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Fantasy rankings: Running backs

Moving to running backs, the top five are quite strong, with Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook and Steven Jackson nearly interchangeable. After Marion Barber, it becomes sketchier, with Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Clinton Portis injury risks, Frank Gore coming off a season from hell and Ryan Grant and Marshawn Lynch with a season or less of fantasy success under their belts. The next tier — the RB2 — are much stronger than in past years, and even the RB3s look good (for example, how bad would it be to have Edgerrin James as your bye week backup?). Perhaps all the chaos among the league’s RBs last season has created a deeper stable of talent.

RUNNING BACKS
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Joseph Addai, Colts
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
5. Steven Jackson, Rams
6. Marion Barber III, Cowboys
7. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
8. Clinton Portis, Redskins
9. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
10. Frank Gore, 49ers
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
13. Willis McGahee, Ravens
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
16. Jamal Lewis, Browns
17. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Willie Parker, Steelers
20. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
21. Darren McFadden, Raiders
22. Michael Turner, Falcons
23. LenDale White, Titans
24. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
25. Julius Jones, Seahawks
26. Thomas Jones, Jets
27. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
29. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
30. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
31. Kevin Smith, Lions
32. Matt Forte, Bears
33. Chester Taylor, Vikings
34. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
35. Selvyn Young, Broncos
36. Justin Fargas, Raiders
37. Felix Jones, Cowboys
38. Deuce McAllister, Saints
39. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
40. Ahman Green, Texans
41. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
42. Kenny Watson, Bengals
43. Chris Johnson, Titans
44. Tatum Bell, Lions
45. Ladell Betts, Redskins
46. Sammy Morris, Patriots
47. Leon Washington, Jets
48. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
49. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
50. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
51. Chris Brown, Texans
52. Pierre Thomas, Saints
53. Brandon Jackson, Packers
54. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
55. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
56. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
57. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
58. Adrian Peterson, Bears
59. Ray Rice, Ravens
60. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
61. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
62. Jacob Hester, Chargers
63. Fred Jackson, Bills
64. Derrick Ward, Giants
65. Kevin Jones, Bears
66. Michael Bush, Raiders
67. Brian Leonard, Rams
68. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
69. Jesse Chatman, Jets
70. Chris Perry, Bengals
71. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
72. Ryan Torain, Broncos
73. Andre Hall, Broncos
74. Darren Sproles, Chargers
75. Jason Wright, Browns
76. Chris Taylor, Texans
77. Chris Henry, Titans
78. Michael Pittman, Broncos
79. LaMont Jordan, Patriots
80. Reuben Droughns, Giants
81. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
82. DeShawn Wynn, Packers
83. Michael Bennett, Buccaneers
84. Brian Calhoun, Lions
85. Steve Slaton, Texans
86. Mike Hart, Colts
87. Greg Jones, Jaguars
88. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
89. Kenny Irons, Bengals
90. Antonio Pittman, Rams
91. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
92. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
93. Aaron Stecker, Saints
94. J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
95. Kenton Keith, Colts
96. Leonard Weaver, Seahawks
97. Jalen Parmele, Dolphins
98. Darius Walker, Texans
99. Garrett Wolfe, Bears
100. Michael Robinson, 49ers
101. Tony Hunt, Eagles
102. Dwayne Wright, Bills
103. Tashard Choice, Cowboys
104. Chauncey Washington, Jaguars
105. Jason Snelling, Falcons

Posted on 15th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks

Here is the first segment of updated fantasy rankings by position, beginning with quarterbacks. I like pulling in rankings from several different sources, which I did here (seven, to be exact), and I also added the rankings I compiled from the spring, tweaking when needed as circumstances changed or to fix any “what was I thinking” moments. I took the average of all those sources, made any additional tweaks to account for injuries or waivers, and voila — my rankings were complete.

