playing in February, but rather that Bruce Springsteen will perform the halftime show.

My reaction: frakkin’ excellent! I’m making a prediction on 3-4 songs he’ll sing: Born to Run, The Rising, Hungry Heart and Dancing in the Dark.

Four weeks in, and already two coaches have been fired. Can Romeo Crennel and Marvin Lewis be far behind?

More from Week 4:

– Just when I was writing off Brett Favre, he throws a career-high six touchdowns. Does it count if it was just the Cardinals, who gave the Jets so many opportunities thanks to Kurt Warner’s six turnovers? Oh, one other thing — the Jets’ throwback jerseys weren’t so bad, at least better than the Steelers’.

– It appears the Titans’ defense is that good, and will continue to look that good with Baltimore, a bye and Kansas City ahead (if it can stop a seemingly revitalized Larry Johnson). Their Week 8 Monday Night game at Indianapolis will be a true test, because Tennessee can’t win with that defense alone.

– Maybe the Bears were being written off too soon after their last two losses — they could easily be 4-0 right now instead of 2-2. Oh, and those two wins are against Indianapolis and Philadelphia. If the Packers or Vikings don’t recover quickly enough, Chicago might win the NFC North.

– Finally, what kind of courage Matt Bryant displayed by kicking for the Bucs on Sunday (and helping them win) just a few days after his infant son died? That kiss he blew to the sky, to his son, leaves me at a loss for words.

Six teams are bye this week — be prepared to get a good look a QB2s and RB4s.

SMART STARTS
– Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos. Denver’s red-hot offense will torch another opponent, even on the road. Expect 300 yards and 2-3 TDs from Cutler, who has emerged as a legitimate QB1.

– Reggie Bush, RB, Saints. He may not get the rushing yards other top fantasy running back amass, but Bush has re-emerged as New Orleans’ top offensive weapon. He’ll deliver another decent game against the 49ers.

– Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars. The Jacksonville running game started to click last week and will not disappoint against the Texans. He might not top 100 yards again, but he’ll get the ball near the goal line for one or maybe even two TDs.

DOZER DOOZIES
– Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Chicago will want to slow the game down against Philadelphia, resulting in plenty of carries for Forte, on track to be this year’s Marshawn Lynch (a rookie RB who has an impressive fantasy year but is overshadowed by a better rookie).

– Derek Anderson, RB, Browns: Anderson needs a breakout game if he wants to keep starting. He’ll get it against the Bengals; beyond that, I still think he’s going to end up as a fantasy bust.

– J.T. O’Sullivan, QB, 49ers. O’Sullivan has proved he’s no Alex Smith, and if the Niners get into a slugfest with the Saints, he could top 300 yards.

WE ARE CONCERNED
– Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He’s a tough sit, but with all the chaos in St. Louis, don’t be surprised if Jackson has a rough week against the Bills.

– Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Even if Brett Favre isn’t 100 percent, the Jets won’t be running the ball as much against the Cardinals.

– Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Houston needs to find its offense quickly; unfortunately, it won’t be at Jacksonville. Unless the Texans fall behind big, I think they will rely on Steve Slaton and the running game more than Schaub and the pass.

As I blogged yesterday, there are six unbeaten teams remaining after three weeks. So which team will go the furthest before their first loss? Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh on Monday night, then host Tennessee in Week 5, so the Ravens won’t last. The other five aren’t as obvious.

For sure, in Week 9, either the Cowboys or the Giants will be handed their first loss (barring the unforeseen, rare tie), as the two teams play each other. Buffalo plays at St. Louis and Arizona the next two weeks, then is bye, then hosts San Diego — you would think either the Cardinals or Chargers will give the Bills loss No. 1. Denver plays at Kansas City, hosts Tampa Bay, hosts Jacksonville and plays at New England; my bet is the Broncos won’t survive against a real defense and will get three in a row in the next four weeks (assuming the Patriots improve).

Tennessee’s schedule looks good: at home vs. Minnesota, at Baltimore, a bye, at Kansas City, then at home vs. Indianapolis. The Colts will be better by then, but if the Titans can win, only a Week 11 game at Jacksonville stands in their way to a really impressive record. But they need to find more offense for that to happen.

That leaves the Cowboys and Giants. Both teams stand a good chance at being 8-0 by Nov. 2, and if Dallas emerges from the showdown … it would still have to contend with road games at Washington, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to go 16-0. The Giants’ schedule is even tougher. I’m calling it now, the Cowboys will stay undefeated the longest and finish 14-2.

More musings:

– How many knockout pools were destroyed by the Patriots’ 38-13 loss to Miami? What must be disconcerting for New England fans wasn’t Matt Cassel’s play, but rather, the defense that couldn’t stop the Dolphins. I’m standing by 10-6.

– Here was a classic Brett Favre stat line: 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, no victory. Yes, he still can play, but it was that kind of performance that was happening more often before last season’s magic. And maybe, that was why the Packers were ready to let him go — they knew the magic wasn’t going to last.

– Finally, six winless teams remain: St. Louis, Kansas City, Cleveland, Houston, Cincinnati and Detroit. Of these, the Rams are in the most danger of going 0-16. Serious danger.

Tom Brady is out for the season, but can anyone say with certainty that the Patriots are screwed?

I’m going to say it: Yes, they are in trouble. Maybe it was just shock, but they had trouble holding off the Chiefs on Sunday. And though Matt Cassel didn’t mess up, he’s not the QB to lead New England to the Super Bowl. The Pats still will win their division, but with a 10-6 record and the Bills and Jets close behind. And after the Chargers, Colts and Jaguars lost Sunday, the AFC might not be as formidable as usual (but wow, did the Steelers roll). But what will hurt the most is that other teams won’t fear the Patriots like they did last year. When Brady returns in 2009, can the Pats recapture that? Or will the window of dynasty have already closed?

Unless Matt Cassel steps up, New England clearly wasn’t ready for this contingency. And if he doesn’t step up, the Pats won’t make it past the first round of the playoffs.

Ah, Week 1 always rocks. I’ve been flipping between two games and NFL Network’s Red Zone this afternoon, and it feels good to be back.

That said, I’ve made my first fantasy football panic move of the season. Tom Brady hurt his knee, and because it hasn’t been revealed how bad the injury is (and we know how forthcoming the Patriots will be to divulge that information quickly, accurately and clearly), I hurriedly picked up Matt Cassel in one of my leagues in which Brady was my starter.

Hopefully, that’s my only panic move of the day. Luckily, I own no Bengals …