Looking at the rankings, I’m impressed with the quality of the top QBs. You can be mostly confident starting any of the top 10, with maybe the exception of Donovan McNabb and his injury risk (but healthy, he can be a fantasy machine). What’s also impressive is how many of the QB2 have upside. Philip Rivers, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, and even Vince Young, have the potential for breakout fantasy seasons, but you can keep them waiting in the wings as your backup QB.

Finally, I arbitrarily placed Brett Favre at No. 18 (he wasn’t in any fantasy publications — remember, he retired!), which was where he was around last preseason before his surprise year.
He won’t repeat his 2007 stats, not on a new team, not on a lesser team, and not at his age.

QUARTERBACKS
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
6. Derek Anderson, Browns
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
9. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
10. Jay Cutler, Broncos
11. Eli Manning, Giants
12. David Garrard, Jaguars
13. Marc Bulger, Rams
14. Philip Rivers, Chargers
15. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
16. Matt Schaub, Texans
17. Vince Young, Titans
18. Brett Favre, Jets
19. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Jon Kitna, Lions
22. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
23. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
24. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
25. Trent Edwards, Bills
26. Tavaris Jackson, Vikings
27. Alex Smith, 49ers
28. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
29. Rex Grossman, Bears
30. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
31. Kyle Boller, Ravens
32. Chris Redman, Falcons
33. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
34. Kellen Clemens, Jets
35. Matt Ryan, Falcons
36. Joe Flacco, Ravens
37. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
38. Kyle Orton, Bears
39. Josh McCown, Dolphins
40. J.P. Losman, Bills
41. Shaun Hill, 49ers
42. John Beck, Dolphins
43. Chad Henne, Dolphins
44. Todd Collins, Redskins
45. Gus Frerotte, Vikings
46. Brian Griese, Buccaneers
47. Brady Quinn, Browns
48. Damon Huard, Chiefs
49. Troy Smith, Ravens
50. Brian Brohm, Packers
51. Drew Stanton, Lions

Posted on 14th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Pittsburgh

Thirty-one teams later, we’ve come to the last team fantasy preview: the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their passing game exploded last season, but was that success just a fluke?

QUARTERBACKS: Well, was it a fluke? My hunch is yes, Ben Roethlisberger’s 32 touchdowns were atypical. In fantasy terms, he’s still a QB1 and should still pass for 22-25 TDs and 3,000 yards. But with a weakened offensive line and a running game that might find the end zone again, Big Ben won’t enjoy quite as big a season.

RUNNING BACKS: Willie Parker was infuriating last season. He led the league in rushing yards for much of the year, yet kept fumbling and only scored two touchdowns, a year after scoring 12. Those shortcomings dropped him to a fantasy RB2, but I think Parker could return to RB1 numbers, even with rookie Rashard Mendenhall backing him up. But don’t overreach, just consider Parker a solid option as a second running back, particularly if you are holding off a little for that RB2. Mendenhall might score some of the TDs left behind by the released Najeh Davenport; take the rookie as an RB4 with potential — potential if Parker doesn’t rebound.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward benefited from Roethlisberger’s big season. Despite Big Ben’s desire to have a taller receiver to target, Holmes and Ward are solid WR3 options for 2008, with the emerging Holmes a possible WR2. Nate Washington scored five touchdowns in 2007 out of just 28 receptions and but should be considered no more than a WR5 on draft day — if Roethlisberger drops back that TD total, Washington might be the odd man out.

TIGHT ENDS: Heath Miller didn’t put up many receptions or yards (47 for 566) but did score 7 touchdowns. You can’t ignore those TD numbers in eyeing Miller as a low-end TE1.

KICKER: Jeff Reed’s points (113) weren’t what you’d expect from an offense as good as seemingly good as Pittsburgh’s, but he was deady accurate, making 23 of 25 field goals (and one of those misses was beyond 50). Expect a few more points for this starting fantasy kicker.

Posted on 13th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 1 Comment »

Fantasy preview: Cincinnati

Someone was going to pass Peyton Manning as the top fantasy quarterback in the league, and the good money was on Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer. Instead, that QB was Tom Brady, while Palmer actually regressed, tossing 20 interceptions. Will Palmer rebound in 2008? Or Chad Johnson? Or Rudi Johnson. There are plenty of fantasy questions with the Bengals.

QUARTERBACK: Palmer didn’t entirely stink, passing for a career-high 4,131 yards and 26 touchdowns. But those 20 picks are difficult to overlook. If the sniping on the Bengals’ offense ends, and if Chad Johnson stays healthy and happy, there’s no reason Palmer couldn’t unleash his best season. A QB1 for sure, Palmer might be a sleeper to pick ahead of Tony Romo and Drew Brees, if you dare.

RUNNING BACKS: Before last year, Rudi Johnson was a solid RB1 for a few season. Then he pulled a hamstring last year and never quite recovered, finishing with only 497 yards and 3 touchdowns. Enter Kenny Watson, who tallied 763 yards and 7 TDs and also caught 52 passes. So who will the Bengals turn to in 2008? Pay attention during the preseason, with whomever emerging as the starter a fantasy RB3 and the backup an RB4. My early guess is that the Bengals will return to Rudi.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chad Johnson wanted to be traded and didn’t get his wish. He underwent ankle surgery in the offseason. He’s coming off a seemingly disappointing season but still finished with WR1 numbers: 93 receptions, 1,440 yards and 8 TDs (though he scored those 8 in only four weeks). I don’t see how you can not pass him up as a low-end WR1 and simply hope for the best — that his ego and ankle hold up. Oh, on the other side is another WR1 in T.J. Housmandzadeh, coming off the best season of the career. Expect another great season from Housh, particularly if Ocho Cinco doesn’t live up to expectations.

TIGHT ENDS: The Bengals acquired Ben Utecht in the offseason, and he might take some pressure off the WRs. He won’t put up TE1 numbers, but he’s a solid TE2 who might surprise as the season progresses.

KICKERS: Shayne Graham impressively scored 130 points and connected on 91.2 percent of his field-goal attempts. He’s a top-five fantasy kicker, if not top-three, and will enjoy another big season.

Posted on 12th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 7 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Cleveland

After the Browns drafted Brady Quinn last year, it was expected he would at some point take over once the team fell out of playoff contention. But that didn’t happen, as Derek Anderson uncorked great numbers and turned Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. into fantnasy stars. Anderson is clearly the man at QB, but if Cleveland finds itself struggling, will it turn to Quinn?

QUARTERBACKS: Anderson enters 2008 as a QB1, but beware, he struggled late last season. If you go with him as your starter, draft a decent backup, because Quinn, technically the future of the franchise, looms. In the meantime, expect 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns from Anderson.

RUNNING BACKS: Jamal Lewis moved to Cleveland and put up great numbers with 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. If he stays healthy, he’s a solid RB2, especially as the Browns’ offensive line continues to improve. Jason Wright isn’t quite an RB5 beyond insurance for Lewis.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Edwards lived up to his potential with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. He’ll score at least 12 TDs this year and is a second-tier WR1 (the first tier being Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne). Donte’ Stallworth arrives on the other side — his numbers should improve slightly over last year in New England, but don’t chance him as more than a WR4. Joe Jurevicius’ numbers might suffer a little with Stallworth in tow, and he’s no more than a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Winslow reached the top level of tight ends last year, despite only scoring five touchdowns. If he stays healthy enough, he’s a top-five TE and should score a few more TDs.

KICKER: Phil Dawson enjoyed the best year of his career, scoring 120 points and converting 86.7 percent of his field-goal attempts. With Cleveland’s high-scoring offense, he will deliver about 120 points again and his a lower-tier starting fantasy kicker.

Posted on 11th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 8 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Baltimore

The Ravens’ offense hit rock bottom last year, scoring only 24 touchdowns — just one more than Randy Moss. Baltimore does feature a couple fantasy weapons, but their effectiveness will be limited by the uncertainty at quarterback.

QUARTERBACKS: With Steve McNair, either Kyle Boller will step back into the starting position, Troy Smith will step up or rookie Joe Flacco will get his career going. This situation very well might turn into a quarterback by committee, meaning none of the three are worth more than a QB3 in fantasy drafts.

RUNNING BACKS: Willis McGahee delivered a decent season in his first year with the Ravens, rushing for 1,207 yards and seven touchdowns and also catching 43 passes. He’s a high-end RB2, but with his injury history, don’t risk him as your RB1. That same injury history makes rookie Ray Rice a sleeper RB5, but be ready to cut him loose if McGahee starts running wild.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Veteran Derrick Mason amassed a surprising 103 receptions, 1,087 yards and 5 TDs last year — was that a resurgence or an aberration? More likely an aberration, so don’t rely on him as more than a WR3. Mark Clayton regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards and no touchdowns, and though he’s likely improve on those numbers as Mason returns to Earth, I wouldn’t select him higher than a WR4 (more like a WR5). Demetrius Williams might be a nice in-season pickup if the offense turns things around, but avoid him on draft day.

TIGHT ENDS: A hamstring injury kept Todd Heap out of 10 games last year. When healthy, he’s a solid, productive TE1, and he should be considered such on draft day — just be confident in your TE2.

KICKER: Matt Stover sputtered to 107 points as the Ravens’ offense stagnated. He’s still an accurate kicker, and that point total theoretically should improve in 2008. Take him as a later K1 or as a strong backup.

Posted on 9th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Oakland

The Raiders are a team with much fantasy upside, but will that upside translate into good statistics in 2008?

QUARTERBACK: JaMarcus Russell will enter the season with a full training camp under his belt, unlike last year after he held out. He could be considered a long-shot sleeper QB2; if you are hoping running an NFL offense clicks for him sometime in October or November. It’s a big if, however — look at other No. 1 overall QB picks for whom it’s never clicked (Alex Smith springs to mind) — so reserve him as a late pick in your draft.

RUNNING BACKS: Classic Raiders: They give Justin Fargas a long-term deal after his best season as a pro, then draft Darren McFadden. This might be a RBBC that actually works, with the pair effectively splitting carries and staying fresh. If so, McFadden is a RB2 on draft day, Fargas a low-end RB3. Don’t reach too high for McFadden, however — even if Fargas’ numbers slip, the rookie won’t put RB1 stats this season. The odd man out is Michael Bush, who isn’t draftworthy.

WIDE RECEIVERS: More classic Raiders: Signing oft-injured Javon Walker and his questionable attitude to a big contract. Unless Russell suddenly explodes for 4,000 yards, don’t take Walker higher than a WR3. He’s not worth the risk. Ronald Curry and Drew Carter are battling for the other starting job — my guess is neither will emerge with significantly better stats than the other and are no more than low-end WR4s to start the season.

TIGHT ENDS: Zach Miller put up decent stats his rookie season and should improve this year, but he’s not quite a TE1 sleeper yet. But he’s a solid TE2 with potential.

KICKER: Sebastian Janikowski only made 71.9 percent of his field-goal attempts last season and finished with 97 points. The Raiders’ offense won’t improve that much to significantly increase his points, and it’s doubtful he’ll get much more accurate. Bottom line: He’s barely a backup fantasy kicker. Avoid.

Posted on 8th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 5 Comments »

Brett the Jet

Brett Favre, perhaps the most celebrated player in Packers history, is no longer a Packer after the team traded him to the Jets late Wednesday.

Now that the controversy is over, who was more at fault — Favre for undoing his plan to retire, or the Packers, if you believe they pressured him to retire in the first place? I saw one bit of news that apparently the Packers didn’t think Favre could lead them to the Super Bowl (as if Aaron Rogers can) after he stunk in last year’s NFC championship. Perhaps the whole mess was as much about GM Ted Thompson’s ego as Favre’s.

There is now even more pressure on Rodgers to fill Favre’s shoes. There is pressure on the Packers, whose management were content to let Favre go but will face criticism all season if the team struggles. There is pressure on Favre to show he can win with another team. This whole mess might turn out badly for everyone involved.

Posted on 7th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: NFL news, notes, and unsolicited opinions | No Comments »

Fantasy preview: Kansas City

The biggest fantasy question for the Chiefs is whether Larry Johnson can return to his form of 2005 and 2006. A big season from Johnson might take pressure off the passing game — or be an indication the passing game is ineffective, even with Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe catching balls.

QUARTERBACK: Brodie Croyle enters the season as the Chiefs’ starter of Damon Huard. Croyle only needs to be competent enough so Johnson doesn’t wear down over the course of the season. In fantasy terms, that’s a low expectation, meaning Croyle is nothing more than a QB3.

RUNNING BACKS: The combined quagmire of holdout and injury limited Johnson to eight games, 158 carries, 559 yards and 3 touchdowns. But he did have his moments in 2007, as well as catching 30 passes. Provided he’s fresh, Johnson could uncork another impressive season, but given the more recent history, don’t take a chance on him higher than a low-end RB1. Backup Kolby Smith is almost mandatory insurance for Johnson owners and a sleeper RB5 otherwise.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dwayne Bowe delivered an impressive rookie season with 70 receptions, 995 yards and 5 touchdowns. He should equal or better those numbers in 2008 and is a solid WR3, maybe even a WR2, on draft day. After Bowe, however, it’s slim pickings, with Devard Darling barely a WR5.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Gonzalez may not be the absolute best fantasy tight end in the league anymore, but he still is putting up impressive numbers. Expect another year of the upper echelon of fantasy TEs, with around 1,000 yards receiving and 5-7 TDs.

KICKER: It’s Billy Cundiff or Nick Novak as the Chiefs’ kicker in 2008. Whenver a mediocre offense features a kicking battle between two mediocre kickers, avoid whoever wins on draft day.

Posted on 5th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Fantasy free-for-all | 2 Comments »

Fantasy preview: Denver

The fantasy talent in the AFC West thins out quickly after San Diego. The Broncos once were a reliable source of an RB1, but their biggest question — again — will be who will emerge as their featured back.

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler was on his own as his first full season as an NFL starter, and he put up respectable numbers with 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns to only 14 interceptions. Expect some improvement this season — not enough to vault him into the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks, but enough to be a low-end QB1.

RUNNING BACKS: With Travis Henry and more failed drug tests now history, the Broncos likely are returning to the running back by committee that has frustrated fantasy owners since Terrell Davis retired. But Denver’s RBBCs can yield unusual results: Remember Mike Anderson’s TD surge of a few seasons ago? Selvyn Young is penciled in as the starter, with Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and rookie Ryan Torain backing him up. Keep an eye on the situation over the next month to see if Young keeps hold of the starting position or if a teammate, possibly Torain, passes him by Week 1. Whover emerges as the starter can be considered an RB3, with his primary backup coming in as an RB4 or RB5.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon Marshall exploded for 102 receptions for 1,325 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, numbers he won’t repeat simply because he’ll be suspended for the first three games of the season. That suspension drops him to from a sleeper WR1 to a WR2, but barring another off-the-field incident, he will produce in 2008. Keary Colbert, Brandon Stokley and Darrell Jackson compose the rest of Denver’s WR threats, but none is more than a WR5 or even draftworthy, though don’t be shocked if Jackson rejuvenates his career and delivers WR4 numbers. That’s a big if, however.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Scheffler put up nice numbers despite missing five games last season, but don’t risk him as a TE1 just yet. Daniel Graham still figures in the mix but at best is a TE3.

KICKER: Jason Elam left for Atlanta, and Matt Prater appears to be taking over for the Broncos. Don’t even think he can replace the departed veteran (especially at Invesco) — Prater is barely a fantasy backup on draft day.

Posted on 4th August 2008 by Joey G
Under: Bye weeks | No Comments »